Some people don’t like to talk about dewpoints because they’re confusing. But they’re a really helpful way to quickly assess how stick the air will feel. The scientific definition of a dewpoint is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to achieve a relative humidity of 100 percent. So if the air temperature is 70 degrees—which may sound comfortable—and the dewpoint is also 70 degrees it’s going to feel really sticky outside. But you don’t have to remember that definition for dewpoints, just this handy guide:

Dewpoints in the mid-50s or below: The air is dry and comfortable

Dewpoints in the mid-60s: The air starts feels somewhat sticky during the day, and somewhat muggy in the evenings

Dewpoints in the mid-70s or higher: Oh my god I’m dying.

I am sorry to say that today, specifically the period from around noon to late afternoon, is going to be our last shot of dewpoints in the 50s for awhile. After today we’re looking at dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the foreseeable future. While we may get a front to knock them back in 10 or more days, it is by no means a certainty. Welcome to May.

Wednesday

After some fog and clouds this morning, skies are going to clear out and leave us with a mostly sunny day. This, combined with the slightly drier air mentioned above is going to allow temperatures to pop up into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be slight, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the southeast. Some clouds return tonight, but lows should drop into the mid-60s for all but coast areas. This probably will be our last night in the 60s for quite a while.

Thursday

As high pressure moves off, the region will open up to a more pronounced flow off the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in more humidity and clouds, to go along with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. With increased moisture the region may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening and overnight. The most likely areas for this will be north and west of the metro area, in places such as College Station and Conroe. I would not expect anything particularly severe. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This three day period will be hot and humid. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies each day, with daytime highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Rain chances are not zero, and there will probably be a few isolated showers each day. But if you’re planning outdoor activities things should be fine as long as you have plan for some temporary shelter. Which to be clear, probably won’t be needed. In addition to hot days, nights will be warm and sticky, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Next week

The overall pattern does not change much next week. Daytime temperatures may drop a degree or two, but the humidity should remain more or less the same. Some better rain chances may pop up by the middle or end of next week. We’ll see.

After this morning, Houston has two more somewhat cool nights—with lows in the 60s and not oppressively high dewpoints—before things begin to warm up toward the weekend. By Friday morning we’re going to see lows only in the 70s with more humidity and well, that’s a fairly typical pattern for summer-time weather. So let’s talk about summer, which typically lasts about five months in Houston.

By strict definition “meteorological” summer runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with some regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

We’re going to reach early summer this weekend, when we probably will see a handful of 90-degree days.

Tuesday

Today will be the last of three days with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. High pressure will help to maintain an easterly flow, so we’re going to see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with clouds likely becoming more predominant later this afternoon. Winds will be light, out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid-80s, and we’re going to see a fair bit of sunshine. For a few hours on Wednesday afternoon we should actually see dewpoints drop into the 50s, which is going to be our last smidgeon of dry air for awhile. So maybe step outside and enjoy that last bit of light humidity. Because you know what’s coming, right? Winds will be light, and overnight lows will again drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

We’ll see one more day with temperatures in the mid-80s, but with more clouds than Wednesday. Winds will also be more pronounced out of the south, gusting to 20 mph or even a bit higher. This, my friends, is the full-on return of the onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, lows on Thursday night will only drop into the low 70s. There is a slight chance of light showers on Thursday night.

Friday

Despite mostly cloudy skies, we’re going to see warm and humid weather on Friday, with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 90 degrees. Given the moisture and a bit of instability to work with, we could see some scattered showers or possibly even a thunderstorm each day. But overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. If you have plans, we’ll try to refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Next week

Temperatures back off a bit next week, maybe. Rain chances perhaps will go up. I’d ballpark chances at 20 to 40 percent each day, but my overall confidence is low. The humidity looks to stick around. The models are hinting at a chance for a weak front in 10 to 14 days, but that is far enough in the future that I’d probably not even be writing that in pencil yet. Settle in, y’all. Summer is at the gates.

Good morning. Houston just experienced what was very likely its final truly spring-like weekend of the season, with temperatures bottoming out at 53 degrees on Sunday morning. We’re about five degrees warmer this morning, and after a few more nights in the 60s, lows are headed to the 70s by Friday morning, and we probably will stay there for awhile.

In truth, it has been a splendid spring. We have seen mild weather since mid-February, and while March was a few degrees above normal, April was a few degrees below normal. The bottom line is that we’ve had about 75 days of mostly temperate days and mostly cool-ish nights. To top it off, April brought some widespread rains that provided our region with a nice foundation of moisture heading into the hotter time of year. After these April showers, only Brazoria County is experiencing slightly drought-like conditions.

Of course all good things must come to an end. We still can see decent cold fronts in May, but time is running out. And there is scant sign of the next front in the models through the middle of the month. While things can certainly change, it seems pretty clear that spring is ending, and pre-summer has begun. For the next four to five months we can expect predominantly humid conditions, with warm to hot days. Some of you live for this weather, to which I say bless your hearts.

Monday

Quiet weather will prevail for much of this week due to a pattern known as an “omega block,” in which the pressure pattern over the continental United States looks like the Greek letter omega (Ω). With this pattern high pressure persists over the central part of the country while the coastal regions are under the influence of low pressure. For Houston that will mean partly sunny to mostly sunny weather through Thursday with moderate temperatures.

