Good morning. After scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, the potential for more organized storms returns to Houston this week, especially areas north of Interstate 10. Most of the region will see 1 to 4 inches of rain through Friday, although isolated areas beneath the heaviest storms could see 6 or more inches. Please note that we’re not looking at continuous rainfall this week, by any means. Monday, in particular, should see a fair bit of sun.

These rains, which will likely reach their maximum coverage on Wednesday, are due to a very moist atmosphere and a series of disturbances in the atmosphere. The overall pattern will support slow-moving storms, which is a concern due to the potential for high rainfall rates. At this time we’re not expecting significant or widespread flooding in the greater Houston area, however stronger and slow-moving storms will likely flood some roadways this week.

Monday

Showers today will be fairly scattered in nature, and due to at least partly sunny skies I think we’ll see a warm day with high temperatures pushing into the mid-90s for much of the area. Rain chances are likely about 40 percent for much of the day. However, late this afternoon or evening we should see a line of storms moving through our northern areas, such as Montgomery and Walker counties, in association with a boundary. This line of storms should steadily weaken, before (probably) dying around around Interstate 10. Things should quiet down overnight.

Tuesday

The potential for more widespread rainfall increases on Tuesday, with coverage of 50 to 60 percent of the area. Chances will be highest north of Interstate 10, in places such as Montgomery County. With more clouds, expect highs to peak around 90 degrees.

Wednesday

This is the day we expect the most widespread rain in the metro area, with chances of around 80 percent. We still don’t have great confidence in the timing of storms on Wednesday, but should be able to offer some better guidance in tomorrow’s post. Highs for most of the area should remain in the upper 80s.

Thursday and Friday

As the atmosphere starts to dry out some, rain chances should fall back to around 50 percent or so to end the work week. Look for highs of around 90 degrees, with partly sunny skies.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

I think the pattern will revert to more typical conditions for late summer this weekend, with partly to possibly mostly sunny skies, and highs climbing back into the low 90s. Rain chances are not zero, but likely will not be higher than 30 percent, or so, and will be driven by the afternoon sea breeze. If you were expecting us to fall into a high-pressure dominated hot weather pattern next week, don’t. All indications are we’re going to see healthy rain chances through the end of the month, with moderate highs in the low 90s.

Tropics

We are now officially in the heart of hurricane season for Texas, and the entire Atlantic basin. For us, this period runs for about the next six weeks, when the state is most vulnerable to hurricanes, and the Gulf of Mexico at its warmest to support them. So far, it has been a quiet year in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measurement of the duration and intensity of tropical systems. The Atlantic basin has seen just 13 percent of its average cyclone energy through this week, according to hurricane scientist Brian McNoldy.

The tropics are waking up, however. A tropical wave that recently moved off of Africa has a chance of developing this week as it traverses the Atlantic, although it will have to combat a fair amount of dry air over the next several days so it may dissipate. Behind this wave there are more, so we should expect to see activity continue to tick up. But the good news is that the season is slower than anticipated so far, and there’s no reason to think any of these systems are going to track near the Gulf of Mexico any time soon.

Good morning. I’m jumping in with a quick weekend update due to the ongoing wet pattern. We don’t have any concerns about significant, widespread flooding right now. However, these storms will bear a lot of moisture, and some will produce high rainfall rates that can quickly lead to flash flooding in Houston’s streets. This is a concern for today, and for the next week or so.

In terms of the overall picture, after a torrid start to summer Houston is in the midst of a stark pattern change due to an unsettled atmosphere that is producing lots of clouds, cooler daytime temperatures, and widespread showers. How about this for a stark contrast? Friday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was just 77 degrees (a record low maximum temperature for August 19). The region has not recorded a daily high that low since April 19. This pattern is likely to hold through most of next week, although daytime highs will not be that cool.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to see rainfall on both weekend days across much of the region, probably with 60 or 70 percent coverage, and the best chances coming between about 10 am and 6 pm CT on both days with daytime heating. Accumulations will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for most, but a handful of locations could see 2, 3 or even more inches of rain beneath the heaviest storms that will have high rainfall rates. Otherwise, expect high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Next week

The pattern, if anything, turns wetter during the coming week for Houston and much of Texas as high pressure is gone and the state sees a series of atmospheric disturbances pass through. The best chance of rain will come for parts of north and east Texas, where upwards of 10 inches is possible through Friday. This is almost certainly going to cause flooding issues for parts of the Dallas metro area over to places like Texarkana. Closer to home, I think much of the area will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rain from Monday through Friday of next week. Highs most days will be in the mid- to upper-80s. These days will be partly to mostly cloudy, with limited chances for sunshine until Friday most likely.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four,” and it should move into the northern coast of Mexico, and South Texas, during the next 24 hours. Whether it organizes sufficiently before then to become a tropical depression or storm is largely moot, as it is principally a rainmaker, likely to bring several inches of rain to those areas. The Upper Texas coast may see some ancillary moisture from this system that will support rain on Sunday or Monday, but we don’t see any serious, direct effects.

As Eric has been alluding to all week, things have now changed, and they will continue to do so in a big way for not just Houston but all of Texas. Last evening’s rowdy (and in some cases damaging) storms were the first phase in what will be a much different weather pattern for the rest of the month. The Texas-wide drought is on notice for what should be significant relief.

