Good morning. Houston will see a brief warm-up today, with a healthy chance of rain showers, before a front ushers in the coldest week of the year since the depths of last winter. And by cold, I mean daytime highs mostly in the 50s, which is really rather chilly for mid-November. So dress warmly.

We are entering the second week of our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. This is your one opportunity to support what we’re doing here. Your purchase of merchandise, and donations (select “make a donation only”), compensates Matt and I for the work we do, keeps the site online during even the worst of storms, and allows us to contine developing our app, which is free for all. We are gratified by the response so far.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are starting out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the Houston metro area. Highs today should reach the mid-60s, and while this may not sound all that warm, it probably will be the warmest weather our region experiences this week with another front on the way. Before this front arrives, however, moisture associated with a low pressure system offshore will help to generate a healthy chance of rain today, mostly from around 10 am to 6 pm. Rain accumulations will be greatest along the coast, where 1 to 2 inches may fall. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. Further inland, amounts will decline to 0.25 to 0.75 inch, approximately, but almost everyone should see precipitation. The front’s arrival late this afternoon and evening will help shove the coastal low away, and bring drier air into Houston. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

Expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with northerly winds gusting to perhaps 20 or even 25 mph. Highs will be in the mid-50s. Rain chances are zero. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Some far northern areas, such as Huntsville, may see a light freeze.

Wednesday

This day will be similar to Tuesday, albeit with a few more clouds, and perhaps slighty less wind out of the north. Normal highs for this time of year are about 70 degrees, but we’re going to be experiencing dead-of-winter conditions this week. Dress warmly!

Thursday and Friday

The cold weather train chugs on to end the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions for this weekend remain uncertain. Days are likely to remain chilly, with highs in the 50s. But nighttime temperatures may moderate slightly as skies turn more cloudy. The overall pattern may bring another coastal low pressure system near the region, so we’re looking at the possibility of rain showers from Friday night into Saturday, with the best chances again near the coast. However, it’s too early to have much confidence in the finer details of the forecast beyond saying there’s a 40 percent chance of rain, or so.

Next week

So what does all this mean for conditions next week, and the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 24? Ten days is at the edge of our ability to forecast, however we can say a few things. At this point it appears another front may push into the area early next week, bringing us one more blast of colder air. The details on that are pretty fuzzy, but after this conditions should finally moderate back toward more “normal” weather for late November. By Wednesday or Thursday, therefore, the region may start to see highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s. For Thanksgiving, there is actually a decent signal in the global models for some rainfall but at 10 days out that really is a crapshoot. So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather. But there is a long ways to go, and a lot of turkey puns to write, before we get to a locked-in forecast.

Good morning. We’re jumping in on a Saturday morning to highlight the likelihood of very cold temperatures tonight across the metro area, and the potential for a freeze to the north.

If you’ve stepped outside you already know that it’s rather chilly. This is the result of colder and drier air working into the region during the overnight hours. With brisk northerly winds today, gusting up to 25 mph, more dry air will be moving in today. Highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees. This evening, as winds die down and with clearing skies, we’re going to see ideal conditions for cold weather.

Although I still think the urban core of Houston will remain at about 40 degrees tonight, areas north, west, and east of central Houston will drop into the 30s. Models have been trending colder with this air mass—hence this morning’s update—and we wanted people to be ready. Areas such as Katy, the Woodlands, and Kingwood will probably remain in the mid- to upper-30s tonight. However, areas further inland, including parts of Montgomery County, Brazos Valley, and the Piney Woods, may drop into the lower 30s and have a shot of seeing the region’s first freeze since mid-March.

The rest of the forecast is more or less on track, as Matt described on Friday. Sunday night won’t be nearly as cold and we’ll warm up briefly on Monday, at which point we’ll see a healthy chance of showers ahead of the next cold front. That one will keep things on the chilly side for the rest of next week. And by chilly side, I mean most days will be in the 50s, with lows perhaps around 40 degrees. In other words, inland areas will probably be looking at more freezing chances next week. We’ll have more for you on Monday.

Finally, just a brief reminder that we’re in the midst of our Annual Fundraiser. You can buy merchandise or support us with donations by visiting our main page. “Donate only” is any option under any of the merchandise selections. Thank you!

Happy Friday, and happy Veterans Day. Thank you to all those who have served so people like us can yap about weather. One-third of November is in the books now, and it’s the 10th warmest start to a November on record in Houston. The middle-third of the month will not be quite like that. In fact it looks downright chilly at times for next week. The change in seasons begins tonight.

