Good morning. And it’s a chilly one, with temperatures in the 30s across the entire metro area away from the immediate coast. Some locations, such as Conroe and Cleveland, are even experiencing a light freeze. Our weather will now turn warmer, with daily high temperatures that should more or less remain in the 60s for the foreseeable future. Other things covered in today’s post: the potential for rainfall on Friday and Saturday of this week, and our first Christmas Day forecast below.

Monday

For anyone getting going this morning, it’s a cold start. However, at least those winds are light, as as they’re coming from the east we’re going to see a warmer flow today. With sunny skies we can expect high temperatures to climb into the low 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be more moderate, generally dropping into the 40s for Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

With high pressure off to our east, we can expect a generally easterly flow for the middle of this week. What does that mean? Tuesday will start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see increasing cloud cover through Wednesday and Thursday. Highs each day will be in the 60s, although there will be some variation depending on cloud cover during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will generally drop into the low 50s. So all in all, pretty moderate weather for December. One thing to note: If you live on the coast, tides will be higher than normal due to the persistent easterly winds.

Friday and Saturday

We’re going to see a favorable setup for rainfall this weekend as an approaching front combines with a reasonably moist atmosphere. The details are still a bit hazy, but Friday will be mostly cloudy, with a modest chance of showers in the morning, and higher odds during the afternoon and overnight hours. The front itself should move through Friday night, at some point. But it won’t immediately scour all of the moisture out of the atmosphere, so some light, lingering showers will be possible during the day on Saturday. All told I expect the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and on Saturday likely in the 50s.

Next week

Sunday, at this point, looks to be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. So that’s probably the best day for outdoor activities this weekend, if you can swing it. I’d expect to see partly sunny skies and highs in the 60s through at least the middle of next week, with low to non-existent rain chances. Nights will be chilly, mostly in the 40s.

Christmas Day forecast

We’re still 14 days out from the Christmas holiday, so a specific weather forecast is necessarily going to be stuffed with caveats like a stocking. It looks like we’ll continue to see fairly chilly nights through the middle of next week. By around Dec. 21, however, we should start to warm up. So what happens after that? Understandably, there is not a strong signal in the models right now, but if anything they’re leaning toward slightly warmer weather through Christmas Day, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. At this point we absolutely cannot rule out significant rainfall, but there’s no real signal for strong showers.

Good morning. Houston faces a couple of warmer days before a strong cold front comes barreling through on Saturday afternoon and evening. This front, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms, will quickly drop temperatures and humidity. This will set the stage for winter-like conditions for much of next week. Monday morning looks especially cold, with a light freeze possible for some inland areas outside of Houston’s urban core.

Friday

Today will be warm for December, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and mostly cloudy skies. We’ll see a consistent southerly flow all day, with winds at the surface of about 10 mph. Rain chances also return, with perhaps a 30 or 40 percent chance of showers this morning into the early afternoon hours. While these will mostly be light showers, it’s possible that one or two thunderstorms might pop up. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday

Another warm day, with highs in the upper 70s. A few locations may hit 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will be pretty thick. The front should reach areas north and west of Houston, such as Katy and The Woodlands, between 4 and 6 pm, and push off the coast between 7 and 10 pm. The odds of severe weather now look quite low, but it’s still possible that a few storms will accompany the front as it pushes through. Most areas will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but a few isolated locations could pick up one-half inch, or more. Much drier air moves in after the front’s passage, with brisk northerly winds gusting to 35 mph or higher Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be especially blustery along the coast. Lows will drop into the 40s.

Sunday

This will be a cold, sunny, and breezy day with highs in the upper 50s. Winds will gradually back off during the day, becoming fairly calm by the evening hours. These clear skies and light winds will set the stage for ideal cooling overnight, with lows dropping into the 30s in Houston. For locations in Montgomery and Waller counties, a light freeze is possible—the first of the season.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly typical for December. We’ll see highs generally in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s as well as partly sunny skies. Some rain chances return by the end of the work week. After this Saturday, I’m not sure when we’ll see highs in the 70s again.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and stay warm on Sunday night!

First off, shout to all of you who posted your amazing sunrise and sunset pictures in the comments yesterday on Facebook. Seriously, this is one time where reading the comments section is encouraged. Some great stuff from y’all there, so thank you. We will work to integrate more of your photos more often, so please share with us as you see fit…sunrises, sunsets, storm damage, gratuitous and absolutely necessary dog photos! We don’t want to overpromise, of course, but we will do our best.

Facebook is an option for sharing with us. Twitter/X is an option as well. Instagram is an option (just message us). Good old fashioned email works too. ([email protected] and [email protected]).

Alright, let’s get into the forecast, which will feature a brief roller coaster ride with a little spring and a little autumn and winter.

Today

Much like yesterday, today should feature sun and passing high clouds. There may be a bit more cloud cover at times today, especially later. Maybe we can still eke out another good sunset. Either way, it will be a cordial golf clap sort of day. Highs will be well into the 60s and a few spots may even crack 70 this afternoon.

Friday

As a more assertive push of humid air lifts north into our area tomorrow, we should see clouds and a few passing showers. I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of sun tomorrow, but especially in the afternoon hours it’s possible. Any rainfall should be fairly brief and mostly just conversational in nature. Morning lows will be in the 60s (about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today), and we will warm well into the 70s tomorrow.

Saturday

The morning should start off fine on Saturday with low clouds and muggy conditions. Morning lows will likely be in the mid-60s in most spots. I can’t rule out some areas of fog Saturday morning either. We could even see a little coastal fog in the afternoon down near Galveston.

