Good morning, all. Just a quick post today as the forecast has not changed all that much—we’ve got five warm and muggy days before a significant cooldown arrives on the first day of 2022. Speaking of winter heat, how warm has this December been? By the month’s end it will rank not just as Houston’s warmest December in more than 120 years of records, but also among the top 10 warmest Novembers.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with morning lows around 70 degrees rising into the low 80s this afternoon. Winds will be noticeable, out of the south, gusting up to about 20 mph. Yesterday we mentioned the possibility of some scattered, light showers for today, but now I don’t think those will materialize. Temperatures tonight will, again, be very warm for December.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same with continued partly sunny skies. The only noticeable change will be the approach of a moderate cold front from the northwest later on Wednesday, but I don’t think that will make much of a dent for areas east of Katy and south of The Woodlands. If you live in such inland areas, enjoy the briefly drier air and slightly cooler morning on Thursday. Otherwise we’re continuing to look at highs in the low 80s. Each day will carry about a 10 or 20 percent chance of very light showers or misty rainfall. If you’re going to be out and about for New Year’s Eve, the weather will cooperate, with warm temperatures in the 70s, and little to no chance of rain.

New Year’s Day

The year of our Lord 2022 will dawn warm and muggy, just as the previous year ended. Skies should be partly sunny, with highs once again in the low 80s. However at some point during the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours a strong front will sweep through. At this point the front is trending drier, so maybe it will bring just a smidgen of rain with it, and maybe not. But there will be plenty of colder and drier air.

Next week

Sunday will be cold and windy, with highs likely topping out in the 50s. Sunday night will be the coldest of the year—sorry, I couldn’t resist that—with temperatures probably dropping into the 30s for most of Houston. A freeze is possible, and perhaps even likely for at least inland areas. Then begins a slow warmup, with temperatures rebounding into the low 70s by mid-week. Another front may arrive at that point. In other words, it may feel decidedly more winter-like for awhile.

I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend celebrating Christmas and the other holidays that make this such a special time of year. I’m sorry the weather was not particularly festive.

Overall, the forecast is pretty simple. The last week of 2021 is going to be blazing hot for December—we are going to obliterate this month’s temperature record—and then our weather will turn much more winter-like at the start of next year. Read on for full details.

Monday

Light southerly winds have kept the fog mostly at bay this morning, and these winds will at times gust to 15 or 20 mph this afternoon. This is part of an overall southwesterly flow in the atmosphere that will help to keep conditions very warm this week. Highs on Monday will reach the low 80s for most locations despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances are near zero and lows Monday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday

A weak atmospheric disturbance may bring some very light showers to the region on Tuesday, although accumulations should be less than a tenth of an inch. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s. Winds will again be a bit gusty out of the south.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three more warm and partly sunny days, with highs likely reaching the low 80s. A weak front will approach the area on Wednesday from the northwest, and this may briefly drop lows on Thursday morning into the mid-60s with some drier air for locations inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. But this front will likely be gone before you know it.

If you’re planning to be out and about on New Year’s Eve, expect temperatures in the low 70s as the clock counts down to midnight. I’d be concerned about fog, but I think there will be enough wind from the south to preclude that. Rain chances on New Year’s Eve look to be near zero.

First week of 2022

New Year’s Day should see more of the same warm weather, but sometime during the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours a strong front should arrive. Details remain sketchy, but I think at least a little bit of rain is likely with the front, if not some showers and thunderstorms. We’ll see.

What we can be more confident of is that significantly colder and drier air will follow. We’re looking at daytime temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s for a time. Conditions will be windy and cold. It even seems possible that inland areas may see the season’s first freeze by around the morning of Monday, January 3, but again it’s way too early to put any precision to such temperature forecasts.

