Matt Lanza

Eye on the Tropics: Lull in activity expected for a bit longer

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With the formation of Fay last week, we’re off to the fastest start on record in the Atlantic basin if you used named storms as your benchmark. Thankfully, we are setup right now for a bit of a quiet period, possibly through the end of July.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We do not expect any tropical activity of note for the 7 days and probably longer.

Fast start should slow again

Two weeks ago, we had Edouard to discuss. Last week, we hinted at the risk that Fay could form. That happened, and now things are once again quiet in the tropics. We don’t see any sneaky system risk for the next 5 to 7 days, and nothing of note seems to be showing up beyond that. So we can exhale for the time being, and let us revisit 2020’s frenetic pace.

Fay was the fastest we’ve gotten to the “F” storm, or 6th named storm on record in the tropics, with the usual caveat that we easily could have missed a storm or two in previous years before weather satellites. Still, that is what the record books will say. Typically, we don’t get to the letter F until about September 8th. Of course, as we know, all of this year’s tropical storms have been fairly pedestrian in nature. The accumulated cyclone energy (or the sum of wind speed every 6 hours for every storm) is a mere 7.8, or what is typical for August 2nd.

The accumulated cyclone energy of this year’s hurricane season is running about 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal. (Colorado State)

The earliest “G” storm is 2005’s Gert on July 24th. It seems unlikely that this domino will fall right now. So far at least, this year is about quantity, not quality. That isn’t a bad thing.

What is next?

The obvious question everyone will have is: If things are going to quiet down, when will we see the next wave of activity? The answer is that we don’t know. Now, I will say that the risk of activity over the next 5 to 7 days seems close to zero. However, once we go beyond that period, there is always a chance something rogue could develop local to the Gulf that is absent from all models at present. We don’t see any evidence of that being a risk right now, but folks should understand the time horizon we can reasonably forecast for is limited when it comes to these things. But at a large scale, things look to remain quiet for probably the next two weeks.

While there are some more robust tropical waves beginning to emerge off Africa, none right now looks to be a serious candidate for development. (Weathernerds.org)

Dust is still pretty widespread, and even though we should begin to see beefier waves emerge off Africa, the odds of any one developing is fairly low. Looking at some meteorological data, it would seem to me that early to mid-August may provide our next chance to begin to get some development going on any meaningful scale. By then, dust and dry air should begin to become a little less dense, and we may see some background level support for more activity. One issue plaguing the Atlantic right now, despite a lot of other background signals being supportive of a very busy season is that vertical instability is rather low.

Vertical instability is lacking in the Atlantic basin right now, which may help hurricane season stay relatively lackluster for a bit longer. (NOAA)

We can use this as sort of a rough gauge as to what kind of state the Atlantic is in, and right now it happens to be in a pretty suppressed one, which does not support storm formation. Instability breeds thunderstorms, which can breed tropical storms. This doesn’t need to be rocking for the season to be active, but if you were seeking development of a meaningful nature, you would want to see this change. That being said, we’ve had six storms with really depressed basin-wide instability. If this does turn a corner, it’s likely that we’re going to be off to the races.

Hurricane season is a marathon, and there are numerous signals and hints you can focus in on or get distracted by. While this is a rather significant signal right now, and it’s likely helping us to keep quiet for the time being, it does not mean it will last forever. We will maintain vigilance. More for you next week!

Summer’s sizzle slogs along for Houston

Thursday was officially the hottest day of 2020 so far. We topped off at 98º yesterday at Bush Intercontinental Airport and 96º (good for second hottest) at Hobby. The forecast for the next week is what we in meteorology call a “persistence” forecast. It is what it sounds like. Today will be a similar version of yesterday. Tomorrow will be similar to today. And so on. While it makes for easy forecasting, it can get old fast, especially when it’s this hot. Alas, let’s focus on those temperatures.

Today through Monday

We will call it partly to mostly sunny through Monday. Upper air temperatures slowly escalate today and tomorrow. They should peak on Sunday and Monday, supportive of high temperatures in the low-100s for Houston. Inland areas will be slightly hotter, while coastal areas should do the mid-90s. Overnight lows struggling to get much below 80º will compound the intensity of the heat. Coastal areas likely will not drop below the low-80s.