The afternoon should start fine enough, but then a line of showers and thunderstorms with our much discussed cold front will push through the area. I expect this to occur in the latter half of the afternoon, probably after 2-3 PM. The line of showers and storms will start as just some scattered activity northwest of Houston, so places in the Brazos Valley and north of Conroe may see just some brief downpours or even nothing at all during the early afternoon. As the front passes through the Houston metro area, the line will be gradually congealing but even here it may still struggle a bit. The good news for anyone with plans on Saturday is that the precipitation should be moving fairly quickly. I can’t see more than an hour or so of rainfall at any one spot as this thing pushes through. Showers should reach the coast by 7 to 9 PM.

The best chance of any severe weather is likely to stay northeast of most of our area. But with these kind of fronts, there’s always a chance something pops before it exits the area. With a pretty strong “cap” in place on Saturday, however, it seems like strong storms from the Houston metro to the coast seems like a very low risk.

The main story with this front will be temperatures.

We will see high temperatures rise into the low to mid 70s in north and northwestern reaches of the area on Saturday. From Houston south, because the front is later in the day, highs well into the 70s with a few spots near 80 degrees will be likely. Behind the front, we’ll drop through the 60s and into the 50s relatively quickly, settling into the 40s on Sunday morning. In addition, winds will be quite blustery Saturday night into Sunday morning with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely.

Sunday and Monday

Unlike our last few fronts it seems, this one will break through and clear us out. Expect plentiful sunshine on Sunday and Monday. After our chilly and windy start, Sunday will only warm into the mid to upper-50s.

The coldest morning will be Monday with upper-30s likely, and even some mid-30s in the outlying, more rural areas. We should poke back up above 60 on Monday afternoon.

Rest of next week

We should warm up through midweek, along with a return to some clouds. Another cold front may time toward late week or the weekend with showers and storms and colder temperatures. These types of El Niño-ish patterns usually feature cooler days and cool to cold night — but not intense cold. No sign of freezing temperatures for Houston on the horizon for now.

Before getting into the forecast this morning, I wanted to share a couple of observations about Houston’s weather of late. Let’s start with the acorns. Oh, the acorns. They’re still falling. I went back and checked this morning, and I first wrote about the mast year for acorns we’re experiencing back on November 2. That’s five weeks ago, and they were already thick as thieves by that point. If there’s a naturalist, arborist, or other expert out there who can quantify this year’s acorn crop I’d love to hear about it. I just can’t believe they’re still falling. Will they ever stop?

The other thing one cannot really miss, if you’re outdoors during the early evening hours, is the grand sunsets we’ve been experiencing. Matt has been noticing them too, and says that they’re due to a thin layer of cirrus clouds. These are the wispy clouds high in the atmosphere, which are formed entirely of ice crystals, and often indicate the presence of the jet stream. You can see these clouds in the lovely photos below, sent in by readers. In the case of our recent sunsets, there are enough of these clouds to produce vivid colors by scattering some light, but not so many that they block out too much of the Sun’s last, dying rays. We’re likely to see more such sunsets this winter with an active jet streak.

Alright, on to the forecast, which is somewhat of a mixed bag with a lot of people undoubtedly having pre-holiday plans this weekend.

Wednesday

Today should be a pleasant and mostly sunny winter day. Look for highs in the mid-60s, with light easterly winds. Those winds will begin to turn southeasterly tonight as high pressure near Texas shifts further to the east. We should still see one more cool night, however, as lows drop into the upper 40s for most of the Houston metro area, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Thursday

Southerly winds should become more pronounced on Thursday, and we’ll start to see some moisture return to the atmosphere. This may result in a few clouds as highs nudge up to around 70 degrees. With a warmer, southerly flow in place lows on Thursday night will probably only drop to around 60 degrees. A few very light, scattered showers may be possible overnight.

Friday

This will be a warmer and more humid day, with highs in the mid-70s and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some very light showers will again be possible due to the atmospheric moisture, but I expect them to be rather scattered. Temperatures on Friday night will be downright warm, only falling into the upper 60s for most of the region.

Saturday

Like many of you, probably, my family has some outdoor plans during the daytime on Saturday and the timing of a front is not making for easy planning. While there’s still not great consistency, the forecast models are trending slightly later with the frontal passage, probably putting it some time during the afternoon hours. So here’s what I think I know. Saturday morning will start out warm and muggy, and much of Houston may get into the mid- or upper-70s. At some point we’re going to see a storm system, perhaps an intact line of storms, perhaps a broken line. I don’t feel confident yet in saying whether this will occur during the late-morning or afternoon hours yet. But by or before sunset these storms should clear the area, with much drier and colder air moving in. I’m not concerned about rainfall accumulations, as I expect most areas to receive perhaps 0.5 inch or less, but we can’t dismiss the possibility of some of these daytime thunderstorms becoming severe due to the somewhat unstable air mass. Our confidence in the forecast will increase during the next day or two as we get within the realm of higher-resolution modeling.

Sunday

Overnight lows will drop into the 40s heading into Sunday morning, with gusty conditions. Wake-up temperatures on Sunday morning will “feel” like they’re in the 30s due to these winds. So bundle up if you’re going to be out and about. Sunday’s high temperatures will likely only reach the upper 50s even with lots of sunshine. Absolute temperatures on Monday morning will be even colder, probably down to around 40 degrees in Houston. But with less wind they’ll be more tolerable.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week should remain on the chilly side, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. There’s no sign of a warm-up in the near term, friends. Maybe don an ugly Christmas sweater early?