The weather this week is fairly straightforward, so we won’t be wasting too much of your time or ours. High pressure is building over the area and it will hold sway through the work week. Temperatures should peak by Friday or Saturday, perhaps in the triple digits, before some slight relief potentially arrives later this weekend. We are near the point of the longest days of summer, so you should absolutely be protecting your skin from prolonged sun exposure and taking heat relief measures.

Monday

Highs today will be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are near zero, and the biggest difference from Sunday will be that winds out of the south become a little more pronounced, blowing at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to around 25 mph. Lows on Monday night will be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

See Monday.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The heat starts to peak during the second half of the week as the ridge intensifies. High temperatures will push into the mid- to upper-90s across the region away from the immediate coast. Some areas have a chance of hitting 100 degrees by Friday or Saturday. TL;DR: Hot, hot, hot.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring more of the same, in terms of heat and sunshine. But later on Saturday a weak system may move in from the north to bring some cloud cover, a slight reduction in temperatures, and some slight rain chances. I’d pencil this in for now, however, as this dying cool front may well wash out before reaching Houston.

Tropics

After crossing Florida this past weekend, a tropical system got better organized and developed into Tropical Storm Alex on Sunday. It will pass just north of Bermuda as it moves out to sea and eventually dies. Beyond Alex, there is not really anything to see. A tropical disturbance may spin up in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 7 to 10 days, but for now it’s not something I anticipate affecting Texas weather in any way.

Good morning. You probably didn’t notice it, but a cool front has moved into Houston. This will bring some very, very slight relief today—temperatures and dewpoints may be a few degrees lower than they otherwise would be—but it won’t be much. We’ll have some slight rain chances over the next two days before high pressure takes control and drives our high temperatures into the mid-90s next week.

Friday

Today will be sunny, with highs of around 90 degrees. Winds will actually be out of the north, at 5 to 10 mph, which may be the only sensible way to really detect the aforementioned front. There will be about a 10 to 20 percent chance of rain this afternoon, with the peak of daytime heating. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see highs creep up into the low 90s. We’ll again see sunny skies, with perhaps a 10 to 20 percent chance of rain during the afternoon hours. If that sounds like a low chance, wait until you read the forecast for next week.

Sunday

As high pressure starts to build we’ll see sunny skies, with highs in the low-90s. The difference on Sunday will be that rain chances fall back to 10 percent or less, and winds will start to pick up out of the south and southwest, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph.

Next week

High temperatures should continue in the low-90s before transitioning to the mid-90s as high pressure asserts control. Rain chances will be effectively zero. The pattern might finally start to transition by Friday or Saturday of next week, as high pressure retreats to the west. This will allow for a slight moderation of temperatures, and the return of thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. This is summer in Houston doing summer in Houston things. It beats flooding.

I hope everyone has a safe and joyous and healthy weekend in the abundant sunshine. We’ll be back on Monday with the latest forecast, as well as an announcement early next week that I think some of you will like quite a bit.

Good morning. Houston will enter a classic summertime pattern next week in which high pressure dominates. This will bring sunny skies and plenty of heat as we get deeper into June. But before this happens we’ll have a puncher’s chance of seeing some much needed rain today and Friday as a weak front sags into the region.

Thursday

Today’s rain chances will be driven by an advancing cold front—please understand this is a cold front in a meteorological sense, in that it is a boundary ahead of an advancing mass of air, but as we’re in June the “cold” air behind the front is not particularly cold—colliding with the sea breeze. The potential for rainfall today is probably greatest along and south of Interstate 10, where these boundaries will meet. I think there’s about a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms today for coastal areas, whereas chances are probably in the 30 percent range north of Interstate 10. These will be the kind of storms where some locations will see downpours while a few streets over there will just be menacing looking clouds and a few drops. A lucky few areas may pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, but most of the region that receives rain will see a tenth of an inch or two. Otherwise expect partly sunny skies today, with winds turning northwest, and highs in the low 90s.

Friday

Rain will be possible again on Friday as an upper-level system passing through meets the sea breeze, although I’d put chances at a little bit lower than Thursday. It will be the same kind of situation, with passing downpours. Highs on Friday should reach about 90 degrees, or a bit higher, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and warm, with highs in the low 90s. We can’t entirely rule out a passing shower on Saturday, but the chances are very low. Winds will be fairly light on Saturday, but should start to blow in a more pronounced manner out of the south on Sunday, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph.

Next week

As high pressure settles in next week, we should mostly see days with highs in the low- to mid-90s, partly to mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts. After this Friday, there likely won’t be meaningful rain chances for at least a week. Maybe that starts to change by next weekend? But only maybe. It’s summer, baby.

Tropics

Invest 91L looks to be close to becoming a tropical depression, or even Tropical Storm Alex, later today as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of potential for development, but the storm should bring a lot of rain to the Florida peninsula from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

Good morning. It’s June 1, which marks the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. If you need a refresher on the basics of hurricanes, I spoke with Lisa Gray at City Cast Houston to answer all of her questions about these storms. Despite the likely formation of a tropical system near the Yucatan Peninsula this week, there are no imminent threats to Texas. And as regular readers will be aware, prime time for the Atlantic hurricane season really doesn’t kick off until late July or early August.

Wednesday

Some scattered showers streamed in from the Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday morning, and you probably have about a 20 percent chance of seeing a shower through this afternoon. Any rain that pops up could be briefly heavy, but should dissipate quickly as these showers move from south to north. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies today with high temperatures of about 90 degrees. Winds will be out of the southeast at about 10 mph, with modestly higher gusts. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-70s.

Thursday

A weak (and dying) front will approach the region on Thursday, and probably the most noticeable effect will be an increased chance of rain, up to about 30 or perhaps even 40 percent. Some high resolution models are showing the potential for afternoon thunderstorms along Interstate 10 and down to the coast, where there will be ample moisture. We’ll see about that. Otherwise expect highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the mid-70s for most.

Friday

As the “front” pushes down toward the coast, rain chances will probably be in the 20 to 30 percent range. There won’t be much drier air with the front, and highs will likely still get into the low 90s with partly sunny skies. Winds should briefly shift to come out of the north. Lows Friday night will be the coolest of the week.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend will see mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the low-90s. We can’t entirely rule out a brief, passing shower, but I’d put rain chances at about 10 percent. High pressure starts to take control of our weather through at least the early part of next week, so look for mostly sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-90s, and basically no rain. Pretty soon I’ll probably be quoting Blind Melon lyrics here.

Tropics

The primary area of interest is a low pressure system likely to move into the Caribbean Sea and develop into Tropical Storm Alex later this week. It will almost certainly bring heavy rainfall to the Florida peninsula and the Bahamas this weekend. The other system (yellow) is moving out to sea.