Good morning, Houston! We are now at the mid-point of December. In the big picture, the forecast is pretty straightforward. After three very warm days, a front arrives to make for a wet and chilly weekend. This colder pattern persists into the middle of next week. And after that? We start warming and waiting to see if another front makes it through before Christmas Day. If not, then Mele Kalikimaka my friends, as it will feel more like Honolulu in winter than Houston.

Wednesday

Modest southerly winds are helping to mitigate the formation of fog this morning, although there are still a few patchy areas around town. Otherwise, we’re going to see partly sunny conditions today, with highs reaching about 80 degrees, or possibly warmer for inland areas. Those winds will continue from the south throughout the day, possibly gusting as high as 20 mph. Some very light, spotty showers will be possible. But rain chances are less than 20 percent. Overnight lows will be warm, only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Thursday

See Wednesday’s forecast.

Friday

More of the same, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, highs around 80 degrees or a tick warmer, and a pronounced onshore flow of moist air from the Gulf.

Saturday

The timing of the front remains somewhat in question, but most likely it will move through the Houston area between sunrise and around Noon on Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 60s during the afternoon hours, and lows down near 50 in the city overnight with cloudy skies. On and off rain showers will be possible throughout the day, with accumulations averaging an inch, with some areas seeing more, some less.

Sunday

This will be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the upper 50s. Some scattered showers are possible during the daytime and Sunday night, but we’re not looking at anything too heavy. Mostly, it should just be cloudy and cool. Lows Sunday night should get into the upper 40s for Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. Rain chances persist into Monday morning.

Next week

As mentioned, Houston will remain on the cooler and drier side of things through about Wednesday of next week, after which daytime highs are probably going back into the mid-70s, with mild nights. Rain chances, for now, look low next week. So will this pattern persist all the way into Christmas? I still don’t have a definitive answer on that, unfortunately. It all depends on the timing of the next front, which remains uncertain, but now seems a little more likely to arrive just in time for Santa. Yesterday I was predicting a 60 percent chance of no Christmas front, and a 40 percent chance of a front. Today I’m 50-50. One thing is for sure, the probability of snow is the same as that of the Houston Texans making the playoffs.

The weather Houston has experienced this month is very far from normal. Through the first 13 days of the month the average temperature has been 9.7 degrees above normal. If the month ended today, this December would go down as the warmest on record. The month, of course, is not over. But that record remains well within striking distance as the rest of this week will see temperatures soaring 20 degrees warmer than is customary for December. We will see a cooldown this weekend that will last into Christmas week. But will it last into Christmas Day? That’s a big question right now.

Tuesday

If you like fog and humidity and high dewpoints, have we got a December delight for you. Low temperatures this morning have only fallen to about 70 degrees, and as this warm and moist air moves over cooler waters it is creating what’s known as sea fog. This fog is fairly thick in some places, but should erode later this morning. In its wake we’ll see a mostly cloudy day with highs of around 80 degrees. Some rather light, scattered showers will be possible throughout the day. Your chances of seeing rain are probably about 20 percent or less, however. As for tonight, you guessed it. Warm, muggy, and more fog possible.

Wednesday and Thursday

Not much changes as we get into the middle of the week. Probably the only noticeable shift will be winds becoming a bit more pronounced out of the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph. Slight rain chances remain.

Friday

Does significant change come on Friday?

Nope.

Saturday and Sunday

However, change will arrive by the weekend as a front drops down into the region. In terms of timing, my best guess is that the front moves through between sunrise on Saturday and noon. And it’s going to be a wet frontal passage. I don’t think we’re looking at anything extreme, but a line of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will accompany the front. Unfortunately high pressure won’t move in immediately afterward, which means we’re going to see a continuation of moderate rain chances through Sunday night. Overall accumulations are probably about 1 inch of rain for most, give or take.

In terms of temperatures, they’ll drop into the 60s in the wake of the front. Clouds will probably limit lows on Saturday night to about 50 degrees in central Houston. Sunday may peak at about 60 degrees, with scattered showers, and lots of clouds. Lows Sunday night will probably drop into the upper 40s in Houston.

Next week

Skies clear out on Monday and this will lead to sunny days and cooler nights. Monday and Tuesday should both see highs in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. (Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest of the week). After that we start warming up, and if you’re wondering about Christmas weather the question becomes the timing of the next front. If one doesn’t come before the holiday, which seems like the most plausible scenario, then your Christmas Day weather may be something like today. (I know, right?) Right now I’d lean 60-40 in favor of no front, versus the next front to cool things down.

Good morning. After a winter-like weekend, our temperatures will be back on the upswing toward near-record heat this week, with highs of around 80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday. By week’s end another front will arrive, and this should usher in more typically chilly weather for December. What happens after that? Read on below for full details about the Christmas week forecast.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s across the metro area this morning, and we can say goodbye to those after a few hours. Today will generally be mostly cloudy, which will help to limit high temperatures to about 70 degrees. Some very light rainfall, almost mist-like, will be possible later today, but any accumulations should be scant. Winds will be light, shifting to come from the southeast later today. Lows tonight will only drop a few degrees from daytime highs, into the mid-60s for most.

