In recent weeks the Houston area has had some decent chances for much needed rainfall after a very dry late summer and early fall. How dry? Houston’s Hobby Airport, for example, is now running a rainfall deficit this year of more than 25 inches. Those hoped-for rain storms have been hit or miss this month, however, with much of the area only picking up a smattering of rainfall.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but looking ahead to Friday the Houston region has another good chance of rainfall. As I’ll explain below I’m cautiously optimistic this one will deliver more widely. But hey, if you’re skeptical, I get it. Recent rain storms have definitely underperformed.

Wednesday

Today will bring no rainfall, of course, with high pressure overhead. Rather we can expect extraordinary fall weather, with sunny skies, dry air, and highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. As these winds shift to come from the east overnight, we can expect overnight temperatures to be a little warmer on Thursday morning, likely in the low-50s in Houston.

Thursday

As the onshore flow deepens on Thursday we’ll start to see humidity return, as well as some clouds later in the day and evening. Highs will be near 80 degrees, and with the warmer flow overnight temperatures are unlikely to fall below the mid-60s. This moistening of the atmosphere will set up healthy rain chances on Friday, ahead of a cold front.

Friday

The key ingredients will be in place for widespread showers, and possibly some heavier thunderstorms, on Friday: a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, a low-pressure system associated with an advancing front, and daytime heating. The extent to which all these line up will determine the amount of rainfall we see, but I think the majority of the area can probably expect about 1 inch, with the potential for more in areas where strong thunderstorms develop. Some street flooding is possible.

This is not a guarantee of rainfall, and with the underperformance of precipitation in recent months I’m hesitant to go further. But suffice it to say this is our best chance for a good soaking in quite a while. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with highs in the mid-70s. If you’re lucky enough to be going to Game 1 of the World Series, which starts at 7:03 pm CT on Friday evening, you can expect a chance of lingering showers, but the heavier rains will probably be gone. I’ll try to pin down the timing of storms in tomorrow’s post.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be cooler in the wake of the front. While the chance of showers should end by Saturday morning, some clouds could linger into the daytime. Look for highs near 70 degrees, with lows Saturday night in the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the low- to mid-70s.

Next week

Halloween’s weather on Monday will be far from frightful, with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. Expect very light winds and mild temperatures on Monday evening, perhaps near 70 degrees or just below.

The rest of next week looks warmer, with highs near or just above 80 degrees, and lows moving into the upper 60s. The next front may move in before next weekend, or not.

Good morning. Temperatures have fallen to about 60 degrees across much of the region this morning in the wake of the overnight frontal passage. Pleasant, fall-like weather will be the order of the day for the next week or so. And if you did not get enough rain with this front—and let’s be honest, you probably did not—there’s a second chance for a decent splash with another front arriving before the weekend.

Tuesday

Today will be rather breezy as northwesterly winds bring drier air into the region. Expect steady winds at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Highs will reach about 70 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds should start to back off some this evening, and as the Sun sets temperatures will follow, with lows dropping to about 50 degrees in Houston, with colder temperatures further inland, and a bit warmer conditions right along the coast.

Wednesday

This will be a gorgeous fall day, with light winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid-70s. Lows on Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer as winds shift to come from the east.

Thursday and Friday

As the onshore flow gets going, highs on Thursday should get into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. As a reinforcing front approaches Thursday evening we’ll start to see increasing rain chances Thursday night and running into Friday. The details about the front’s arrival are still a bit murky, but it’s probably safe to say that much of Friday will be cloudy, with a chance of rain persisting into the afternoon hours. I’d guess accumulations will be around 0.5 inch for most areas, but I don’t feel overly confident about that right now. Highs on Friday will probably be in the mid-70s, with lows dropping into the 50s by Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty grand, with highs of around 70 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. Lows will drop into the mid-50s or so for much of the area.

Next week

By Monday, Halloween, we should see a warming trend as highs climb into the mid-70s. For trick-or-treating, conditions should be rather mild, with temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, and just a touch of humidity. Rain chances look to be near zero.

Most of the rest of next week looks to be warmish, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies.

Good morning. A robust cold front will sweep into Houston tonight, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. This will be an in-your-face front, which in addition to the potential for storms will also bring gusty winds up to 40 or 45 mph—presumably enough wind to terrify a New York Yankee—and an almost immediate influx of drier air. The front will set the stage for a pleasant fall week. Halloween, too, looks pretty mild at this point.

On a related note, Sunday marked the seventh anniversary for Space City Weather. I’d like to thank the Astros for the win, which advances them to the World Series, and to all of you who have found the site and spread the word to others. Matt and I do appreciate it.

Monday

Today, ahead of the front, will be warm with temperatures in the mid-80s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with southerly winds that at times gust to 20 or 25 mph. Expect a few, very scattered, light showers. The big changes won’t come until the arrival of the front. There remains some wiggle room in timing, but it will likely push into the College Station area before or around midnight, reach Katy and The Woodlands shortly after midnight, downtown Houston around 2 to 3 am, and push off the coast a couple of hours before sunrise.

