Good morning. After several days of on-and-off showers due to an infusion of tropical moisture, high pressure will begin to reassert its influence over our weather today, and this will push our temperatures back above normal for August. The heat will peak on Wednesday before a weak front brings some relief in the form of clouds, showers, and slightly lower daytime temperatures. Miraculously, we may then be looking at a week or so of near- or slightly below-normal temperatures for August in Houston. Yes, please.

On a completely unrelated note, I’m participating in the Bay Area “Dancing with the Stars” event on September 10 that will be held at the Doyle Convention Center in Texas City. I am not a dancer by an means, but I’ve been working hard with my partner for the event, Nassau Bay City Secretary Sandra Ham, to fix that. By some miracle, Mariel Blain of Dance Visions has taught us a more than 2-minute tango. In a few weeks we will compete on stage with five other couples to raise money for the Bay Area Alliance for Youth and Families. You can find out more information here, and if you’re so inclined you can support your favorite couple by text, or buying a table.

Monday

Today will bring partly sunny skies to the region, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid-90s for much of the Houston region (far inland areas will be hotter). This is somewhat of a transition day, as high pressure is still building over the area. As a result there may still be a 10 or 15 percent chance of rain, but consider yourself lucky if you see a brief shower. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure fully in control we’ll see highs jump into the upper 90s to 100 degrees for much of the region. Wednesday looks like the hottest day of the week, when much of the metro area should reach triple digits. Rain chances will be low to nil for the region.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday will probably start out hot again, but the aforementioned weak front should push into the Houston area during the daytime, bringing clouds and an elevated chance of rain through Friday or Friday night. Much of the area will probably see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain during this period, but that is a general guess at this point rather than a high confidence forecast. Thursday will be hotter ahead of the front, but highs on Friday may top out at around 90 degrees. The front will not result in appreciably lower dew points, but it will at least take the sting out of daytime highs.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

High pressure should not reassert itself this weekend, or heading into the weekend. As a result, I think we’re looking at a fairly sustained stretch of weather in the low 90s for this weekend and beyond, with decent 30 to 40 percent daily rain chances. This could be weather like we were supposed to have in June, but did not. Either way, for the historically hottest time of the year, we’ll take anything we can get.

Invest 98L, the tropical disturbance we’ve been watching over the Gulf the last couple days, is now ashore in South Texas, ending any potential development concerns. And it’s probably a good thing, as the disturbance finally starting organizing more rapidly overnight and this morning.

Another 12 to 24 hours over water probably would have led to a formidable named storm. Thankfully, that isn’t the case, and the steady march westward of 98L will continue through the day. For our neighbors to the south, this is about as good an outcome as you could ever ask for: Widespread drought-easing tropical rains without the damaging impacts of a strong tropical storm or hurricane.

Additional rains will add up to about 1 to 4 inches, maybe a bit more in some spots in far south Texas or northern Mexico. Flash flooding is definitely a possibility in spots, but in most cases, it should be brief and manageable. More importantly, reservoirs and rivers in that region will get a boost.

Houston weather

For the Houston area, 98L’s last minute organization really robbed us of moisture to work with initially. As winds turn back onshore today, we should see a slight bump up in shower activity leading to more scattered action. The highest odds of rain will be near Matagorda Bay, with the lowest odds northeast of Houston. Still, there will be scattered showers around anywhere today, and even if your neighborhood will probably remain dry, it will be good to take an umbrella with you if you’ll be out and about. Highs into the mid-90s, cooler south, hotter inland.

Rain chances drop off substantially Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Look for a return to upper-90s, if not 100 degrees in much of our area to start the upcoming week. Better rain chances are still on target to return Thursday or Friday, as a generally wetter, cooler pattern tries to establish over Texas. I don’t want to overstate anything, but modeling continues to strongly argue for a bonafide pattern change in Texas heading into and beyond next weekend. Eric will have more for you tomorrow morning.

Friday saw some very scattered rain across the area. Most inland areas got nothing, but a few spots picked up a half-inch to an inch or so. A few areas around Galveston Bay and along the coast saw a bit more. That refrain will be with us today, with inland areas mostly escaping storms, but coastal areas seeing the highest odds. This is thanks to Invest 98L, the tropical disturbance off the coast that will be tracking toward the southern part of Texas, keeping most of the rain to our south.

Invest 98L

A look at satellite this morning shows that 98L is spinning away in the Gulf. It remains ill-defined, so any development is not going to happen quickly, and it will almost certainly run out of time to become anything of note before coming ashore.

