Good morning. We are now a little more than two days out from an Arctic blast that will bring the Houston region its coldest weather since a deep freeze in February 2021. If you’ll recall, that freeze prompted widespread power outages across the metro area as power plants were taken offline due to improper winterization. For a lot of people, this was miserable. For a more than a few people, it was deadly.

This loss of power magnified a cold weather event that was already tremendously destructive to pipes and plants. State officials say they have addressed these winterization concerns at power plants, and lacking sufficient expertise we are taking them at their word. What we can say is that the magnitude of this Arctic air likely to be similar to February 2021, although not quite as deep or prolonged. It will provide a meaningful test of whether the state’s electric grid has, in fact, been hardened. We also do not anticipate in any snow, sleet, or freezing rain to complicate travels on area roadways.

The image below compares the hour-by-hour temperatures observed during the February 2021 freeze (blue line) with the current forecast for temperatures (white line) at Bush Intercontinental Airport from the National Weather Service.

Tuesday

There has not been much change to our overall thinking when it comes to the forecast. We will see mostly cloudy skies today, with highs in the mid-50s and modest northerly winds. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

Conditions will be a lot like Tuesday, with similar highs. The only meaningful change is that winds will shift to come from the southeast by Wednesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 40s.

Thursday

The first half of Thursday will see a decent warmup, as the onshore flow starts to bring a southerly flow. Areas south of Interstate 10 may even briefly reach 70 degrees before the front barrels through during the afternoon and early evening hours. While we can’t rule out a few light showers, we don’t expect any impactful precipitation. We’re still looking at sharp temperature drops in the immediate aftermath of the front’s passage, and gusty winds to 35 or 40 mph. Conditions overnight into Friday morning will be extremely unpleasant.

Friday

Low temperatures will bottom out on Friday morning. How cold? There’s still some wiggle room on the details, but lows will likely reach 15 to 20 degrees inland of Interstate 10, with slightly warmer conditions in the metro area of 17 to 22 degrees, and lows in the low- to mid-20s closer to the coast. Although skies will be mostly sunny on Friday, highs will only warm to near freezing briefly, with blustery winds throughout the day. Overnight lows should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer on Friday night.

Saturday

Highs will climb to around 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, with mostly sunny skies. Travel for the holidays should be fine, with dry roadways. Lows on Saturday night will probably still drop into the mid-20s in Houston, with even colder conditions further inland.

Christmas Day

Look for mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 40s on Christmas Day. Lows may drop to freezing, or just above, in Houston that night.

Next week

Expect a steady warming trend next week, with temperatures in the low 70s by Wednesday. After that? The crystal ball for New Years celebrations remains a bit hazy. Rain chances do appear low until late next week, at the earliest.

The forecast is now pretty well locked in for this week: We’ll see wet conditions today, followed by three cloudy and not too cold, not too hot days. Then on Thursday, likely during the afternoon or evening hours, temperatures are going to plunge as a very sharp front whips into the area and causes temperatures to plummet. Precautions for a hard freeze, including protecting exposed pipes, plants, pets, and people should be taken ahead of time.

Monday

A coastal low pressure system is helping to drive rain showers across the metro area this morning, and these will continue on and off throughout the day. These should be more nuisance showers than anything, as accumulations are likely to be fairly low, less than 1 inch for most areas. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 50s with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions out of the east at 15 to 20 mph. Rains should mostly end by sunset as the system moves off to the east. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy day. We will start off with a very slight chance of light rain and fog, but most people should stay dry. Otherwise, expect a high in the mid-50s, with chilly northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph out of the north. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

Another cloudy and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s.

Thursday

Skies should start to clear out some, and for areas closer the coast where there is sunshine, we could see high temperatures jump up into the 60s, or possibly even 70 degrees. But this will be a mirage, as a strong front will be dropping down toward Houston with very strong winds, and extremely dry and cold air. This front looks set to reach the metro area some time during the afternoon or early evening hours, after which time temperatures will drop 30 to 40 degrees within a few hours.

By around sunset, or shortly afterward, I expect much of Houston to be in the 20s, with wind chills making it feel much colder. (Winds will be gusting up to 40 mph, likely). Bottom line: you will not want to be outside on Thursday night. Lows for actual temperatures by Friday morning will likely drop into the upper teens for much of Houston. The very dry air should preclude the possibility of precipitation, which is a good thing as it should keep our area roadways dry during the hard freeze.

