Houston just experienced a wild weekend of weather.

On Saturday our region set record high temperatures, with 81 degrees breaking the city’s previous record by 2 degrees, and plenty of sultry humidity. Also, the mosquitoes in my backyard were some of the worst I can ever recall in the Houston region, and I lived through Tropical Storm Allison. Not something I expected to see in January.

The storms on Saturday night were, frankly, more intense than expected. They brought heavy rains—while most of Houston saw 1 to 2 inches, a few pockets of the metro area saw as much as 5 inches—along with very active lightning and hail. There was even a funnel cloud that prompted tornado warnings.

And then things cleared out on Sunday morning. By the afternoon conditions were some of the nicest we will see all year. If you were outside yesterday afternoon, you know. Highs reached about 70 degrees, with sunny skies, dry air, and light northerly winds.

The good news is that we’ve got more pleasant weather on the way for this week.

Monday

Lows have bottomed out near 50 degrees this morning, and while there are some clouds I expect mostly sunny conditions later today. Accordingly, high temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-60s with light easterly winds. Rain chances are about 10 percent. Low temperatures on Monday night will be a few degrees warmer, perhaps dropping into the low 50s for much of the metro area.

Tuesday

As winds turn southerly, look for a partly sunny day on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s and increasing humidity levels. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will only drop into the low 60s, with slightly cooler condition further inland.

Wednesday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s with possibly a few readings of 80 degrees around the city. Wednesday night will be warm, with some scattered showers possible late Wednesday night ahead of the next front.

Thursday

The aforementioned front arrives Thursday morning, and it does not look like there will be a line of storms with this one. However, after the front’s passage we will see brisk northerly winds, and as a result the region will be colder for a few days in its wake. Look for sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s on Thursday, with temperatures dropping into the 40s Thursday night.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday and Saturday will be clear and chilly, with highs in the mid-60s. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday morning, possibly reaching the upper 30s for inland areas, with most of Houston around 40 degrees or a touch warmer.

If you’re running the Houston Marathon on Sunday morning, the onshore flow will probably have returned. So while start line temperatures may be in the vicinity of 50 degrees, the area will likely warm into the low 70s during the afternoon. Some uncertainty remains this far out, of course, but I feel reasonably confident in warming conditions, as well as very low to non-existent rain chances.

Next week

It looks like the next front will arrive some time on Monday, or so, and this will bring the region’s next real chance of rainfall. The overall details are fuzzy, but I’d guess that most of next week brings highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

We’ve got a little something for almost everyone over the next several days: Cool temps, warm temps, some humidity, and some rain too. A potpourri of mostly low impact weather.

Today

Southeast Texas should be able to squeeze out one more super nice day before clouds arrive this weekend. We may have a bit of a hazy morning with generally poor air quality. There’s even some locally dense fog south and west of Houston this morning. But it will eventually flip to sunshine. We’ll manage to climb into at least the mid-70s with just a slight nudge up in humidity by later today and tonight. Clouds should begin to break out tonight, which will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they have been of late. We’ll bottom out around 60, if not even a little warmer in spots.

Saturday

I would expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow. If you have morning plans, it should be mostly fine, though a few isolated showers may begin to break out in spots by mid or late morning. If you have afternoon plans, more showers will develop, especially toward the north and west of Houston. So you may dodge raindrops. That should become a little more widespread Saturday evening, along with a slight chance of thunder. Temperatures will jump well into the 70s to near 80 degrees tomorrow before dropping back into the 50s tomorrow night.

Rain totals may be held back some due to the scattered nature of the storms, but most of us will get at least some rain, with an average of a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch. Some may see less, and others could see as much as 2 or 3 inches in the most steady storms.

Sunday

Expect the inverse of Saturday: Some morning showers south and east of Houston but then decreasing clouds and increasing sunshine. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s.

Early next week

We may be in and out of clouds or some patchy fog on Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Other than that, it will be generally fair and mild. We think. With the weekend front sort of parked offshore, some coastal areas may see a few showers. Either way, it looks like a mostly quiet period, with increasing temperatures. We’ll warm from the mid to upper 60s Monday into the mid-70s by Wednesday, with morning lows generally in the 50s or upper-40s. Not bad for January.

Late next week and beyond

The next front in line is penciled in for Thursday. That should come with some showers or a thunderstorm, but it’s still a bit soon to speculate on how widespread any rain will be. More importantly, that front ushers in what should be our coolest air mass of 2023, with lows in the 40s by Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday.