A reconnaissance aircraft is on the schedule to investigate this system around midday today, if it is still deemed necessary. The three big points from our perspective are:

1.) Any tropical development is going to be low-end and short-lived.

2.) No direct impacts are expected in the Houston area or along the coast north of Freeport.

3.) The primary issue in South Texas (Rio Grande Valley, Brush Country, Corpus Christi) from 98L will be heavy rainfall, mostly beneficial but perhaps enough to produce some flash flooding.

Minor coastal impacts, like some erosion or wave runup are possible from Matagorda Bay south. For Galveston down through Surfside Beach, the water may runup the beach a good bit at high tide but flooding is not expected.

Houston area

With 98L not a direct concern for us, we will be on shower watch today. From downtown Houston to the north and west, minimal shower activity is expected today, with just a handful of downpours possible, much like yesterday. South and east of downtown, the odds of showers are notably higher, but even there it will be mostly just scattered in nature, meaning some folks won’t see rain. Wherever showers do fall, a quick half-inch to inch will be possible. Highs will range from the 80s on the coast to upper-90s inland.

For Sunday, expect much more of the same. Some of Sunday will depend on how organized 98L gets before coming ashore. If it can consolidate most storminess, it may keep most areas, even near the coast dry. If it remains broadly disorganized, scattered showers will be more likely, mainly south and east of downtown Houston. We’ll update you on this tomorrow!

We apologize if you did not receive an email yesterday. We had some technical issues to sort out, and hopefully those are fixed before I press send today!

While we lacked any organized storms on Thursday, there were some neighborhoods that saw a smattering of rain. Other places saw rain or heard thunder in the middle of the night. Rain chances will stick with us through Sunday, but the focus is going to lean more to our south or along the coast.

Today & weekend

Radar this morning is buzzing from Houston to points southeast. Scattered downpours are with us.

As the day progresses, the focus will continue to likely back down to areas closer to the coast. Inland areas will still carry a chance for rain as well, but most modeling (and the morning radar imagery) suggests the bulk of today’s showers will remain south and east of Houston. Low rain chances doesn’t mean no rain chances, and any rain that does fall could be heavy and add up to an inch or so over a short amount of time.

Highs will be variable today, ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low or mid 90s inland and perhaps near 100 in the Brazos Valley.

One wild card in the forecast the next few days is what’s happening in the Gulf. Recall from Tuesday’s Eye on the Tropics post, we noted that the Gulf would be the area to at least monitor.

Well, as of Friday morning, there is a disturbance in the Gulf, and while it’s not currently expected to develop, what it may do is focus shower and storm activity offshore at times this weekend. The system itself will track toward Corpus Christi or Brownsville, pushing inland on Sunday. Assuming showers and storms do focus closer to that system, that could mean that we see relatively low rain chances in the Houston area for Saturday.

So, for both weekend days, expect to see sun, clouds, and at least a few showers and storms in the area. The greatest coverage and highest chances will be along the coast, with chances dropping off significantly as you head north or west from Highway 59. All of us have some chance at rain this weekend, but your odds increase south and east of Houston. Sunday could see higher rainfall coverage a little more inland as winds become less parallel to the coast and more onshore. But we’ll assess that through the weekend and keep you posted.

Total forecast rainfall this weekend (ending Monday morning) is shown below. While some areas will see more rain than this and others less, this map is a good average of where we think things will end up over the coming days.

Temperatures will be quite variable this weekend, perhaps only in the low 80s with clouds and showers on the coast, mid-90s in Houston proper, and upper 90s to near 100 well inland.

Early next week

We revert back to the usual Summer 2022 fare Monday through Wednesday of next week. We will likely see mid to upper-90s in Houston, with 100+ farther inland and lower 90s at the coast.

Rain chances should drop to about 10, maybe 20 percent each day.

Later next week

I’ve been watching the weather model forecasts all week with some curiosity for late next week or weekend. There have been hints of a cooler, wetter pattern arriving across all of Texas on both the GFS & European models. While it’s too soon to get into details, it does appear we will see a chance at a front in the area, some “less hot” (not cool) weather, and potentially some higher rain chances than normal by next weekend. We have been burned by these scenarios more than once this summer, so I’m not exactly jumping in with both feet here. But there’s a healthy amount of evidence that rain chances will pick up further in 8 to 10 days. More on this Monday.

We’ll keep you posted on the rain chances this weekend with a post or two tomorrow or Sunday.