Expect highs today to reach about 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Light winds will turn more southerly this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Rain chances are zero.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the mid-80s. Lows will again be in the 60s. Winds will generally be light, out of the east and southeast. Humidity will be slowly rising, but not reaching oppressive levels. So these days should be fairly nice.

Thursday and Friday

A more pronounced onshore flow resumes by Thursday or so, and this will lead to more humid air. Highs may hold on in the mid-80s on Thursday, but by Friday we’ll see temperatures close to 90 degrees. Both days have a slight chance of seeing some light rain, along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm, with highs of around 90 degrees, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows by this point will only be dropping into the mid-70s—so almost summertime lows. Rain chances are sort of a question mark at this point. The air will be moistening, and we’re going to see a few disturbances pass overhead. But is it all going to come together and produce some rain? I’ll broad-bush some 30 percent chances for both days, and hope to get a more precise forecast for you in a day or two.

Next week

The pattern we see this weekend looks set to continue for most of next week. So lots of upper 80s and possibly lower 90s, to go along with warm-ish nights. As I said, welcome to pre-summer, Houston.

Despite the noisy storms early Thursday, we were rewarded with just a delightful Thursday evening and now a cool, pleasant Friday morning. Today looks great, but tonight may get noisy again, so mentally prepare now. But after some lingering showers Saturday morning, the rest of the weekend looks pretty great. And if you’re riding in the Texas MS 150, there’s all kinds of mixed news for you. Prepare those leg muscles.

Today

Any low clouds or patchy fog west of Houston should clear quickly this morning. Then, just spectacular. Sunshine, tolerable humidity, and highs in the 80s. Look for some clouds to begin to increase later today. Storms are not expected before evening in the Houston area at this point.

Tonight

It all changes after sunset. We expect a pretty well organized line of thunderstorms to develop across the I-35 corridor, somewhat like we saw on Wednesday evening. That line of storms is expected to plow south and east toward our region after 7 PM.

For College Station, it may arrive as early as 5 to 7 PM, moving south and east quickly into the Houston area after 8 to 9 PM. The SPC has us in a “slight” risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5), with parts of the Brazos Valley in the “enhanced” risk (level 3 of 5). We expect a well defined line of strong to locally severe storms with lightning, thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds (some chance of hail in the Brazos Valley). The line should weaken some as it approaches Houston. Once that initial line moves through, additional showers and rumbles of thunder (not severe) would continue into very early Saturday morning before ending after sunrise.

All in all we expect roughly a half-inch of rain or less, with some places seeing perhaps a bit more, mainly well northwest or well south of the city. Temperatures will fall into the upper-50s or low-60s.

Saturday

Any rain should clear early. We’ll probably hang onto the clouds for a few hours Saturday, but by midday the sun should be out. Saturday is going to be a bit of an odd duck for the end of April. It may feel a bit more like late winter than late spring. We’ll see temperatures probably in the 60s for most places, maybe low-70s with enough sun. Normally we see low-80s this time of year. Additionally, offshore winds are going to be cranking, around 20 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. Not quite a true ‘norther but about as close as you can get this time of year. Saturday night will see widespread 50s, if not even some 40s in parts of the area.

Sunday

Sunday should be a nearly perfect spring day. We’ll have sunshine, lighter winds, comfortable humidity, and temperatures in the low-80s, almost spot on normal for this time of year.

Texas MS 150

Alright, so if you read the sections above you know there’s mixed news. If you’re riding in the MS 150, here is the quick rundown.

• Comfortable humidity levels both days.
• Cool temperatures Saturday, warm temperatures Sunday afternoon.
• A wicked headwind Saturday, much less wind Sunday.

There’s no way to sugarcoat Saturday. The weather is going to be fantastic, but the wind is just going to be brutal. At times it may be more of a crosswind than a headwind, but it’s going to be coming out of the northwest or north-northwest sustained at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 30 or 35 mph, especially in exposed northwest facing ridges along the route.

On Sunday, you’ll trade warmer temperatures for less wind. The morning won’t start that way, with temperatures likely in the 40s in La Grange. We’ll quickly warm through the 50s and 60s into the 70s by mid to late morning and eventually near 80 degrees in College Station. The good news is that wind will be much lighter, only about 5 to 10 mph out of the west.

Next week and beyond

There’s not too much notable about next week here in the Houston area, weather-wise. Expect gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels through the week. We will probably level off with mid-80s for highs and mid to upper-60s for lows by Tuesday or Wednesday. Shower chances will return by then as well but right now no day looks to have particularly impressive rain chances.

The big question right now will be whether or not we can eke out another late spring cool front sometime next weekend. The map above is the Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook from Thursday. It shows a cool West and a cool East, with warm temperatures up in the northern Plains and Rockies. For Texas this time of year, these types of setups always cause us headaches. Can the cooler air get just enough oomph behind it to push south next weekend? Or will it just briefly, barely graze us and nudge off to the east quickly? If it can push through, expect another couple low humidity but mild days. If not, we’ll continue a more typical, humid late spring with rain chances. I’m optimistic we can squeeze a front through, but I also know that the odds in early May are not forever in our favor.