There is no doubt it has been a blessedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Overall activity is running less than half of “normal” for the Atlantic basin this summer, and this is all the more remarkable given that forecasters predicted a significantly busier-than-normal season in 2022.

From a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic basin passed the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10. Typically, during any given year, nearly 50 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes will form between now and the end of October. For Texas, the timeline is still more compressed. Our chances of being struck by a hurricane fall dramatically after about two weeks from now. So we’re close, but we are definitely not there yet.

Two waves

The Atlantic tropics are really quiet for this time of year, with the National Hurricane Center tracking just two tropical waves—these waves are not in the ocean, by the way, but rather are low pressure systems in the atmosphere with the potential to become tropical systems. Each has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next five days. Of these systems, the one we probably need to watch is the closer of the two to the United States.

At present this is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, but it may find reasonably favorable conditions for development later this week. By around Sunday, something could form near Puerto Rico. In fact, there is decent agreement among many of the European model ensemble members in support of a weak system. After that point, who knows? The system might never develop. It might fall apart. It might move into the Gulf of Mexico. Or it might curve northward toward Florida or the Southeastern United States.

The other potential threat during the next 10 days is some sort of development in the Bay of Campeche that may have some pathway to move north in the Gulf of Mexico.

To be clear: Neither of these systems, at this point, appear to pose anything remotely close to a significant threat to Texas. The present quietude of the tropics, at this time of year, is truly a blessing for North America and the Caribbean Sea. But that doesn’t mean it will last, and during the last two or three weeks of prime tropics time for Texas, we do have a couple of things to watch. Hopefully, in two weeks, I’ll be writing a post saying that we’re pretty confident we’re done with hurricane season in Texas.

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Good morning. A much discussed, but rather weak front has pushed through Houston overnight. This will bring a few cooler and drier nights to the region, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, further away from the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. Some decent rain chances return by Thursday or Friday for coastal areas, but for now we expect these to take the form of mostly scattered showers rather than anything organized.

Monday

High temperatures today will reach the lower 90s for most of the metro area, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, generally out of the north, at about 5 mph. Conditions this evening will be pleasant, relative to typical summertime conditions, as dewpoints drop into the mid-60s for most of the region away from the coast. This is not dry air by any means, but it is drier than we’ve been experiencing. Lows Monday night should drop below 70 degrees for inland areas, with low 70s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

Highs will again be in the low 90s on Tuesday, with sunny skies. If anything, the air should be a smidge drier during the daytime and Tuesday night, so expect another pleasant evening across the area, heading into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

The dry air lingers into Wednesday, and this morning has the potential for the lowest temperatures of the week, with lows possibly in the mid-60s for areas well inland. Expect another day with sunny skies, and highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

By later on Wednesday, some time, the onshore flow should reestablish itself, leading to more humid conditions. For coastal areas, this moisture, in concert with the sea breeze, could start to generate some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be significantly less for areas inland of Interstate 10, however. Highs should be in the low 90s for much of the region, with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern will probably persist into the weekend, providing us with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances, overall, look to be fairly low this weekend so plan outdoor activities with confidence—and plenty of bug spray.

Tropics

I’ll have a full roundup of tropical activity in a post later this morning, looking ahead at what to expect for the next week or 10 days as we start to approach the likely end of hurricane season for Texas.

The updated drought monitor report was released yesterday, covering us through this past Tuesday, and it had good news for our area as drought conditions have been significantly ameliorated.

We have gone from 74 percent drought coverage a week ago to 35 percent this week. Most of the area is now drought-free. Of course, it’s not completely gone, and with primarily dry weather expected for another week or more, it stands to reason that we could slip back into a worsening drought situation again this autumn. But for now, we’re doing much, much better. The same is true for much of Texas.

Friday & weekend

The next three days are all going to be variations on the same thing: It will be mainly sunny. You probably will not get rain, but there is at least a slight chance each day that someone will. It will be hot but not extremely so. I do think the next few mornings and evening will be moderately pleasant, much like we’ve seen at times over the last week or so, but the middle of each day should be plenty hot, with highs generally 90 or better away from the coast and mid-90s well inland.

All in all, if you have plans this weekend, you should be in pretty good shape.

Monday through Wednesday

Will it or won’t it? That’s the big question. We have been discussing the chances that a faux fall cold front could push through Sunday night or early next week and provide us with a taste of autumn and somewhat drier air. Models are still roughly 50/50 on whether or not it gets here. This won’t have much moisture or much impact beyond primarily determining whether we see nighttime lows in the 60s over much of the area or continued 70s.

So for now, look for mainly sunshine Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Daytime highs should be in the 90s and nighttime lows generally still in the 70s, but risk for a morning of 60s in there, mainly north of I-10. We will see where we stand on Monday.

Mid to late next week

Whether or not an actual front gets here is somewhat inconsequential to the rest of the forecast next week. Look for sun, clouds, building warm to hot temps again, and more late summer humidity. Rain chances remain on the low-end of the scale for most of the rest of next week.

Tropics

The good news is that the Gulf continues to be free and clear of any tropical activity over the next week or so. Everything is in the Atlantic.

All the systems worth watching in the Atlantic seem likely to stay there for their life cycles, which is surely good news for us. We’re not to the finish line yet, so I’m not quite ready to exhale, but we’re getting closer. For those that follow me on social media, the H-E-B cocoa granola supply remains full. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Good morning. The showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening represented the last gasp of our region’s wet pattern, and we are now moving into a drier period. The region has also passed the worst of summer—what I call “high summer”—and we’re now into “late summer.” This means temperatures will still be warm to hot, but not excruciatingly so, and we can start to look for a few fronts to pass through. The first such front is in the cards for early next week, but unfortunately it is not a particularly strong one.

Thursday

An upper-level low pressure system that helped drive Wednesday’s rainfall has shifted east, so while we will still see a few showers and thunderstorms later today they should be much more scattered in nature. Rain chances will be best, perhaps 20 to 30 percent, along and south of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures of around 90 degrees, plus or minus a degree or two. Winds will be light out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees north of Houston, with temperatures warming the closer one gets to the coast.

Friday

At this point Friday looks a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances probably fall below 20 percent this weekend, so look for mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low 90s on both days. If you have outdoor activities planned, you should be good to go. We’re expecting a weak front the push towards the area later on Sunday, and this boundary will probably move through overnight. At this point it looks like a dry frontal passage, but we’re not 100 percent sure of that.

Next week

Don’t expect a significant cool down behind the front. It’s just not strong enough. However, the front should bring a modicum of drier air, helping to bring nighttime temperatures down a few degrees, especially for inland areas. This slightly drier air will be most noticeable during evenings and mornings. Highs look to remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances may start to creep back into the forecast toward the weekend—or not.

Tropics

I hate to sound like a broken record, but in this case it’s a good thing. While there are two active storms in the Atlantic, neither is a significant threat to landmasses as Hurricane Earl is now expected to pass to the east of Bermuda. Looking across the deep tropics, and the storm-forming region near the coast of Africa, I don’t see anything that is likely to threaten the Gulf of Mexico. Probably our biggest threat, therefore, is a storm forming locally, in the northern Gulf of Mexico from the remains of a front. But again, there’s just no support right now for such a possibility in models. Things just look good, y’all.