As Eric promised yesterday, winter is not yet over folks. Stepping outside today, you’ll notice it feels a bit more like January perhaps. And while we do have warmer weather on the horizon, it’s pretty evident that winter is not quite ready to pack its bags just yet. At the bottom of today’s post, I’ve got a quick update on a some “polar vortexy” things that may be on your mind.

Today

“Blustery” is the word of the day. Winds are going to pick up this morning, and as temperatures stall a bit later this afternoon in the 50s, you’ll notice a little chill to the air.

Northerly wind gusts may exceed 20 to 25 mph at times on land and over 30 mph along the coast (where a wind advisory is posted) and over the water.

Tonight

Winds will stay up some tonight, and temperatures behind today’s cold front will drop into the 40s and probably the 30s in many spots too. The wild card tonight will be how far west clouds are able to pivot. While they probably won’t have a gigantic impact on what you notice tonight, they will likely mean the difference between 40 to 45 degrees for a nighttime low or 35 to 40 degrees, where skies are clear.

Weekend

The weekend looks great for any plans you may have. Sunshine will dominate Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid-50s Saturday and low-60s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 30s once more tomorrow night with a light freeze possible in spots north and west of Houston especially.

Next week

The weather is going to be a bit chaotic next week from a pure day to day perspective. In terms of impacts, we don’t see anything too major right now. We have two fronts that look poised to push through the area. The first would come Tuesday after a warm and humid Monday. After a brief cooldown Wednesday, we’d warm up late and into Thursday in time for the next front. Much like today’s front, this one has been flagging a bit of wind with it in various model guidance, so that’s one thing we’ll watch for Thursday afternoon. Behind that front, we’d turn rather chilly Friday and Saturday again. We will sort the details out for you further on Monday.

Stratospheric situation

We are beginning to get some questions about the potential breakdown of the polar vortex over the next couple weeks, with the thesis generally being that as the polar vortex weakens from the top (stratosphere) down (surface), it unloads colder air from the polar regions into mid-latitudes, where most of us live. Or as some misleadingly qualify it: “The polar vortex is coming.”

The catalyst for this would be a sudden warming of temperatures in the stratosphere (or SSW as many of us refer to it). The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang had a good piece on this yesterday with quotes from some experts I follow on social media. It may or may not be paywalled, but the general gist of things is this: There is a sudden warming of the stratosphere over the polar regions, thousands of feet above the surface. It fractures the otherwise stable polar vortex in the stratosphere. A process begins that gradually works its way from the stratosphere into the troposphere (where we live) that could begin a domino effect of perhaps reshuffling the weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere in such a way that favors colder weather over warmer weather as we head into March.

“Could” does not mean “will.” Nothing is guaranteed, as not all SSWs are created equal, and not all of them lead to a configuration supportive of cold in the Central & Eastern U.S. Researchers are still working to fully understand the factors involved in these types of events that happen every few years, so we still have a lot to learn before we can start discussing anything with confidence. In other words, neither Eric or myself or anyone knows if we’ll see some significant colder weather next month. That being said, as we head into next week and the week of the 20th, it will be interesting to see what the models start showing for the pattern over America. We’ll have a decent idea if this SSW has a meaningful impact on cold risks for the country later next week or early the following week I think. So stay tuned, but if you love cold, keep your expectations somewhat in check.

Good morning. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s this morning for parts of the metro area, and still colder conditions are on the way for Friday and Saturday night, with a light freeze in the cards for inland parts of Houston. In addition, the global models are indicating that another blast of colder air will work its way into the region in a little more than a week. It is too early to say whether this will ultimately bring a freeze into the region during the February 18-20 period, but it’s enough for me to say that winter is not over yet for our corner of Texas.

Also, read to the end of today’s post for an opportunity to join me in watching one of my favorite films later this month. Now, on to the forecast.

Thursday

Today is going to be a great day for weather, one of the best of the year so far. We’ll have sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. To go along with this, we’ll see very light winds, turning southerly. In other words, conditions will be mild during the daytime. Temperatures will cool off tonight, with lows in the upper 40s.

Friday

Over night a reinforcing front is going to blow into the area, and I do mean blow. We’re not going to see any precipitation with this front, but some time before sunrise the winds are going start blowing pretty precipitously. By Friday morning we should see sustained winds of about 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph or higher. These winds will persist throughout much of the day, and with highs only in the 50s it’s going to be chilly outside. Although the winds will moderate slightly after sunset, it’s still going to be gusty outside. Paradoxically, while this mixing may keep air temperatures a bit warmer—I think most of Houston will remain a few degrees above freezing—it will make wind-chill temperatures feel much colder, in the 20s by Saturday morning. Plan accordingly if you’ll be outside.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be sunny and chilly, with highs in the 50s. As winds die down overnight, they’ll lead to ideal cooling conditions, such that it now looks like Saturday night be the coldest of the week, with a light freeze possible for inland areas of the region.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, lows on Sunday night should drop only into the upper 40s or so.

Next week

As high pressure exits, this more southerly flow will lead to the development of clouds and eventually some rain showers on Monday and Tuesday of next week. The better chances for rain, and possibly thunderstorms, should come on Tuesday. Most of next week looks reasonably warm, with highs in the 70s before a stronger front arrives by Thursday or so. This will drop lows into the 40s, at least, and possibly further depending on the extent of the cold air as outlined in this post’s introduction.