Friday

Although skies will be sunny on Friday, temperatures should remain in the mid- to upper 20s for much of Houston, with the coast possibly seeing a brief blip above freezing. Another hard freeze is likely on Friday night, with lows dropping into the low 20s for the Houston metro area. Area roadways, and those across much of the state, should be dry for Friday and much of the holiday weekend, easing travel concerns.

Saturday

We should see more sunshine on Saturday, and this should help drive area temperatures into the upper 30s to 40 degrees. However, lows on Saturday night still could drop into the mid-20s with the Arctic air mass hanging around.

Christmas Day

After a cold start, highs on Christmas Day should warm into the mid-40s with partly to mostly sunny skies. A light freeze is possible on Sunday night.

Next week

After the hard freeze, next week looks much warmer, with highs rebounding into the 60s during the early part of the week, and back into the 70s toward the end of the week. After today, rain chances look fairly low for awhile.

A message from our partner, Reliant

We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed about
seasonal weather – without the hype. With colder weather coming just in time for the holidays, Reliant
wants to share a few easy ways to prepare for dropping temperatures, so you can stay in control of your
electricity usage while staying warm.

With some simple preparation and by following these tips, you can keep your heating system from
working harder than it needs to and avoid unexpected winter electricity bills.

• Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, keeping your thermostat around 68
degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above 68, you can typically expect a 3-5%
increase in heating costs.
• Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With minimal effort and cost, you can seal out the
cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.
• Let the sun in. If the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar
screens to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.
• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of
how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans, as
heat can escape through these outlets.
• Get a programmable thermostat, like the Google Nest. This can help you save up to 12 percent on
heating costs without lifting a finger.
• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your air filters and furnace or heat pump are clean
and in good working order so that your system can run as efficiently as it should.
• Protect your pipes. Shut off exterior faucets, drain water from outdoor pipes and insulate them
if a hard freeze is expected (28 degrees or lower for an extended period of time) to prevent
them from bursting.

For more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for the cold and additional tips to lower your winter
electricity bill, download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist and visit Reliant.com/WinterTips. As always,
we’re available 24/7 via phone at 1-866-222-7100 and online chat to support customers. Happy
holidays!

Good afternoon, everyone. We are now only about four days from the start of a massive chill down that will plunge the Houston area into a deep freeze. The forecast has not changed substantially since Matt’s update on Saturday, but we wanted to provide you with the latest thinking we have on timing and intensity. The bottom line is that we all need to be prepared for a hard freeze, and this includes taking the following precautions:

• Pipes and plumbing: Exposed pipes and plumbing needs to be winterized to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and drained. If you will be leaving Houston for the holidays, you should consider turning off the main water supply in case the pipes in your home burst.
• Outdoor vegetation and plants: It will be difficult to fully protect tropical plants due to the deep nature of this freeze, but providing some cover may prevent them from being killed. Plants in pots should be brought into the home or garages.
• Pets and livestock: Because the temperatures will be so low, and for many areas will remain below freezing for longer than a full day, animals should be brought into warmer spaces or they may be killed by the cold.

We know that readers have a lot of questions about the ability of ERCOT to keep power supplied to the state given the hard freeze coming into much of Texas. This is beyond the scope of our ability to forecast, but state officials have expressed confidence in the grid, and we do not expect statewide temperatures to be nearly as cold as experienced during the Valentines Day freeze of 2021. So things will probably be OK. But we can offer no guarantees.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

We will continue to see high temperatures in the 50s this week, with nighttime lows generally in the 40s. The big story for the start of the week is widespread rain showers on Monday, which will probably bring 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain to much of the area. It looks like these will be primarily daytime showers, with chances ending around sunset or shortly thereafter as the disturbance pushes off to the east. After Monday, we can expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail until Thursday.

Thursday

On Seinfeld, Frank Costanza created the “holiday” of Festivus to be celebrated on December 23. Among the holiday’s activities was an “airing of grievances.” Well, on Thursday we’re going to get an airing of frigidness. Daytime highs may get into the 60s or possibly even 70 degrees near the coast on Thursday ahead of the front, which will sweep through the region rapidly from northwest to southeast. In terms of timing, I think late-afternoon is most likely for the front’s passage, but some wiggle room remains.

After the front’s passage temperatures will drop into the 30s quickly, with very strong northerly winds, perhaps gusting up to 35 or even 40 mph. While precipitation is probably not a concern, these winds will very quickly sap any heat if you are out of doors. Conditions overnight on Thursday are just going to be nasty outside. Temperatures will bottom out on Friday morning across the region. I think it is possible that even areas south of Interstate 10 briefly drop into the teens.

