Well, I sure hope you were able to get outside this weekend. For some people it was perfect weather, while others may have found it a little cool. Whatever the case, it was nice to step outside and not feel like my face was about to melt off. Surely, the next question some people have is whether or not this was just “faux fall,” and we see a return to a lengthy stretch of warm and humid weather again. The answer is not quite! More autumnal weather is on the way, and for some folks, more rain is on the way too.

Today

One thing that did surprise me a little this weekend was the resiliency of the high cirrus cloud deck. It certainly made for some nice skies, but it also diminished the sun a bit. We’ll likely see more of that today, especially south of I-10. North of I-10 should be basically fully sunny. It should be at least a little warmer overall, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Tuesday

We’ll see a notable uptick in humidity here as onshore winds kick in, bringing in a relatively moist air mass. In addition, clouds will likely increase, and there should be at least some chance for a few mostly light showers, especially near the coast. Morning lows will generally be in the 60s, with highs in the low-80s.

Wednesday into Thursday

The forecast gets interesting here. Pacific-driven moisture courtesy of Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max will surge across Mexico and toward South Texas on Wednesday. This will all combine with a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that will lift north and then quickly east across the Gulf. This should mean periods of rain or showers and a chance of thunderstorms. However, whether that’s in the Houston area or along the coast and offshore is still a bit fluid. North of I-10 should expect minimal rainfall. South of I-10 will see upward of a quarter-inch to perhaps as much as an inch near the coast. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur from Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi and the Valley.

Personally, I think the rainfall forecast above is a bit generous. I might shift the gradient 25 to 50 miles south based on the overnight model data. We’ll fine tune this tomorrow when we get a better idea of exactly how far north rain should get. Look for variable highs on Wednesday, with perhaps 80 or so north and 70s south depending on how much rain occurs. Wednesday may also have a bit of a breeze as well out of the east-southeast.

We’ll see gradual clearing Thursday, though there may be another chance of showers late in the day. High temps should be back in the mid-80s most places.

Friday

We’ll peak temperatures on Friday with a bit of drier air. It will be start very warm and humid with mid to morning lows in the 70s. The humidity may drop some during the day with offshore winds, but that will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s.

Cooler air arrives Friday night into Saturday, ushering in another delightful fall air mass for the weekend. This front won’t have much moisture with it, so while a shower or two will be possible, most places will likely remain dry.

Weekend & annular solar eclipse

This weekend looks like a repeat with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity. Just super nice autumn weather. For now, the cloud cover situation for Saturday’s annular solar eclipse looks great with most of Texas in the clear (the exception may be the Rio Grande Valley and Panhandle).

I will say that I want to be a little cautious after this weekend’s more abundant high clouds, but at this point things look great. Fingers crossed. We’ll watch this closely through the week.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally fallen into the upper 60s across most of the metro area this morning, and we are experiencing but a small taste of the glorious fall weather ahead this weekend. The coolest weather will arrive on Saturday and Sunday, when overnight lows dip into the 50s for pretty much the entire area, with plenty of dry air to boot. In this post I’m also going to take an early look at weather conditions for an annular eclipse that will take place across Texas on October 14, during the late morning hours.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s today. Winds will come from the northeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will feel moderately drier, but not exactly fall-like. But don’t worry, that’s coming later with a reinforcing front on Friday night into Saturday. Rain chances are effectively zero, and will be that way at least through next Tuesday. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 60s for most.

Saturday

Saturday will be partly sunny and cooler, with highs generally in the mid-70s. Winds will be a bit gusty, perhaps reaching 20 mph at times from the north. Some clouds will remain overnight as low temperatures drop into the mid- to upper-50s for most of the region, with plenty of dry air.

Sunday

For those of us who can’t quite cotton summer weather in Houston, this will be the nicest day in at least five months. Look for sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s, dry air, and light winds. I mean, you can’t beat it. Lows on Sunday night should again drop into the upper 50s for most.

Next week

As the onshore flow resumes sometime on Sunday evening, or so, we’ll begin a gradual warming trend. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s for the most part next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances return by Wednesday, or so, likely influenced by tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This part of the forecast, and associated rain chances, are fairly vague. However I am fairly confident that another cold front will arrive later in the week, by Friday or so, to end the rain and bring cooler and drier air. Probably not quite as cool as this weekend, but still nice.

Annular eclipse

On Saturday October 14 an annular eclipse will appear over select regions of Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. (A handy map can be found here). Houston lies just north of the area that will see the full annular eclipse, but still nearly 90 percent of the Sun will be covered just before noon. It will, briefly at least, feel notably cooler. An annular eclipse occurs when the Moon passes in front of the Sun, but does not block its entirety, leaving a ‘ring of fire’ in the sky. It is crucial to use solar eclipse glasses when viewing the Sun during the eclipse.

