My friends it has been a long—so very long —summer. We have seen record warmth in June and July, and plenty of high temperatures in the upper 90s during the last week. A total of 131 days have come and gone since Houston’s high temperature first hit 95 degrees this year, on May 18. Fortunately, I’m pretty confident that today is the last day of summer 2022.

Oh, we’re still going to see some 90-degree days. There will still be some humidity, of course. But our first real front pushes in today, bringing with it a nice surge of drier air tonight. By Tuesday morning it’s going to feel quite a bit different outside. No, the days won’t be chilly, but the nights will feel like fall. And the dry air is going to feel pretty amazing. Additionally, unlike a lot of early fall fronts, this one will have sticking power. The dry air should last into the weekend. So enjoy what’s coming, because you earned it.

Meanwhile, there’s likely to be a major hurricane coming to Florida this week. We’ll discuss that below as well.

Monday

There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that today is going to be hot again. Expect highs to generally reach the low-90s across the region, with sunny skies. Light winds will turn to come from the northeast later today as the front pushes into the area. We don’t expect much (if any) precipitation with this front, and the bulk of the dry air will lag its passage, moving in tonight. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

You’ll be able to feel the drier air when you step outside on Tuesday morning. The lower humidity, combined with sunny skies, should allow highs to push into the upper 80s to 90 degrees, but temperatures will start falling fairly quickly after the sun goes down. Look for overnight lows in the mid-60s again in Houston, with cooler weather further inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

If anything, the flow of drier air should become more pronounced during the second half of the week as Hurricane Ian moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for warm, sunny days in the upper 80s and lows in the 50s (inland) and lower 60s for Houston. Mornings and evenings will be spectacular, y’all.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

By Saturday or Sunday, the onshore flow will probably start to reestablish itself. But at this point I still think we’re going to see sunny days in the upper 80s with at least somewhat drier air. Nighttime temperatures will start to warm, but should remain in the 60s. Highs next week probably climb back to around 90 degrees. I know we could really use some rainfall, but there appears to be precious little of that in the cards for the next 10 days or so.

Hurricane Ian

Ian continues to organize this morning, and has become a hurricane. This is the Atlantic season’s fourth hurricane and confidence is high that it will cross Cuba tomorrow and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday it should be approaching the Tampa area on the West coast of Florida, where it could bring historic wind and storm surge damage. However after Wednesday there is considerable uncertainty about whether Ian will plow into Tampa Bay, move more or less due north up the West coast of Florida, or remain 50 or 100 miles offshore while turning north for the Big Bend region of Florida.

I’ve been tracking the potential impacts on NASA’s Artemis I mission closely. The large Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft remain on the launch pad at Kennedy Space Center, on the east coast of the state. At least minor impacts are likely, and Ian’s effects could become more direct. As of this morning, the probability of tropical storm force winds at the space center are 60 percent, with an 8 percent chance of hurricane-force winds. They could arrive as early as Wednesday. NASA officials are meeting at 11am CT today to decide whether to roll the Artemis I mission back inside the Vehicle Assembly Building to protect the vehicle.

Good Sunday to you. With the potential of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 3 days, we just want to post to reassure our Houston readers that this storm will not impact Texas and offer an update for our neighbors to the east.

Just to reemphasize, for Houston, we are in fine shape. The window of impacts from Ian has likely narrowed from east of New Orleans through most of Florida.

As of Sunday morning, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft traversing the storm are not finding anything super noteworthy this morning. Ian remains a tropical storm trying to organize itself. The satellite picture is less than overwhelming.

That said, with a generally favorable environment surrounding it, Ian should be able to rapidly intensify at some point in the next 36 hours. If Ian continues to struggle some into tomorrow, the odds of that drop but by no means does the lack of organization indicate much about the long term peak of Ian at this point. Rapid intensification happens…rapidly. Despite the raggedness at the moment, Ian is still likely to become a major hurricane as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

What will impact Ian’s intensity at landfall is exactly where it tracks. If the storm turns right faster and plows into Fort Myers through Tampa, Ian will likely be near peak intensity as it does so, a really bad situation. If the storm heads more north toward the Big Bend or Apalachicola Bay, the storm should be a bit under peak intensity as it comes ashore. If the storm goes farther west toward Pensacola or Mobile, the hope would be that Ian would weaken even a bit faster. Why? Wind shear. That being said, if a more northerly/westerly track does occur, Ian will be expanding in physical size, meaning a larger wind field. While this wouldn’t be quite the same as another “I” storm we are familiar with (Ike, which also weakened on approach to landfall), the idea would be the same for Florida: A very strong, powerful storm increasing in size but weakening at landfall can still produce very damaging impacts, and whatever the “category” of the storm, folks in Florida should be taking this seriously.

