Good morning. Since the forecast is pretty much unchanged—expect very hot and sunny weather for the foreseeable future—I want to briefly address a question I’ve received several times. And that is, why does Apple’s weather app consistently show a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain for the next several days?

Now if we’re to believe this forecast, there is a 30 percent chance of rain today, and a healthy 50 percent chance on Friday. And since Apple makes some pretty amazing hardware and software, it’s difficult to doubt Apple. But in this case, the Apple weather app is just massively wrong. The rain chances today are not 30 percent, but rather about 3 percent (as the Space City Weather app, which is not flawless I will say, suggests). And while I would dearly love to be wrong, a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday is preposterous.

This has been a persistent forecast within Apple’s weather app for awhile now. I honestly don’t know why this is occurring because there is no credible modeling suggesting this will happen, and it entirely defies everything I know about meteorology given the current pattern. My only thought is that while AI and automated forecasts are promising, they still require some human curation. Which we endeavor to provide.

Thursday

Meanwhile, back in the real world, we’ve got another excessive heat warning today, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees and a heat index pushing past 110 degrees. The only notable change is that winds out of the south will be a little bit more pronounced, up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Friday

Slightly drier air could push us out of “excessive” heat territory into a simpler heat advisory, but it’s still going to be dang hot. Rain chances are in the sub-5 percent category.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with rain chances near zero percent.

Next week

Honestly, there’s not a whole lot of change in sight for next week as a ridge of high pressure remains dominant over our weather. Maybe, if I squint, there’s a bit of optimism for returning rain chances by the end of next week. But it’s not a bet I’m placing with confidence.

Good morning. Our overall pattern remains more or less the same, with high pressure leading to very hot weather for the next week, and quite possibly beyond. Today and Thursday could bring the worst of the weather, with very high dewpoints contributing to the heat.

We see this in the forecast for “wet bulb globe temperatures,” which factor in several variables to provide an overall guidance for how uncomfortable conditions will be. (I discussed these a bit more in depth on Monday) Temperatures for today and Thursday are forecast to be above 90 degrees, which means our weather will be extremely uncomfortable.

Wednesday

There is not much to say beyond the fact that temperatures will reach about 100 degrees, with sunny skies and stifling humidity, and modest southwest winds at about 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

Conditions will be much the same, although southerly winds may be a little higher, at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

With the influx of slightly drier air and winds gusting up to 20 mph, conditions might be slightly more tolerable outside. But temperatures will still be really hot, about 100 degrees for much of the region away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Yes, the weekend looks sunny and hot.

Next week

A series of atmospheric disturbances will push through the area later on Sunday and on Monday; and were we not under the influence of high pressure, these are the kinds of systems that would bring us a healthy chance of rain. However, due to generally sinking air over the region, I’d rate the chance of these disturbances at producing rain at about 10 percent. Still, it’s something to watch, as most of the rest of the forecast just looks to be unendingly hot, humid, and rain free.

This is bad for business, but as usual we’re going to be honest with you here. For the next few days, at least, you really do not need to check the daily forecast here at Space City Weather. We are in a persistent pattern of high-pressure dominated weather that will last for at least the next week, and quite possibly longer. This high anchored over the southwestern United States, is not going anywhere, any time soon.

The conditions that we’re going to experience through the middle of July are not atypical, per se, for this month. It is summer in Houston. It is hot. But the heat is going to be tenacious, with daily temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, and without any let up. Every day is going to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will barely fall to 80 degrees. And while there is a very slight rain chance this afternoon, overall chances will be 10 percent or less on most days. The entire metro area is under a heat advisory and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near or reaching 100 degrees for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but most areas will not see anything resembling rainfall. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

A similar day, albeit with even lower rain chances. Look for highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday until ???

From Thursday, through the weekend, and at least into the middle of next week we are looking at hot and sunny weather, driven persistent high pressure. This means mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and warm, humid nights. It is possible this pattern breaks somewhat by the middle or end of next week, but I would not hold my breath.

We talk about the heat index from time to time, and this characterizes the heat outside by factoring in both the temperature and relative humidity. This is also the basis for “feels like” temperatures on television broadcasts. But there is another, still more accurate measurement of heat stress if one must be out in the direct sunlight, and this is called the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.” It’s a bit of an odd name, but it takes a lot of factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, Sun angle and cloud cover. Chances are, if you’ve been in the military, you heard of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.

The important thing to remember about these temperatures is that anything above 80 degrees requires precautions, and anything above 90 degrees is dangerous if you’re outside for a prolonged period of time. I say all of this because the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is a good measurement to characterize the extremeness of the heat we’re going to see this week, and the bottom line is that it should not be quite as bad as what we experienced in June. Back then, daily Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures were consistently in the low 90s. This week we will be a few degrees below that. It will still be very warm, with a heat advisory in place for much of the region. But it won’t be quite as extreme.

Monday

That was a rather long introduction for what will be a short forecast as high pressure over West Texas influences our weather for this week and beyond. Expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. There is perhaps a 10 to 15 percent chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will provide little relief. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A similar day, with slight rain chances and highs in the upper 90s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, sunny skies, and warm nights. Each day will be more or less the same as we bake.

Saturday and Sunday

The temperature may increase slightly this weekend, as sunny skies prevail. Hot, hot, hot.

Next week

At this time I don’t foresee too much of a change heading into next week. There are some scenarios in which we start to see a decent chance of rain by around Tuesday or so of next week, but at this point it’s difficult for me to bet against persistent heat as high pressure reigns supreme. Rest assured, we’re looking for any signs of change.