Our outlook for the Houston Marathon has held fairly steady this week. Today it looks like morning 40s, quickly rising into the 50s and low-60s with light winds and dry weather. A lot can change in 9 days, but right now, we’re sitting in a decent spot.

It appears that any cool weather will be short-lived however, as we expect a pretty significant warm up after Sunday next weekend. We have pretty healthy model agreement on temperatures warming deep into the 70s as the weather pattern amplifies warmer over us for several days the week of the 16th.

Wednesday was an A+ weather day in Houston, and Mother Nature is going to get high marks again today as high pressure holds sway over our region. The forecast turns rainy by this weekend, with a healthy dose of clouds and rain chances through Monday before sunnier weather returns next week. Temperatures will remain fairly mild for the foreseeable future.

Thursday

With high pressure still in place, we’ll see sunny skies today with highs of around 70 degrees across the metro area. However this pattern starts to change later this afternoon or evening, as winds shift from the northwest to southeast. Due to this more southerly flow look for lows on Thursday night to be a few degrees warmer, bottoming out in the low 50s in Houston.

Friday

This will be another sunny day, but highs will climb into the mid-70s as a more pronounced southerly flow resumes. Look for fairly robust southeasterly winds, gusting to perhaps 20 mph. This will start to pump up atmospheric moisture levels. Low temperatures on Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be quite warm, with highs in the upper 70s. Local temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you see, as at least partly sunny skies are possible during the daytime. Some scattered showers will be possible during the day, but the better chances will hold off until Saturday night into Sunday, as a cold front slogs toward the area. Look for accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain for most into Sunday morning.

Sunday

For inland areas, rain chances will be fairly low after Sunday morning, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. Some showers may linger closer to the coast however, as the front may stall just offshore. Hopefully Matt will be able to fine tune the weekend forecast a little bit in tomorrow’s post. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston.

Next week

A second round of showers is possible on Monday as an atmospheric disturbance moves through, but I’m not expecting too much in terms of precipitation from this system. After that, much of the rest of next week looks partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s, and lows in the 50s. It looks like a stronger front may arrive by Thursday or Friday to knock overnight lows into the 40s for a bit. Rain chances look low for the weekend of the Houston Marathon to go along with cooler temperatures, but that remains subject to change this far out.

Paperback copy of Liftoff

This week the publisher of my book about the origins of SpaceX, titled Liftoff, released a paperback copy for the first time. I am happy to sign and personalize copies of this new paperback edition of Liftoff if you order a copy today from Houston-based Blue Willow Bookshop. You can find instructions for doing so here, if you are interested. Thanks!

Temperatures have dropped into the low 50s this morning in much of Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas, in the wake of Tuesday’s front. Sunny and pleasant weather will prevail until this weekend, when a slow-moving front will bring widespread rainfall into the region.

Wednesday

As high pressure settles across the region, we’ll see mostly sunny weather today with high temperatures pushing up to around 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, out of the west or northwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s tonight, which should be the coldest night of the week in Houston.

Thursday

This will be a similar day to Wednesday, with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. The only change will be in wind direction, with winds shifting to come from the southeast later on Thursday or Thursday night, which will presage a warmup heading into the weekend. Lows Thursday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Another sunny day, but it will be a little warmer with highs in the mid-70s. Humidity will also be on the rise, with a more southerly flow, but overall it will still not feel particularly sticky. Lows Friday night probably will drop to around 60 in Houston. Sea fog may start to become an issue by Friday night or Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

I think Saturday may start out with some sunshine, but with the onshore flow getting cranked up we are going to see increasing clouds and some scattered rain chances by late morning or the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees for areas that see some afternoon sunshine. The likelihood of rain increases Saturday night into Sunday morning as a slow-moving front slogs toward and through Houston, likely bringing 1 to 2 inches to much of the area. Sunday, as a result, will likely see mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 60s, and on-and-off rain showers. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the low 50s.

Next week

Rain chances will linger into Monday morning, but after that we should see partly to mostly sunny skies for much of next week. We’ll likely be in a pattern where we see highs on the order of 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s. Before next weekend I think we’ll see a stronger front move into the area. If you’re running the Houston Marathon this year, which is on Sunday January 15th, my guess would be for lows in the 40s, and low chances for precipitation. So that’s a hopeful forecast, but one that is far from locked in at this point.