So where will Ian go? That’s the million dollar question, and I have to say, the forecast track of Ian is fairly complicated this close to impact time. The National Hurricane Center outlook shows Ian coming in somewhere between roughly Fort Myers and Pensacola.

This is as good a forecast as any in my personal opinion, and I think it correctly splits the risks down the middle. If we look at a more complicated map of what we call a “super ensemble” of a bunch of different ensemble models, you get a very similar looking cone.

We use this approach to get a better sense of risk and/or consensus within the modeling itself. There are quite clearly two camps it seems; one that brings Ian near Tampa and another toward the Panhandle. But there is ample potential in between too. So this is another instance in which you have to look at the entire cone as being at risk versus just a point on a map. Hopefully we can narrow this further as today goes on so folks can begin to prepare adequately.

For now, if you know anyone in Florida or visiting Florida, they should be ready to act sooner than later. Impacts would hit southwest Florida by Wednesday or the Panhandle by later Thursday depending on the track.

As far as the Artemis I mission goes, the decision to delay the launch happened yesterday, and according to NASA, they will decide tonight on whether or not to rollback. Very difficult and consequential decisions here. Increasingly, the length of time needed to adequately prepare for storms and issue directives is longer than what is realistically possible from a weather prediction scenario, particularly when it comes to Gulf systems. This is another reason why hurricane preparedness plans are so important. You’ll almost always have less time than you think.

We’ll have another update on Ian tomorrow, as well as an update on the rest of our Houston area forecast. We are still on track for a cold front tomorrow that will usher in cooler and more comfortable weather probably through the weekend! Daytime highs will still be hot, near 90 or well into the 80s most days, but the humidity will be low, allowing for nighttime temperatures in the 60s and perhaps 50s inland. More tomorrow!

Please note: Tropical Storm Ian is highly unlikely to have direct impacts on Texas, aside from some coastal swells later next week. In fact, a reasonably strong cold front remains on track for Houston on Monday, bringing cooler and much drier air—dewpoints in the upper 40s, anyone?—into the region for most of next week. However, we continue to get questions about Ian, and with NASA’s Artemis I mission on the launch pad in Florida I thought it prudent to offer an updated forecast on the storm.

What we know

As of late Saturday morning, Tropical Storm Ian still has not developed a well defined center of circulation and has a vertical structure that is tilted. This means the storm is still struggling to get organized. However that could soon change, as wind shear near Ian lessens and the storm passes over very warm waters in the Caribbean Sea. Our best way to measure this is through a variable known as “tropical cyclone heat potential,” which measures not just the sea surface temperature, but the depth of this warm water, which is important as a tropical system churns up water from below. A value above 80 is conducive for intensification. With values of 100 to 120 in Ian’s path, the storm is poised for rapid intensification during the next two days if it can align its inner core. Most likely, Ian will be a hurricane on Monday as it approaches Cuba.

We also are fairly confident in Ian’s track through Monday, as it should pass to the south of Jamaica and then turn northwest toward the western edge of Cuba. It should then emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night or Tuesday morning. At this point I think it will probably be far enough west of the Florida Keys to spare those islands the worst effects, but I am not prepared to guarantee that.

What we don’t know

Unfortunately, after Monday night there is a lot of uncertainty in the track forecast for Hurricane Ian. One of the reasons for this is because the center, as yet, lacks definition. The models are struggling with its starting point, and this leads to wide variances in its position three to five days from now. However, there has been a clear trend during the last 24 hours in which Ian’s track has gradually shifted west, such that the National Hurricane Center’s best track (at 10am CT Saturday) lies on the eastern side of the model guidance.

It remains plausible that Ian could make a landfall anywhere from southwestern Florida to southeastern Louisiana next week, and these regions should absolutely remain vigilant. But at this time the most likely location is somewhere between Destin and Tampa, Florida. Until the center is better defined, and the models are more coherent, great uncertainty will remain. This situation should get better during the next 24 hours assuming that Ian’s structure improves, and the forecast models ingest data being gathered by NOAA aircraft flying in the storm’s vicinity today.