Heat index, or what it feels like when you combine the heat and humidity will top off in the upper 100s to mid-110s this weekend. Heat Advisories are likely all weekend. (Weather Bell)

In terms of heat index values, it will be all the worse. Look for our heat indices (or “feels like” temperature if you prefer) to top off around 105º to 110º today and tomorrow afternoons, if not a little hotter. It is possible that we will see heat indices peak in the 110º to 115º range on Sunday and Monday. It’s going to feel miserably hot. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at Noon today, and we will likely see it reissued for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons. We don’t often talk about heat safety here because, let’s face it, it’s always hot here in summer. This will be next-level sort of heat, even for us, so please remember to drink plenty of water, check the backseat before locking, limit outdoor time in the afternoons, and check in on your neighbors that are elderly or vulnerable.

Tuesday through Thursday

The thermometer is going to take its foot off the gas after Monday. While Tuesday through Thursday should still be plenty hot, look for high temperatures to de-escalate from the low-100s back into the upper-90s. Rain chances appear to remain close to zero through Thursday. Our next real chance of some kind of rain is likely not until next Saturday or so.

Another one bites the dust

Tropical Storm Fay formed yesterday afternoon, becoming the earliest “F” storm (or 6th named storm) on record in the Atlantic Basin. It broke the record previously held by Franklin on July 21, 2005. It also would have broken the old record for earlier “E” storm too had Edouard not beat it to the punch this past weekend. As we’ve noted, in terms of intensities of these storms, 2005 blows this year away, as all of this year’s storms have basically been middling tropical storms thus far. We will discuss this some more in Tuesday’s tropical update.

Tropical Storm Fay has some gusty winds but should not cause any serious widespread problems in the Northeast. (NOAA)

Fay will deliver a dose of gusty winds and heavy rain to the Northeast Corridor, with flood watches hoisted from Delmarva through southern New England. Up to 4 to 6 inches of rain is possible in some locations. Overall, Fay should be equivalent to a moderate nor’easter with a bit more rain, so no significant problems are expected up that way.

For those curious, the earliest “G” storm (7th named storm) also occurred in 2005 and was Gert on July 25th. As of now, we don’t see any legitimate candidates for tropical development over the next 7 to 10 days or so.

Tropical Update: 2020 continues to pile up storms and set new records

Last week, we discussed how 2020 had started off tremendously fast but slowed a bit. We’re coming out of that lull now, but thankfully what we are amassing is mostly curiosity rather than any serious impacts.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While another system is possible off the East Coast, the Gulf is not expected to deliver any action over the next 1 to 2 weeks, as summer roasts much of Texas.

Edouard sets another 2020 superlative

With Tropical Storm Edouard being named on Sunday night, the Atlantic has now set a new record for the earliest 5th storm on record. The previous record holder was Emily back in 2005, which formed on the 11th of July. We typically do not see our 5th storm until the end of August, so we are off to the races right now. We’ll discuss 6th storm records in just a moment.

Again, there’s a huge difference between utilizing number of named storms and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to characterize the start to a season. Please see last week’s post for an explanation of the value and shortcomings of ACE. From the named storm standpoint, we’re at late August levels already. From an ACE standpoint, we’re at July 20th levels, not super abnormal.

While named storms are up to typical late August levels already, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is only running about two weeks ahead of schedule right now, which is probably a more reasonable way to characterize the 2020 season thus far. (Colorado State)

Just to put this into a little perspective: In 2005, the year we keep beating for earliest storm, by the time the 5th storm dissipated on July 21st, we had amassed an ACE of 56, or what is normal for September 14th. As I’ve told some people, 2020 thus far is about quantity, not quality.

East Coast bias

Of this year’s five storms so far, four of them have formed near or off of the East Coast. Could our next system come from that area? It very well could. A disturbance dubbed “Invest 98L” moved ashore on the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night. It is currently over northern Georgia and projected to lift to the north and east over the next few days.

Invest 98L is disorganized over Georgia today, but it does have about a 40% chance of developing as it pushes off the coast later this week. (Tropical Tidbits)

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is giving this about a 40 percent chance at becoming a tropical system over the next few days as it lifts north and east off the East Coast. If it does become a tropical storm, it would be named Fay, and it would break the record for earliest 6th storm (Franklin on July 21, 2005). This disturbance should produce heavy rain on the coast of the Carolinas, but at this point, it is not expected to cause much serious trouble before rolling out to sea.

