Good morning. A thin line of showers associated with a cool front will move through the region this morning, setting the stage for a breezy afternoon. This will lead to mostly sunny weather for most of the remainder of this week, and a warm weekend.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm and muggy in Houston this morning, with lows only falling into the 70s across much of the region. The front should reach central Houston by late morning, and push off the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. Some showers and and briefly strong thunderstorms may accompany the front’s passage, especially north of Interstate 10, but they will quickly move through. After the front much drier air moves in, and a “red flag” warning is in effect for the area from 1 pm to 7 pm as northwesterly winds gust to 20 or 25 mph. This means that any fires that start will spread quickly, so please take care. Winds will slacken tonight as lows generally drop into the low 50s.

Thursday

A lovely day, with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the upper 70s. Lows should be similar to Wednesday night, albeit a tad warmer.

Friday

Expect another spring-like day, with mostly sunny skies. There will be a bit more humidity as winds turn easterly, however, and lows Friday night will only drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions will be warmer this weekend, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the low 60s. We’ve still got a few questions about the details, but most likely we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies to go along with moderate southerly winds.

Next week

As moisture piles up in our atmosphere, humidity levels will increase further early next week, with highs remaining in the in low- to mid-80s. Nights will start to become muggy again. Rain chances increase on Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the next front, which should arrive on Wednesday or so. This will probably push overnight lows back into the 50s.

Good morning. Today will see very windy conditions as the onshore flow kicks into high gear, and this will set up a frontal passage on Wednesday morning. This front will bring a thin line of rain showers, which may include a few strong thunderstorms. This will set the stage for mostly sunny, and milder weather for the rest of the week.

Tuesday

During the spring we get days like this, when there is higher pressure offshore and a potent low pressure system in the middle of the United States. This effectively sets up a tight pressure gradient and strong onshore winds. Intuitively, to me, these kinds of days feel like summer is trying to force its way back into the area after a few months of mostly cooler and drier weather. Anyway, it will feel like that today, with southerly winds gusting as high as 30 to 35 mph this afternoon and overnight. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs should still get into the low 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s will make it feel fairly humid. Lows tonight may not drop below 70 in parts of Houston.

Wednesday

The aforementioned low pressure system will drive a surface front through the area on Wednesday, likely reaching areas north and west of Houston by around sunrise, reaching the city during the mid-morning hours, and the coast around noon. A line of thin showers and thunderstorms should accompany the front, but overall accumulations will probably only be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. We can’t rule out a few thunderstorms, but by far the better chances for severe weather lie well to our north and east (which you should note if you’re traveling toward Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama). Dry air and clearing skies will see temperatures jump up into the mid-80s, or so, during the afternoon hours before lows drop into the low- to mid-50s overnight.

Thursday

As noted yesterday, Thursday’s weather should be superlative. Look for a high near 80, with sunny skies, light winds, and dry air. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the mid 50s.

Friday

Another nice day, although there will be some clouds perhaps, and humidity levels will start to creep up along with the onshore flow. Highs should again be near 80 degrees.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

A reinforcing cold front should arrive Friday night or Saturday morning, bringing a low chance of rain back into the forecast. However, this should clear out by the afternoon. Look for highs in the low 80s on Saturday with clearing skies, and around 80 degrees on Sunday with sunny skies. More clouds return Monday, with a healthy chance of rain entering the forecast by Tuesday or so of next week.

This weekend a reader reminded me of something we published two years ago—an answer to the question of when would be the best time to plan an outdoor wedding in Houston in anticipation of fair weather. After a bit of research we concluded that, “the best time for outdoor weddings in Houston is the last two weeks of March, during the afternoon or evening hours.” Melanie said she had just had a wonderful wedding, and I must admit these two weekends during the last half of March have been pretty pleasant. Forecasts don’t always work out, but it’s nice when they do. Congratulations Melanie!

Monday

We’ll continue to see warm weather to start the week as a southerly flow persists. Winds today will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. As this happens moisture levels will increase in the atmosphere, and we’ll start to see some clouds in the sky. However, I think enough sunshine will break through to allow high temperatures to reach the low- to mid-80s. Winds will slacken a bit tonight as lows drop into the 60s.

Tuesday

This will be even a windier day as the southerly flow deepens. Gusts out of the south may reach 30 mph or even higher, and this will bring more clouds and warmer air into the region. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies I think highs will again push into the low- to mid-80s. Lows on Tuesday night may drop below 70 for some coastal areas, with sticky dewpoints, and will only be slightly cooler for inland areas.

Wednesday

A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday morning. The timing is still uncertain, but for now I’d peg its passage during the pre-dawn hours for College Station, mid-morning in Houston, and off the coast by or before noon. It looks like a line of storms may form with this front, bringing some briefly heavy thunderstorms and straight-line winds. The overall threat of severe weather looks fairly low, however. Highs Wednesday will likely get into the 80s after the front with sunny skies, but the drier air moving in will allow to drop into the 50s overnight.

Thursday

This should be a super nice day, with highs in the 70s, dry air, and lots of sunshine. Winds look fairly light, as well.

Friday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday, so we’ll probably see some clouds form as highs reach the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Some showers are possibly heading into the weekend, as a modest front moves through. At this point it looks like things will clear out by Saturday morning-ish, allowing for mostly sunny weather from thereafter through the weekend. Highs should be around 80 degrees, give or take, with lows in the upper 50s. Winter is long gone, my friends.

We’ll get to all the sun and sneezes in a minute. First, let’s talk drought again. This week’s rainfall came at a good time. Much of the state saw at least some rainfall from the storm. This led to about 3% of state being removed from drought (and about 25% of the Houston area being removed from drought as well).

We will probably need a storm a week affecting a greater part of Texas to remain with minimal drought concerns and to improve the situation elsewhere in the state. We may see one storm next week, but it looks less widespread and significant than this week’s storm as of today. No one will complain if we can keep the tornadoes away from Texas though.

Weekend

Today, tomorrow, and Sunday look great. Each day will see a little bit of warming, and it will feel solidly like spring. Look for about 80 or so today, and low 80s tomorrow and Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. It will be sunny with low humidity but perhaps just enough to allow for some morning fog in spots. Winds will be light to moderate all weekend, generally about 10 to 15 mph.

This weather will cause two problems, however. The abundant sunshine, combined with local pollution will likely lead to high levels of ozone each day this weekend. Second, as Eric noted yesterday, everything’s blooming, so tree pollen is roofing, as it usually does this time of year. If you suffer from seasonal allergies (Hi, it’s me), it’s probably not getting better anytime soon.

Next week

Monday should just be an extension of the weekend with a good amount of sunshine. But there will be some changes. As a strong storm wraps up in the central Plains, onshore flow will begin to strengthen on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will likely jump to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts at times, especially along the coast.

The next front will cruise through probably on Wednesday with a chance of showers and storms. At this time, it does not look to be too big a deal, but we’ll keep tabs on things. That should usher in another couple days of fair weather to close out March. Ahead of the front, look for temps in the 80s, with lows in the 60s, and noticeably more humidity than the weekend. Behind the front, we’d probably cool into the 70s with lows perhaps in the 50s.