Today

If you have any plans this morning, you should be fine. No real rain is expected, and other than a couple sprinkles on radar this morning, it’s quiet out there. By afternoon, things do begin to change. It will not rain everywhere, but we do expect scattered showers and storms to begin to pop up. Basically, if you have any plans after 2 or 3 PM, you do run the risk of running into showers.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms today, with a slight risk (2/5) toward Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. Basically, any storms that develop this afternoon and evening could have gusty winds, frequent lightning, and the typical heavy downpours we see. Expect coverage of storms to slowly but steadily increase as we head toward evening. High temperatures should get to about 80 or so.

Tonight

The actual front itself will probably swing through the Houston area between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight (lean toward the earlier end of that range on the west side of town and later end of that range on the east side). Off and on rain showers or downpours with thunder should continue through midnight. It will turn breezy and quite chilly overnight.

Look for lows in the 40s in most spots. With that, a gusty breeze will make it feel even a bit chillier. Be ready tomorrow morning!

Weekend

The weekend days both look fine. Tomorrow will have that somewhat annoying breeze in addition to temperatures in the 50s most of the day. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph. Sunday looks similar but less windy. Expect highs near 60 on Sunday afternoon after another morning of 40s.

Monday and Tuesday

Increasing clouds will build in for Monday with showers or rain likely developing as the day wears on. By evening, I would expect widespread showers or steady rain in most of the area. We’ll try to nudge back into the low-60s on Monday afternoon. Another cold front will push through on the back side of the rain Monday night, knocking us back into the 40s for Tuesday morning. Clouds may stay with us on Tuesday morning before clearing by afternoon, with highs in the 50s and a breeze.

By the time we get to Tuesday, we will hopefully have all seen close to an inch or more of rain between today and Monday.

Rest of next week

The rest of the week will keep us in autumn mode with 50s by day and 40s or even 30s by night in spots. Freezing temperatures may be possible in outlying areas by Thursday or Friday morning. It still seems unlikely within the city, but we’ll see how things trend this weekend. At this point, further rain chances beyond Tuesday seem low.

Fundraiser

Like Eric, I want to extend our appreciation for all those who have either contributed or purchased swag during our annual fundraiser so far! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just make a contribution, click an item, click “buy/donate,” and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Again, a sincere thank you for your support, and thanks as always for reading!

The Houston area is seeing moderately drier and cooler air this morning, with lows in the mid-60s. We will continue a slight downward trend in temperatures until the arrival of a strong cold front on Friday that ushers in much colder air for the weekend, and beyond. It still looks as though inland parts of the area will drop down into the upper 30s by Sunday morning, so this should be our first real taste of what passes for winter-like weather in Houston, since March.

Thursday

Western parts of the area are again seeing some patchy fog, but this will burn off within an hour or two of sunrise as air temperatures warm. Highs today will likely be in the low 80s, with mostly sunny skies, and light easterly winds. Those winds will be transporting moderately drier air as a result of the overall circulation of Hurricane Nicole, which struck the eastern coast of Florida early this morning. Low temperatures Thursday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Friday

Veteran’s Day will start out a lot like Thursday, and if you are attending any ceremonies during the morning hours the chance of rain is low. We will see the potential for at least some scattered showers during the afternoon hours, however, with the best chances during the evening hours before midnight. The front itself should move into the area, from northwest to southeast, during the late morning to late afternoon hours. As a result, highs on Friday will probably reach the upper 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will plunge overnight, into the 40s.

Saturday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs topping out at about 60 degrees. Winds will be brisk, gusting out of the north at up to 20 or 25 mph, although these will start to ease off during the the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday night, likely in the low 40s in central Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Sunday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny on Sunday, with high temperatures around 60 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will be about 5 degrees warmer that Saturday night as our air moderates somewhat.

Next week

Houston’s air will start to warm up, and become more humid on Monday in response to a more southerly flow. A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday, as highs get into the mid- to upper-60s. But just as you think warm weather might be coming back, a reinforcing cold front will arrive later on Monday to bring winter-like conditions back. Most of the rest of next week will likely see partly cloudy days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and nighttime lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

On Tuesday Space City Weather kicked off our annual fundraiser, and we really appreciate the support so far. Head over here to our fundraiser page to choose from a selection of merchandise, or to simply donate money (select “make a donation only”). This is your one chance during the year to directly support the work we do!