Tuesday

Dewpoints on Tuesday will morning will be about 20 degrees higher than on Monday, and accordingly it’s going to feel pretty muggy outside. Some fog will be possible as a result. As skies clear out some on Tuesday, high temperatures will reach about 80 degrees. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 along the coast, with conditions a few degrees cooler inland. This is about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday

Conditions will be more or less same as on Tuesday, although winds out of the south will be more noticeable, gusting above 20 mph.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern remains more or less the same. On Thursday a front will move into northern Texas and stall. This may provide the impetus for some cloud cover and potentially some showers locally, but in truth I don’t think there will be too much sensible effect on the Houston area weather. There is a stronger front coming, but it probably won’t reach the Houston metro area until Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is mostly going to be wet, gray, and cold. There are still some uncertainties in terms of timing, but at some point between Friday night and noon on Saturday a strong front will blow in. The details are yet to come, but as there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture with which to work, and this front will be bringing a significantly colder air mass into a warm one, rain showers and thunderstorms are definitely possible. Temperatures after the front on Saturday should be in the 60s, with lows likely in the 40s.

The rain probably isn’t going anywhere on Sunday, with a solid 50 percent chance of rain, and highs again probably topping out at about 60 degrees. Lows will again likely be in the upper 40s on Sunday night.

Christmas week outlook

Eventually our atmosphere should settle down, and right now I think this probably will happen on Monday, leading to gradually clearing skies and lowering rain chances. This should set the stage for clear and cool weather through at least Wednesday, with lows solidly in the 40s.

There is no clear guidance in the models about what comes after this, but the most likely scenario is warming trend through next Friday, Christmas Eve, or Saturday, Christmas Day. In this case, I’d guess we’re looking at highs in the 70s with warmish nights for the holiday. Right now there is no strong signal for heavy precipitation around Christmas, nor particularly cold temperatures, so snow is not on the menu. If this sounds un-festive to you, take some hope that there’s a non-trivial chance that another front slides through before Christmas, in which case things would feel more seasonal out. We shall see.

On December 3, 1933 Hobby Airport reached 85°, making it the warmest December day on record, a record that held for 88 years and finally fell yesterday when Hobby topped off at 87°. The City of Houston officially hit 84° on that December 1933 day, a record that stood until December 3, 1995, when Bush Airport hit 85°. Yesterday, for the first time since that 1995 day, Bush Airport hit 85° in December. Yesterday was most likely the warmest December afternoon on record in the Houston area. It’s not impossible to think today could be equally hot.

Today

After watching my Rutgers Scarlet Knights men’s basketball team upend #1 Purdue last night, it was tough to come down from that high. Then I opened the door this morning. We all have opinions about warm weather in winter ranging from “This is amazing” to “I hate everything.” I don’t personally care for it, but alas, here we are. Today will be another scorcher by December standards. We will have a mix of clouds & sun with highs likely in the mid-80s.

Coastal fog has been mitigated some by a breeze overnight. We could see fog attempt to develop in Galveston and coastal locations at any point today though, particularly if winds lighten up some late. A stray shower or some drizzle is also possible today.

Tonight & Saturday

For those sick of the hotter weather, you may bask in the weekend. We will continue quite warm and humid tonight. Temperatures will not go very far, with steady readings in the 70s likely into the early morning hours. The cold front will arrive with authority after 4 A.M. on Saturday in central Houston, an hour or two sooner northwest of the city and an hour or two later southeast. By sunrise, the front will be offshore. Look for temperatures to plunge from the mid-70s into the 50s, where they likely will stay for most of Saturday.

In addition to a change of seasons, this front will come with some showers and storms. Look for a narrow but potentially noisy line of brief storms after 2 or 3 AM on Saturday, ending around sunrise. This will be followed by clouds, along with some light rain or a few showers perhaps. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will accompany all this, just to add to the autumnal ambiance. I don’t expect us to see much sunshine on Saturday until perhaps late in the day.

Sunday

As skies clear out late Saturday evening and winds back down some, temperatures will fall as well. Look for Sunday morning to begin in the low to mid-40s in most places, with some 30s likely outside the city. Sunday itself looks gorgeous. Expect sunshine and highs a bit above 60 degrees.

Next week

The return to autumn or early winter weather will be brief. We warm up a little beginning Monday, with morning lows in the upper-40s and daytime highs in the low-70s under sunshine. Monday actually looks spectacular, although clouds may increase through the afternoon.

By Tuesday, onshore flow will begin to exert more influence. This will warm us and bump back up the humidity. Look for highs well into the 70s and lows in the 60s. More of this on Wednesday and Thursday is expected. Yes, we could hit 80 degrees again one or multiple times into late next week. In addition to all this, the usual suspects that typically accompany these December warm ups (clouds, scattered showers, and fog) will join us again as well.

When will we see another cold front? As of this morning, the Euro has one around Sunday next weekend, while the GFS is more like the Monday or Tuesday the week of Christmas. Keep the shorts handy a little longer.