Happy Sunday to you. Eric and I wanted to offer a quick update on the weather for ALCS game 4 in New York, the potential clincher. Additionally, we have some more clarity on our rain chances here in Houston for tomorrow.

Astros weather

In a perfect world, the Yankees would simply close the roof for game 4 tonight, and we’d play ball without any weather concerns. It would surely give them a bit less to complain about. Alas, the world is not perfect. You don’t need to be a meteorologist to look at the water vapor satellite image below and see that there’s a lot of something aimed at New York City.

As it turns out, it’s a deep plume of subtropical moisture that is aimed right at New York and New England and extends back to the Caribbean. In English, this means rain is likely in the Bronx today. The first pitch tonight is just after 7 PM Eastern time. The latest HRRR model forecast radar shows rain still in the area at this time.

Will it be raining enough in New York City at the planned start time to mess things up? No model is perfect, but a few have shown this outcome, so I am becoming more and more pessimistic that we’ll get a game in without some kind of scheduling issue today. Obviously, this is a problem because there are no off-days for the rest of the series. But that’s Major League Baseball’s problem to deal with. Our message is: If you have the brooms out tonight, there is at least some chance they may need to stand by until very late or tomorrow.

If the game does somehow on as planned tonight, you can expect temperatures in the 50s and a northeast wind (which at Yankee Stadium is blowing in) around 10 mph. Additionally, you’d almost certainly have intermittent showers, light rain, or drizzle. Philly will have similar issues today as well. So if you’re scouting the other side, you may have some issues there too. Tuesday’s weather won’t be perfect, but it looks better if they need to slide things a day.

Houston weather

Locally, we have no issues for Sunday so if you have an Astros watch party planned you might just have to find other ways to entertain yourselves. We will have a few extra clouds today, as some of the high clouds from Pacific hurricane Roslyn head this way. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid with 80s. Much like yesterday, there will be a healthy breeze off the Gulf today, gusting to 20 to 25 mph, possibly a bit more over the water. A shower is possible south of I-10 today, but it would likely be light and brief…maybe just enough to wet the ground.

Our cold front begins to arrive later tomorrow. Ahead of it, look for more clouds, a few isolated sprinkles or showers, and yes, more wind. Other than that, daytime Monday looks fine.

Monday night is when things get interesting. The good news is that Hurricane Roslyn will get shredded over Mexico. So, we don’t need to worry about that. But the remnant moisture and some of the “oomph” from Roslyn is going to interact with the cold front as it moves through Houston. This should allow for a developing, if not strengthening line of storms to push in Monday night with the front.

As the storms move in, there is at least some chance they could become strong to severe, with gusty winds being the main threat. This would, again, be late in the evening, if not after midnight. Eric will have the latest for you on Monday morning regarding any severe weather risk. Most of the area, especially north of I-10 should see a quarter to half-inch of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Helpful, but it won’t do much for the drought.

Tuesday should be much cooler and windy. It will feel like autumn again. More from Eric in the morning!

Yesterday was just glorious. Definitely a top 10 day. And the Astros won with the roof open. Today will be fairly nice, albeit a bit warmer and just a tinge more humid. Look for humidity to increase a bit further this weekend before we get involved in a little mischief and hopefully some meaningful rain chances next week.

Today

More of the same from the last couple days; just add about 5 degrees or so. Look for ample sunshine and slowly increasing humidity. We’ll top off generally in the mid-80s, with a few spots a little hotter.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look predominantly dry, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be fine. I mean, I guess a sprinkle or shower is possible on Sunday, but I won’t belabor the point. Look for sunny skies Saturday with a few more clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper-80s.

If you want to complain about something other than hotter temps, perhaps the wind may draw your ire this weekend. We expect southerly winds sustained around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up over 25 mph at times, especially over the water or at night in far inland locations. It will be the strongest onshore wind we’ve had since possibly springtime.

Monday and Tuesday

Our first attempt at mischief comes later Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. There are still questions as to how much moisture this front will have, but at the very least there’s a notable chance for a period of showers, possibly some heavy ones, Monday night or Tuesday. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for major drought relief, but we’re hopeful for some meaningful rain at least. I’m not sure how your backyard is doing, but I have only seen a quarter-inch in mine over the last 45 days. Any rain is better than none.