Friday

This will be a very cold day. It is possible that some areas reasonably close to the coast will briefly climb above freezing, but much of the metro area is going to remain in the upper 20s to 30 degrees despite sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will still be very, very cold, but should be 3 to 5 degrees above those on Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve will start out freezing, but with at least partly sunny skies daytime temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-30s for all but far inland areas. We can’t entirely rule out some light precipitation, but right now this period looks dry. This should make holiday travel across the region, and much the state, easier.

Christmas Day and beyond

After yet another freeze, Christmas Day should see highs in the 40s. It will be almost balmy!

Right now most of next week should bring a warming trend, with highs eventually climbing close to 70 degrees by Wednesday or so.

Good afternoon. Eric and I felt it was a good idea to post an update today on the growing potential that a hard freeze will impact Houston later this upcoming week. Since yesterday, there have been a handful of changes. I will admit that the behavior of yesterday’s front (somewhat stronger and faster than expected) factored into some of this thinking. Sometimes we refer to this as “recency bias,” but truthfully, sometimes the atmosphere can offer up some hints to help us as forecasters.

Bottom line: Temperatures are going to absolutely plummet Thursday afternoon, likely from the 60s or 70s into the 30s over the course of about 4 to 6 hours. We will drop below freezing Thursday afternoon or evening and may not get back up above freezing until Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday will likely drop into the teens or low-20s for the city of Houston and most surrounding areas away from the immediate coast. In addition, potent northerly winds will create dangerous wind chill values in the single digits from Thursday evening through Friday morning. We do not expect any snow or ice at this time, a key difference from February 2021, in addition to the intensity and duration of cold.

Preparedness

A few thoughts on preparedness for this event. The duration of this cold, the lack of snow and ice, and the intensity of the cold statewide will still lag February 2021, so at this point, we’ll take ERCOT at their word that grid conditions should be manageable. Still, having a winter preparedness kit at the ready is never a bad idea.

This will be a painful freeze for plants, especially given the wind that will accompany the cold. Make every effort to ensure that any tropical plants are protected and as secure as possible, as the wind will be enough to dismantle any weak, unsecured covering.

If you have one, make sure your irrigation system is protected, drained, and turned off.

If you are leaving town late this week, it would be a good idea to consider turning off the main water supply to your home before you go out of an abundance of caution.

Any winterization you can do this weekend or before you leave town is good and will help. If we end up 5 degrees warmer than forecast, great. Please don’t forget pets, livestock, and any folks you know that are extra vulnerable to cold.

Again, this is different than February 2021’s event and should not be quite as bad, but it will be able to cause problems of its own.

Sunday through Wednesday

The forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday. We expect widespread rain Monday and lingering showers into Tuesday morning. Wednesday should be fine.

Thursday and Friday

The exact timing of the cold front is impossible to pin down right now. Most models point to late afternoon, and given the potential “stronger, faster” behavior of the front, I would lean toward late morning or midday in Houston proper, sooner north and west, later south and east. While we cannot say exactly what the temperature drop will be behind the front, it easily looks to be 30 to 40 degrees colder over a very short period of time. If you are working Thursday, be prepared for a completely different kind of weather when you leave work than when you go to work.

The good news is that this looks like a dry front, so we do not expect rain, snow, or ice. That helps differentiate this a lot from February 2021, when it was impossible to even travel due to ice and snow.

The bad news is that this will be accompanied by wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph or even stronger. That, plus the combination of plunging temperatures will make Thursday night and Friday morning dangerously cold outdoors. Look for lows in the upper teens to low-20s. We could nudge things up or down from here as we get new data in the coming days.

The good news is that Friday should be sunny. The bad news is that we may be lucky to reach 32 degrees. The sun will surely help matters on Friday, but it will be deceptive and remain very, very cold and breezy through the day. Another night in the 20s seems likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Some models do show high clouds streaming through, which could help keep temps up a bit for night two of the freeze, but it’s too soon to bank on that.

Next weekend

After another cold morning Saturday, we should expect to rise above freezing Saturday afternoon (currently thinking about 35-40 degrees). Lows in the 20s will again be possible Saturday night, though not as cold as Thursday and Friday nights. Sunday should see highs back in the 40s.

It’s too soon to completely rule out the possibility of a system Sunday or Monday that could bring some wintry precipitation to the area, but I will be honest and tell you that our already low odds have dropped since yesterday and Thursday. Alas, despite the cold, as of now we think travel across Texas will be fine through the holiday weekend. We will share more about weather across Texas for the holiday weekend as we get closer. Eric will have the latest on our forecast tomorrow.