In addition to thunder and lightning, these storms have the potential to produce strong straight-line winds, and maybe a tornado or two. Most areas probably won’t see severe weather, but it remains a possibility for all locations. In terms of rainfall, most areas will pick up between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 15 to 20 mph after the front’s passage, with higher gusts. Temperatures should drop into the 50s for most areas by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

Showers will end quickly with the front’s passage, so Tuesday should be a sunny, windy day. Expect highs in the low 70s. Winds should finally start to die down by around sunset, falling back to 5 to 10 mph. This should help drop temperatures down to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer weather along the coast.

Wednesday

Another clear, sunny, and fine day with plenty of dry air and highs probably in the upper 70s. Lows on Wednesday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday night.

Thursday

As winds swing around to become more southerly, look for warmer and somewhat more humid conditions on Thursday, with a high near 80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will be in the 60s.

Friday

The good news is that these southerly winds will pump more moisture into the atmosphere, and this, in turn, will help amplify rain chances with another cold front later on Friday. The timing of the front is still somewhat in question, but right now I’d expect a healthy chance of showers and potentially thunderstorms on Friday as this front moves through. Perhaps there will be an inch of rain, or so, with this front. We’ll see.

Saturday and Sunday

In the wake of the front, the weekend looks sunny and cool, with highs in the low 70s and nighttime temperatures probably in the 50 to 55 degree range.

Halloween

We’re now one week from Halloween, on Monday October 31st, and by then the winds will probably have started to come back onshore. Daytime temperatures accordingly should be somewhere in the upper 70s, and evening temperatures rather mild, perhaps in the upper-60s to 70 degrees. At this long range I cannot rule out a chance of rainfall, but right now chances look rather low, and any rainfall probably would be light. For now, my expectation is a mild evening with a tinge of humidity.

Happy Sunday to you. Eric and I wanted to offer a quick update on the weather for ALCS game 4 in New York, the potential clincher. Additionally, we have some more clarity on our rain chances here in Houston for tomorrow.

Astros weather

In a perfect world, the Yankees would simply close the roof for game 4 tonight, and we’d play ball without any weather concerns. It would surely give them a bit less to complain about. Alas, the world is not perfect. You don’t need to be a meteorologist to look at the water vapor satellite image below and see that there’s a lot of something aimed at New York City.

As it turns out, it’s a deep plume of subtropical moisture that is aimed right at New York and New England and extends back to the Caribbean. In English, this means rain is likely in the Bronx today. The first pitch tonight is just after 7 PM Eastern time. The latest HRRR model forecast radar shows rain still in the area at this time.

Will it be raining enough in New York City at the planned start time to mess things up? No model is perfect, but a few have shown this outcome, so I am becoming more and more pessimistic that we’ll get a game in without some kind of scheduling issue today. Obviously, this is a problem because there are no off-days for the rest of the series. But that’s Major League Baseball’s problem to deal with. Our message is: If you have the brooms out tonight, there is at least some chance they may need to stand by until very late or tomorrow.

If the game does somehow on as planned tonight, you can expect temperatures in the 50s and a northeast wind (which at Yankee Stadium is blowing in) around 10 mph. Additionally, you’d almost certainly have intermittent showers, light rain, or drizzle. Philly will have similar issues today as well. So if you’re scouting the other side, you may have some issues there too. Tuesday’s weather won’t be perfect, but it looks better if they need to slide things a day.

Houston weather

Locally, we have no issues for Sunday so if you have an Astros watch party planned you might just have to find other ways to entertain yourselves. We will have a few extra clouds today, as some of the high clouds from Pacific hurricane Roslyn head this way. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid with 80s. Much like yesterday, there will be a healthy breeze off the Gulf today, gusting to 20 to 25 mph, possibly a bit more over the water. A shower is possible south of I-10 today, but it would likely be light and brief…maybe just enough to wet the ground.

Our cold front begins to arrive later tomorrow. Ahead of it, look for more clouds, a few isolated sprinkles or showers, and yes, more wind. Other than that, daytime Monday looks fine.

Monday night is when things get interesting. The good news is that Hurricane Roslyn will get shredded over Mexico. So, we don’t need to worry about that. But the remnant moisture and some of the “oomph” from Roslyn is going to interact with the cold front as it moves through Houston. This should allow for a developing, if not strengthening line of storms to push in Monday night with the front.

As the storms move in, there is at least some chance they could become strong to severe, with gusty winds being the main threat. This would, again, be late in the evening, if not after midnight. Eric will have the latest for you on Monday morning regarding any severe weather risk. Most of the area, especially north of I-10 should see a quarter to half-inch of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Helpful, but it won’t do much for the drought.

Tuesday should be much cooler and windy. It will feel like autumn again. More from Eric in the morning!