Saharan dust

We continue to see the bulk of the Atlantic basin littered with dust today.

Widespread dust continues to hold over most of the Atlantic Basin, but it has eased up in density and coverage a bit. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

Dust, while widespread, is beginning to ease up a little relative to late June. The good news for us in Texas is that the quantities of dust reaching the Gulf are slowly diminishing, so we’re not expecting quite as ugly of an impact from dust over the next 10 days as we saw in late June up through this past weekend. Still, as dust rolls west across the basin, it’s always possible we see some in our area. But we do have something extra working in our favor by this weekend.

Heat in Texas keeps the Gulf closed

Look, some of us like the heat this time of year. Many of us deride as just something we have to accept about living here. Sometimes the heat can be good for something, and in our case, it would seem that it will help shield us from any Gulf happenings, including Saharan dust over the next week or two. To be clear, we don’t really expect any Gulf happenings, but in the off-chance something could form, strong high pressure over Texas would most likely deflect anything back to the east or well south into Mexico. Below, you will see the GFS ensemble mean forecast for days 6 through 10 (Sunday to Thursday next week), which shows high pressure in the upper atmosphere oriented just right to keep Texas protected.

The upper air forecast for days 6 through 10 shows a rock solid, strong high pressure system over Texas, which should be enough to keep the region “shielded” from any Gulf impacts. (Tropical Tidbits)

Of course, that will come with a cost, assessed in triple digit temperature risk and heat index values. But as long as high pressure can hold over Texas, we’ll be pretty safe from the Gulf. We don’t expect that to last forever, but for the next week or two, it is expected to be quiet, albeit dry.

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2020 bringing its strongest heat so far for Houston

We topped off (officially) at 97° on Thursday, tying yesterday with June 9th for the hottest day of 2020 so far. Perhaps we could make a run today for….

No matter your age or favorite music, it’s almost always the 90s in Houston.

Maybe. If not, there is a valid chance we could do it Saturday or Sunday as well. Either way, expect a hot holiday weekend, and be sure to take it easy if you’re outdoors.

Today

Look for partly to mostly sunny conditions today. Saharan dust will again provide some haze. Air quality on Thursday did get to the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” level, and it may do so again today, so if you’ve been irritated by the recent dust events or have any respiratory ailments, today may bother you once again. High temperatures should aim for the mid- to upper-90s once more with plenty of humidity. Heat index values topped off around 105° yesterday. We should see similar to perhaps slightly lower peak heat index values today.

Heat index values should top off around 101° to 104° later this afternoon. (Weather Bell)

Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re low for most of the area most of the day. We will watch some storms in Louisiana later this afternoon that will ride west into Texas this evening. If they can survive the trip, you may see a downpour or have a brief gusty thunderstorm east of I-45 after about 4 or 5 P.M. or so before the storms dissipate. This is a fairly low possibility.

Weekend

For the holiday weekend it will be hot. Both Saturday and Sunday should again see highs in the mid- to upper-90s and lows in the 70s. Humidity is going to creep upward this weekend, so look for peak heat index values around 105°, give or take a couple degrees on both days. Saharan dust may linger a bit, but it will slowly dissipate this weekend.

How about rain? Well, a trough and upper low look to setup shop over Mississippi and Alabama this weekend. Storms on the western periphery of that setup could graze eastern areas. This would be primarily a story for Liberty & Chambers Counties, if not mainly toward Beaumont. So a few heavy downpours are possible east of Houston. Areas to the north (Walker, Montgomery, and San Jacinto Counties) may also get grazed by some storms at times as well this weekend, particularly Sunday morning. For Houston and points south and west, your best shot at storms may be Sunday, and as it stands this morning, that’s a low probability. Either way, no significant issues are expected this weekend.

Next week

Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and especially Tuesday. Not everyone will see rain, but it will be our area’s best shot at storms since last week, so hopefully we can participate. By Wednesday, high pressure begins to reload over Texas, building toward the weekend. We will likely be back to hot and mostly dry by the end of next week, with daytime highs back in the 95 to 97 degree range, if not hotter.

Enjoy the holiday weekend, and please stay safe.