It will be a warm and humid Monday with decreasing humidity later Tuesday. We should manage the 80s on Monday, with morning lows in the 70s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler with 70s from morning into afternoon.

Later next week through Halloween

After a couple cool days Wednesday into Thursday (AM lows in the 50s), we’ll probably get another surge of humidity on Friday before a cold front wipes it out late or into Saturday. Again, the big question swirls around how much rain we’ll actually see. Much like with Tuesday, I would remain cautiously optimistic for some helpful rain. That should setup a lovely weekend. The early read on Halloween is probably seasonably pleasant (think maybe 60s at Trick or Treat time), but we’ll check in on that more next week.

Good morning. The forecast for the Houston area remains more or less on track, with a warming trend through the weekend followed by some sort of front, and maybe some rain, on Monday or Tuesday of next week. I don’t want to make too much about the rain chances early next week—as some recent rain events have underperformed—but I am cautiously optimistic about what’s ahead.

Thursday

This will be our last cold morning of the week, with most of the area in the 40s. However change is afoot as high pressure moves off to the southeast, and our northerly breezes are replaced by a southwesterly flow. As a result highs today will be quite a bit warmer, reaching the low 80s, beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees in the city of Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

A warmer day still, with highs in the mid-80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-60s. There will still be a modicum of drier air, but it will gradually be blown away.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks warm, with highs in the mid-80s, and for some inland locations possibly the upper 80s, to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will be on the rise, but we’re not going back to summertime humidity. Overnight lows are unlikely to drop out of the 70s. Rain chances are not zero this weekend, but they’re probably on the order of 10 percent. So near enough for most purposes.

Next week

The big uncertainty in the forecast concerns the details of what happens next week. There remains a pretty large discrepancy in terms of the timing of the front, and that is important for determining our rain chances. Essentially, a Pacific Hurricane will be moving into Mexico this weekend, and it will push a large amount of moisture into Texas on Monday. If the front makes it through on Monday night or early Tuesday, it will synch up with this moisture and produce a decent amount of rainfall, perhaps 1 to 2 inches.

However, if the front is later on Tuesday or Tuesday night, it might miss this slug of moisture, and our rain chances and potential accumulations will be less.

Broadly speaking, most of next week and weekend do look cooler as not only are we getting some sort of initial front, but a secondary push of cooler air is expected later next week. So probably we’re looking at an extended period of highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. It should be rather fall-like and nice if it all comes together.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally fallen into the low to mid-40s across much of Houston this morning, with a few colder spots such as the interior of Montgomery County—upper 30s—and a few warmer ones along the coast where lows remain in the low 50s. This will be the coldest morning of the week, but we’ll have one more chilly night before we warm up for the weekend. Next week’s forecast still looks a bit messy, but my expectation is for another front with some rainfall.

Wednesday

Today will be sunny again, with highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be out of the north at 5 to 10 mph, before turning more southerly later today or tonight. Expect one more chilly night, with lows a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday night. So again, most of the area should drop into the 40s away from the coast.

Thursday and Friday

As the onshore flow gets going, we’ll start to see a gradual rise in humidity levels, but Thursday should still see pretty dry air. Look for sunny skies and highs in the low 80s, with moderate southerly winds. Lows Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees. Friday will be warmer, with sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty warm, and it will feel especially so after the cooler weather preceding it. Look for mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Overnight lows will generally drop into the upper 60s. Humidity will be back, it it won’t be full-on summertime humidity. Days will be fairly breezy, with southerly winds likely gusting to 15 to 20 mph.

Next week

We’ll be watching a few things next week including a large trough of low pressure in the atmosphere moving across the plains along with a cold front, and a hurricane in the Pacific Ocean that could transport atmospheric moisture across Mexico and into Texas. While the big picture seems clear the details of the interaction between these weather systems over our area, as of yet, are not.

The bottom line is that I think we can expect to start to see more clouds by Sunday night or Monday, and an increase in rain chances on Monday or Monday night. The front itself will probably arrive on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Alas, how much rain we get, and how much colder and drier air moves in behind the front, remains very much uncertain. My general expectation would be on the order of half an inch of rain and nights in the 50s, but I don’t feel overly confident in that. Sometimes with these kinds of fall-like patterns we see quite a bit of rain, but so far there’s no big signal for that in the models. We shall see.