If the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days for Bush Airport comes to fruition, it will be the second warmest 7-day period of weather during the winter months (December-February) on record for the city of Houston, exceeded only by a stretch in late February 1996. The forecast 74° average temperature over the next week would beat the previous December 24-30 record from 2016 by four full degrees. Basically, we’re heading into unprecedented territory for late December. The 5 day temperature anomaly forecast for the US and Canada is quite extreme. As warm as it is here is almost as cold as it’s going to be in, say, Calgary or Edmonton.

So, the forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Warm.

Today

You should be clear if you’re traveling anywhere today. Look for a mix of sun and clouds. It will be noticeably breezy today, with a steady south wind around 10 to 15 mph, a bit stronger over the water. Today’s record highs for Bush and Hobby are both 82°, set in different years (1955 and 1948 respectively). We’ll at least make an attempt to get there.

Christmas Day

I’m guessing Santa may tell his reindeer to come back to the Houston area when they wrap up their work on Christmas Eve, because tomorrow’s weather would warm the heart of anyone living at the North Pole. Look for more of the same: Sun, some clouds, a breeze, and temps warming from the 60s into the 80s. Santa can park himself somewhere on the Island and down a taco and margarita, or two.

The number to beat in Galveston is 76, and 83 is the record in Houston at both Hobby and Bush tomorrow. I think Galveston’s record will fall. Houston will be close, but given how this month has played out, I think we’ll have our warmest Christmas on record. We’ll see.

Sunday & Monday

See above. Maybe Santa can extend his stay. Hit up Kemah? The Texans are home this weekend. Maybe the roof will be open, though it might be too warm for that.

Rest of next week

So, let’s get serious for a second: When is the next cold front? Model support for one doesn’t real increase until next weekend as it stands right now. So for those of you who actually like colder season weather, I sincerely apologize. For those of you that love this, it’s your time to shine. Look for more 60s by night and 80s by day through Friday, possibly Saturday as well. Shower chances creep back in, but the models are quite unenthused about how much rain may occur through next Thursday or Friday.

Low clouds and fog should also return next week. But through Friday, I see nothing too noteworthy in terms of weather impacts outside of occasional fog and warm temperatures.

We’ll have more on Monday. Meanwhile, I’ll echo Eric’s sentiments from yesterday. I hope you have a wonderful, safe, and most importantly, healthy Christmas and holiday season. We are, as always, grateful and thankful for your support. Stay cool this weekend.

For nearly all of Houston, this will be our final morning in the 50s for the year 2021. And overall, the forecast remains much the same as we’ve been discussing for awhile. After emerging from this recent cold spell, Houston will spring back into very warm conditions for the remainder of 2021, with mostly sunny skies and rain chances near zero until the New Year. A strong front at that time seems likely.

Finally, before getting on with the forecast, please let me wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and other seasons greetings during this holiday period. It really is our pleasure to have so many delightful readers.

Thursday

Basically, high pressure will hold sway over our weather for much of the remainder of the year, drawing in a southerly flow and warming our temperatures, while tamping down rain chances. Highs today will reach the mid- to upper-70s beneath mostly sunny skies, and although it won’t exactly feel “dry” out, this should be the driest air left to us this year. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph today, with overnight lows dropping into the low 60s in Houston.

Friday

Christmas Eve will see highs around 80 degrees, with moderately gusty southerly winds, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast.

Christmas Day

The record high temperature for Christmas Day in Houston is 83 degrees, set in 2015. I think we have a good chance of matching or even beating the record high, and if we do it probably won’t be the last heat record we set for 2021. The good news is that skies should be mostly sunny. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 60s.

Sunday and beyond

Really, next week will just bring more of the same. Expect highs around 80 degrees with low temperatures in the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees. Humidity will be high, but not oppressively so. The only noticeable change is that our mostly sunny days this week may become more partly sunny next week. Rain chances remain virtually zero well into next week. While the timing of our next real cold front—we are supposed to be smack dab in the middle of winter after all—remains fuzzy, I’d pencil it in for around New Year’s Day.