As for the Artemis I mission, NASA has canceled a planned launch attempt on Tuesday, September 27. It has also delayed a decision on whether to roll the rocket back into the Vehicle Assembly Building (where it could safely ride out a hurricane) until Sunday. This is prudent, given Ian’s slower movement. At this point I think there’s a pretty decent chance that it will be safe for the rocket to remain on the launch pad, preserving a launch opportunity on October 1 or 2. The forecast should be clearer by Sunday, when NASA aims to make this roll back decision.

Autumn. August. Both are basically the same, right? We hit 98 degrees officially in Houston yesterday, our hottest late September day since 2005. We have a shot at meeting or exceeding that level again today and maybe again on Monday before we can hopefully be done with this level of ridiculous heat.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L became Tropical Depression 9 in the Caribbean overnight. It should not impact Texas, but it will likely be an issue for Florida or the eastern Gulf. More on that below.

Today

More of the same. Highs likely just shy of 100 with sunshine. Watch for poor air quality (high ozone), in addition to high levels of <ah choo!> ragweed.

Weekend

Temperatures may crawl back a couple degrees this weekend, but that’s because humidity levels may increase just a bit. All else equal, it will continue to feel more like summer than fall: Mid-90s by day, mid-70s by night. A shower can’t be entirely ruled out, especially Sunday, but you’d be lucky if you saw one.

Monday

This may be the trickiest day of the forecast. We are expecting a cold front to descend on southeast Texas on Monday. Air masses tend to be at their hottest immediately before a front passes through. In addition, this front will come with little moisture and minimal rain chances. With humidity likely falling through the day on Monday, we will have a much easier time heating up, assuming sunshine. I would not be shocked to see some places blow past 98 or 99 degrees Monday afternoon.

Current forecast highs are hot, but I think there’s some chance we end up beating some of these numbers.

Tuesday & beyond

The rest of next week looks nice by September standards in Houston. We should see low humidity, allowing nighttime lows to drop into the mid or lower 60s away from the Gulf and bays. Inland locations even have a shot at 50s!

Daytimes will remain fairly hot, but not nearly to the levels we’ve seen lately and with much more tolerable humidity. In other words, the shade and a breeze should offer to provide sweet relief from heat. Look for upper-80s to 90 or so each day. Rain chances seem close to zero all of next week.

Tropics

So now we’ll discuss the tropics. Again, we do not expect that Tropical Depression 9 will impact Houston or Texas at all. So what will it do?

This morning, TD9 is located just off the coast of Venezuela. It finally pushed away from land and more out into the water yesterday, which has allowed it to organize.

Granted, it doesn’t look great on the satellite image above. There is still a lot of wind shear in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, which is impacting TD9’s growth. It will initially be slow. As TD9 works west, it should emerge from that shear into a more stable environment, and that’s when we may see it intensify more rapidly.

TD9 is expected to work just north of west over the next couple days, but it will eventually likely feel the impacts of our cold front and resultant trough over the Eastern U.S. by early next week. This will allow the storm to turn northwest and eventually north and probably northeast as well in time. Thus, the track forecast for Nine shows it threatening Florida in time.

Given the geography of Florida and the Caribbean and the turn expected from TD9, there are many, many questions on intensity and impacts. If the turn happens earlier than forecast, that could lead to more land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba’s eastern mountains, which could keep the system a bit disheveled and also allow it to track east of Florida. If the turn is slower, this could give TD9 more time over the Caribbean rocket fuel (mostly normal for this time of year), allow it to strengthen more, and produce less hostile land interaction. Thus it would be a bigger threat to the Florida Peninsula. If the turn is much slower than forecast, then odds increase for the Panhandle or Mississippi/Alabama coasts. All options are reasonable right now, but consensus favors something near the current NHC track.

Given the general interest in this system, as well as the potential impacts to the planned Artemis I launch in Florida next week, Eric and I will keep you updated on this storm through the weekend.

One last note. We’re obviously watching TD9 closely, but Fiona is still out there, and it is about to absolutely hammer Atlantic Canada. Much of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland are under hurricane warnings. Tropical storm conditions are even expected as far north as Labrador. This will likely be a generational storm for Nova Scotia. This area often experiences large storms, but this will be at another level and perhaps worse than Juan in 2003.

Thoughts with our Canadian friends through a pretty trying event.