Today

We’re starting the morning off with some noisy storms south of Houston. The storms are generally moving east, but the overall trend seems to be to build storms back to the north some. None are severe at this point, but there are some special marine warnings on the coast due to 35 to 45 mph wind gusts, or a bit stronger, as well as the potential for waterspouts.

As the day goes on, storms should continue expanding northward and inland. Locally heavy rain is again possible today. Thus far, rates are fairly manageable, but a few spots may need to be watched today for some street flooding. Most of Southeast Texas has been outlined in a marginal (Level 2/4) risk for flash flooding today. As a precaution, we are going to issue a Stage 1 Flood Alert, based on the SCW Flood Scale.

Street flooding is possible anywhere in the area today, but I would watch areas west of Houston that saw 2 to 3 inches of rain yesterday, as well as areas south of Houston, where the heaviest rain is right now. Yes, this is welcome rain to be sure, but some nuisance street flooding feels possible today, especially through early afternoon.

Storms should calm down by evening. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down today. Highs should only be in the 80s, though if you see sunshine in your location, you could pop above 90, especially north and west of Houston.

Invest 99L & weekend

The weekend forecast will be hit and miss for most folks. At this point, I think both Saturday and Sunday carry a good chance of at least scattered showers or storms, near the coast in the morning, expanding inland during the afternoon. Locally heavy rain is possible, but widespread heavy rain seems unlikely this weekend. Both days should see some sunshine, which will allow us to punch back into the 90s in most spots, with morning lows in the 70s.

Regarding the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight the potential for now-classified Invest 99L to become a tropical depression or storm over the next 24 hours before moving inland over Mexico on Saturday.

This should have no direct impact on our weather in the Houston area, but it’s possible that some heavier rains get close to South Texas later in the weekend or early next week.

Next week

I am not going to even try to pin down the specifics of any day next week. What we know is that there will be rain chances every day. Some of the rain could be heavy. Parts of the state are going to see a lot of rain (see below), probably to the north or northwest of the Houston area. Daytime highs will flirt with 90 every day, but days that see more widespread showers or storms will probably stay in the 80s. Humidity will stay high, so nighttime lows well into the 70s are still likely.

Rain totals

So just how much rain will Texas see over the next week or so? The answer is a lot. The current NWS outlook for rainfall across Texas is below and shows as much as 7 to 8 inches in interior Texas, including the DFW area and possibly the Austin and San Antonio areas as well. Higher amounts are possible, as is flooding across the state.

While the Houston area should see a bit less than other parts of the state, there’s still enough uncertainty in the forecast to think we have a chance at higher amounts, especially north and west of the city. Whatever the specifics, this is a big, big drought denter for the entire state of Texas. We’ll keep you posted as needed over the next few days.

Good morning. It has been a long, hot—so very, very hot—summer in Houston. June and July were the warmest on record for the city, and so far August has run slightly above normal. But that’s now about to change. The arrival of a weak front later today will kick off a significant pattern change that will bring temperatures generally in the low 90s, with a decent chance of rain, for at least the next week. I would go so far as to say that, after today, it is possible if not probable that the metro area may not record another 100-degree day in 2022. The rest of August really does look quite reasonable, and then we’ll have to see about September.

Thursday

The watchword for today is uncertainty. We have boundaries between air masses all over the place, plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with, and a weak front that will be advancing southward later today. We can’t have complete confidence in the specifics about how this will play out, but here’s what we can say more generally about the forecast. Today will be another hot one, with much of the region at least reaching the upper 90s this afternoon. I think the radar will remain pretty quiet until 2 or 3 pm, after which time we should start to see showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the region. The preferred area will be north of Interstate 10, but areas closer to the coast probably won’t miss out entirely. Storms should become more widespread late this afternoon and evening, before weakening overnight.

What should your expectations be? As is usual with thunderstorms, there probably will be plenty of lightning, and some stronger winds in the stronger thunderstorms. Much of the region will pick up 0.25 to 2 inches of rain through tonight, although lower accumulations are possible right along the coast. Street flooding is possible within the stronger thunderstorms.

Friday

Rain chances Friday will depend to some extent on what happens Thursday, but a healthy chance of showers remains. I don’t think storms will match the intensity of Thursday’s, but we’ll have to see. Look for highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies for much of the area. If you were expecting the front to bring cooler nighttime temperatures, you should temper your expectations. We’re not going to see much of a change in humidity or lows. It’s mid-August, y’all, and summertime fronts just don’t pack that kind of punch this far south.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same for this weekend, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. Rain chances each day will be about 50 percent, but for the most part these should be showers that pass through fairly quickly (see caveat, in the Tropics section below).

Next week

Every time we’ve seen a bit of a reprieve this summer from deep heat, high pressure has pretty quickly built back over the region. However, we don’t expect that to happen this time. Instead, the upper Texas coast will fall between a ridge to our west, and low pressure to our east. As a result we should see a string of partly to mostly cloudy days with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Each day should have a healthy chance of rain in the 30 to 50 percent range, but it’s way too early to have much confidence in any details. This pattern should hold for awhile. Pretty great for late August, right?

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to track the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming in the Southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. Chances remain fairly low for this system to become a tropical depression or storm. As for local effects, this disturbance could increase our region’s rain chances on Sunday and Monday, but it’s just too early to tell. For now, I’m leaning toward the idea that it won’t have much of an impact.