Movies Houstonians Love

A few months ago the Museum of Fine Arts asked me to name my favorite movies, as part of their Movies Houstonians Love series. As a result of this, I’ll be attending a special screening of Dazed and Confused on Saturday, February 25, at the museum’s Brown Auditorium. I can’t wait to hear the film’s fantastic 70s soundtrack blasting from the theater’s sound system. You’re invited to join me, and come say hello. Here is information on tickets, which are moderately priced.

Good morning. Houston will see scattered showers today, with a chance for thunderstorms, as a cold front slogs into the region. This will usher in a period of colder and clearer weather through about Sunday morning, after which time we’ll warm back up for a few days. So it goes in February, in Houston.

When cold fronts pass through the region during the daytime, we often say that highs will depend upon your location, and the timing of the front. Today offers a textbook example of this, with a midday frontal passage. If you slide the image below, you’ll see the temperature forecast for noon and 4 pm CT. Already, at noon, temperatures in areas such as Katy and parts of Montgomery County will be in the upper 50s. For central and eastern parts of the Houston region, however, temperatures will be 20 degrees warmer. By late afternoon some eastern parts of the region will still be in the lower 70s, while most of Houston has dropped into the 50s.

Wednesday

As noted above, temperatures today will depend on where you live and the timing of the front. In terms of rainfall today, most areas will see on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. However, high resolution models are hinting at the potential for some isolated thunderstorms through the early afternoon hours, so these may briefly produce heavier rain and lightning. Please take care in such storms. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-40s as colder and drier air moves in.

Thursday

This will be a sunny, splendid day with highs near 70 degrees and plenty of sunshine. Winds will be fairly light, shifting to come from the southwest. Lows again will drop into the mid-40s. On Thursday night a reinforcing cold front will arrive, setting the stage for even colder conditions to end the work week.

Friday

Behind this second front an even colder and drier air mass will move in, and as a result Friday is going to be a chilly and gusty day. Look for highs to only reach the mid-50s, with wind gusts as high as 25 or 30 mph, or even slightly higher along the coast. These winds will back off some on Friday night, setting the stage for a very cold night, with a light freeze possible for inland areas. Expect sub-freezing wind chills, so this will be a cold night to be out and about.

Saturday

Expect a sunny and cool day, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s. Lows on Saturday night probably will be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

As the overall flow turns more southerly, expect highs on Sunday to reach the low 60s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Next week

The forecast for next week remains far from certain, but a general pattern is emerging. Monday and Tuesday will warm into the 70s, and as moisture levels start to increase we’ll see an upper-level system move in that should generate fairly widespread showers. Very roughly I’d ballpark rain accumulations at 0.5 to 1 inch. This system may or may not drag a weak front into the region, but then we should warm up on Wednesday again before a somewhat stronger front pushes into Houston by Thursday-ish. Accordingly, lows likely will drop back into the 40s toward the end of next week.

Good morning. Houston faces a period of unsettled weather tonight and Wednesday before the first of two fronts clears out our skies through Saturday. A freeze is probably not in the cards for most of the metro area on Friday night, but some inland areas are at risk. Keep a jacket handy.

Tuesday

We’re seeing some patchy fog again this morning, so take care on roadways where there is limited visibility. Otherwise, skies today will be mostly cloudy across Houston, with a warm February day in the mid- to upper-70s. Winds will be out of the south and southeast, gusting to perhaps 20 mph. Some very light, and fairly scattered showers will be possible today and this evening, with most of this activity occurring on the west side of the metro area. Rain chances will increase tonight, especially after midnight, with the approach of a front.

Wednesday

The thing with this front is that it’s going to be moving pretty slowly, likely reaching areas such at Katy and The Woodlands by around sunrise on Wednesday, but not pushing off the coast until Wednesday afternoon or evening. Therefore, while the ingredients for heavy rainfall and severe storms are lacking overall, there probably will be a few areas where such storms develop and stall. Put another way, much of the metro area will likely receive about one-quarter of an inch of rainfall. However, some smaller areas may pick up 2 inches or so, with higher amounts possible, as storms stall. The most likely time and place for these heavier rains is between midnight and sunrise on Wednesday, to the west of Interstate 45.

Most of the central and eastern parts of the region will reach high temperatures in the 70s on Wednesday before the front slogs through, bringing cooler and drier weather. Cloudy skies should clear out overnight on Wednesday, with low temperatures dropping into the 40s.

Thursday

Look for sunny skies, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, and plenty of dry air. This will be a fine day, with light winds out of the west. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-40s. A second cold front will arrive on Thursday evening, which will be noticeable as winds pick up, gusting from the north at 25 to 30 mph later on Thursday night.

Friday

This will be a sunny, cold day in the wake of the second front. Highs likely will not top the mid- to upper-50s, with a brisk wind all day. Lows will plummet into the mid-30s on Friday night as winds start to pull back some. Some inland areas will be at risk of a light freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday will be a fine winter day, with highs of around 60 degrees and sunny skies. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Friday night, but still chilly. However, as the onshore flow resumes, temperatures will start to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s and increasingly cloudy skies. Sunday night’s lows probably will drop into the 50s.

Next week

The forecast for next week is a bit muddled, but generally I think we can expect a fairly wet period on Monday and Tuesday, with cloudy skies and pretty healthy rain chances. Highs for most of next week look to be in the 70s. A weak front is possible mid-week, but more likely we’ll have to wait until the latter half of the week for a noticeable cooldown. We’ll see.