As I mentioned above, we should see a frontal passage on Friday-ish. If this does indeed occur, there is a high likelihood of clear skies for the annular eclipse in the Houston region. I would peg the likelihood at about 80 percent or greater, but we are far enough away that some uncertainty remains.

Fall is on the way as a line of showers and thunderstorms advances southward through the Houston area from north to south this morning. These storms are already moving through The Woodlands, and will affect the central part of Houston during rush hour this morning. They should largely be offshore by or before noon. I’m expecting overall accumulations of 1-2 inches, but the concern is high rainfall rates.

Because of this, there is the potential for street flooding along with these storms, and we are therefore keeping a Stage 1 flood alert in effect for the entire metro area through noon this morning. Please take extra care when driving around the city this morning with the potential for water on low-lying roadways and traffic delays. There may also be frequent lightning and gusty winds before the storms pass.

Thursday

After the main line of storms passes this morning, this afternoon should bring high temperatures of around 80 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies, and winds shifting to come from the north. Additional scattered showers will be possible this afternoon before coming to an end this evening. Low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees on Thursday night, with the air feeling slightly cooler.

Friday

Friday will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, and high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints will drop a bit as drier air filters into the area, but we’re going to need to wait until a reinforcing front arrives on Friday night to really bring low humidity and cooler weather. Rain chances, overall, are low to non-existent. Lows should drop into the mid-60s for most areas on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be our first fall-like weather of the season and it’s going to be pretty glorious. Saturday will bring partly cloudy skies, with highs likely in the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the north at about 15 mph, with higher gusts. Clearing skies by Saturday night should allow lows to drop into the upper 50s on Sunday night. Sunday looks amazing, with lesser winds and sunny skies to go along with highs in the upper 70s. Sunday night should be cool again, with lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Next week

Highs will start to recover into the 80s by Monday or Tuesday of next week, but at this point it does not appear as though temperatures are going back into the 90s. I’m still watching for the potential for showers in association with tropical moisture by mid- to late next week, but as of now it looks like the focus of that activity will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. At this point it’s likely that another front will arrive to bring some cooler and drier weather into the region next weekend. That’s not certain at this point, but I am hopeful.

Good morning. Much of the region saw beneficial rains on Tuesday, with widespread accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inch. However some areas, particularly in Brazoria County, saw in excess of 6 inches of rainfall. Conditions today will continue to favor the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly to the west of Interstate 45, including the Brazoria, Fort Bend, Wharton, and Matagorda County areas.

With this in mind, we’re extending our Stage 1 flood alert to the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday evening. In addition we’re raising the flood alert to Stage 2 for Brazoria and Wharton Counties, which lie to the southwest of Houston, and includes the cities of Sugar Land and Angleton. There is the potential for another 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in these areas for the period from now until Thursday night, and this could cause flash flooding. Please continue to be aware of weather and road conditions for the next couple of days.

Wednesday

As noted above, the overall pattern favors the majority of storms forming over the western half of the Houston metro area today, as this will be where a majority of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing inland. Look for on and off showers and thunderstorms today, with the potential for some street flooding. High temperatures today will reach the low 80s for most of the area, with mostly cloudy skies, and occasionally gusty winds from the southeast. Rain chances will slacken somewhat overnight, but not go away.

Thursday

A day that looks similar, in terms of overall weather to Wednesday. The difference that instead of the storms moving inland from the Gulf, there will be a more north-to-south movement in association with an advancing front. In any case, we’ll continue the flood alerts through Thursday evening as the potential for heavy rainfall will remain in place. High temperatures will again reach the low- to mid-80s, but with the front’s influence low temperatures will probably drop into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will linger into Friday morning, but after that we should start to see some partially clearing skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s. Around this time you may be thinking well, that wasn’t much of a front. Fortunately, a reinforcing front is on the way Friday night and Saturday morning that will truly usher in fall-like conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Northerly winds should turn fairly gusty by Saturday morning, bringing much drier air into the region. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will drop noticeably during the day. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s for inland areas, and Sunday looks to be just about perfect. Expect sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs in the mid-70s. We’re officially declaring Sunday to be Fall Day in Houston. (If you’re wondering, yes, we’re trying to organize a Fall Day gathering again this year, but it won’t be this weekend.) Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 50s for most of the area.

Next week

We’ll see the onshore flow resume by Monday or so, and that should set the stage for warmer days in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the week. There are two things I’m watching for, one of which is a potential surge in tropical moisture during the second half of next week. This would be in association with a tropical system that crosses Mexico from the Pacific Ocean and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. For now the details are fairly vague, and it’s possible that this entire mess remains mostly offshore. Additionally, it looks like another front of some sort should arrive some time next weekend to cool us down and dry out the atmosphere. We’ll see.