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Temperatures have generally dropped into the upper 50s this morning in the wake of a cool front. A warmup will begin Wednesday, and we’ll see a pair of warmer days in the middle of the week before another cooldown ahead of next weekend. Unfortunately the forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday still looks messy, with widespread showers likely due to an abundance of atmospheric moisture. Read on for full details.

Monday

Skies will be partly sunny today as winds blowing at about 10 mph continue to bring in drier northerly air. This will cap highs at about 70 degrees and set the stage for a chilly night. lows should drop into the 40s for most of the region except for the urban core of Houston and coastal areas.

Tuesday

This will be a fine, fine day with highs of around 70 degrees, sunny skies, and light winds turning southerly. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be about 10 degrees warmer due to the onshore flow resuming, but there will still be a slight chill in the air.

Wednesday

Conditions will be warmer and somewhat muggier on Wednesday with an entrenched southerly flow. Even so, highs will likely only top out in the upper 70s. (If the high temperature does reach 80 degrees, I think it will be our region’s last 80-degree day for awhile). Although we’ll see more clouds on Wednesday, I think rains should hold off until at least late Wednesday night. Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 60s. If you’re traveling in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday, it looks like there will be few problem spots across the country.

Thanksgiving Day

There’s going to be a grand total of one messy day this week, weather-wise, and wouldn’t you know it’s going to be on the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will start off warm, and will likely rise into the mid-70s. Right now there are still some questions about timing, but it appears likely that the majority of our region will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall between sunrise and sunset on Thanksgiving, with showers and thunderstorms progressing from northwest to southeast across Houston. The majority of the rain should be offshore by Thursday evening, with colder and drier air moving in behind. Lows on Thursday night should drop to around 50 degrees, so bring a sweater if you’re going Black Friday shopping.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday should be mostly sunny and cooler, with highs in the 60s, and Friday night should be chilly, in the 40s area-wide. Unfortunately we’re not entirely sure what to expect this weekend. Highs probably will be in the 60s, but there is the potential for an atmospheric disturbance or two to rotate through. For now I’m rolling with a 30 percent chance of rain each day, but we’ll have to fine-tune that as we go along.

If you’re interested, Maria and I will be discussing the Thanksgiving weather in a little bit greater depth this morning at 9 am in a Facebook live.

Though this weekend will be a little more mixed than the previous three, it will likely go into the record books as a win when all is said and done. Our roller coaster of cold fronts will continue into next week, with Thanksgiving still a little uncertain. More on that below.

Today & Saturday

Chilly temperatures are back this morning as the drier, cooler air settles in overhead.

Look for a lovely day today with sunshine and highs in the 60s. Tomorrow will begin a couple degrees milder than today, but still cool with 40s and 50s for most folks. Sunshine will dominate the day, with temperatures bouncing back into the lower 70s across the area.

Sunday

Our winds shift back onshore Sunday out ahead of the next front. We’ll see humidity increase a bit, along with clouds and temperatures. We should manage to see 50s and 60s in the morning warming well into the 70s in the afternoon. Some 80 degree weather is possible Sunday with enough sunshine. It won’t be oppressively humid by any means, but you’ll certainly notice the difference from Saturday.

The cold front itself will likely pass the region late in the afternoon or evening. Much like yesterday’s front, it does look to lack a little punch, so any showers or storms would likely be isolated at worst. Still, if you have some late afternoon outdoor plans on Sunday just be aware that it could rain for a brief time.

Monday & Tuesday

Behind Sunday’s front, we’ll get to experience much of the same weather we’ve had behind other fronts this month: Look for sunshine on Monday and Tuesday. The air mass behind this front looks just a little colder than the current one, so I would expect more low to mid-40s in the area, with a few 30s peppered in for outlying, rural spots or the usual chilly spots like Conroe, particularly on Tuesday morning. Daytime highs will be stuck in the 60s.

Wednesday

For those traveling Wednesday, there should be no serious issues across Texas or Louisiana. For those flying out Wednesday, the only real issues might be in the Northeast, as gusty winds linger behind a coastal storm up that way. So Boston, NYC, and Philly might see some delays. But the weather will be clearing out up there on Wednesday. A weak system in the Rockies may produce some generally light higher elevation snow.

For Houston, it looks fine with more sun, a few more clouds and warmer weather. Highs will be in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day & Friday

The weather picture gets more interesting on Thanksgiving and Friday. It’s still early to have high confidence in any specifics, but as of right now I think the first half of Thanksgiving will be fine. So if you’re gearing up for the Turkey Trot, the weather itself should be fine. For now. It will be a bit warm and muggy though with temperatures in the 60s and building humidity.

From there, the picture muddies. A relatively strong storm is expected to develop in Texas and push a cold front through either Thursday night or Friday morning. It’s far too early to get too cute with details, but this does have the potential to produce some strong storms, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, followed by much cooler weather into next weekend. No freezes or anything like that, but noticeably colder. We should get more clarity on this by Monday. But for those of you traveling across Texas on Thursday, be aware that this may factor into your plans.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment in thanking you all for your support during our annual fundraiser. You have two weeks left to get your order in for shirts, hats, umbrellas, or tumblers, or just make a contribution to the site! We can’t thank you enough.

A cold front is moving through Houston this morning, and should push off the coast within about an hour of sunrise. For those who like fall weather in Houston this is a good thing—the high temperature at Hobby Airport reached 87 degrees on Wednesday, setting a record for the location. Bush International Airport, Galveston, and College Station narrowly missed setting records. But now that’s passed, with cooler and fairer weather ahead.

Thursday

As anticipated, this morning’s frontal passage has largely been a dry affair. Drier air will move in today on winds of 10 to 15 mph from the north and northwest. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the early afternoon, helping to limit highs to about 70 degrees, but there should be some clearing later today. Skies tonight will be partly cloudy allowing lows to drop into the upper 40s, with cooler temperatures inland, and slightly warmer ones right along the coast.

I mentioned the possibility of clouds tonight as there is a partial lunar eclipse that runs from about midnight to 6 am, with a peak at 3:02 am CT locally. At that time Earth’s shadow will darken 97 percent of the Moon’s surface. The bottom line is that there should be enough breaks in the clouds to see the eclipse if you’re up late tonight, or early on Friday.

Friday

This will be a splendid late fall day, with light northerly winds and highs in the mid-60s. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows will probably be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend has no weather concerns. After the cool start, temperatures will warm into the mid-70s with partly to mostly sunny skies. As winds shift to come from the south, lows on Saturday night will only drop into the 60s for most of the region.

Sunday

This day should see a few more clouds, and more humidity, as highs push into the upper 70s to 80 degrees. It now appears as though another front will move through on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could bring at least a broken line of showers with it. Any rain accumulations should be fairly light, however. Lows overnight should drop into the 50s, with drier air moving in.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look clear and cool next week, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Unfortunately, we’re still anticipating a messy pattern during the middle of next week, with the passage of a cold front later on Wednesday or on Thanksgiving Day. With fairly high atmospheric moisture levels, I expect to see some rainfall along with, and possibly after the passage of this front. As we’re still a week out I don’t have too much confidence in the details, but showers and thunderstorms certainly seem like a distinct possibility at some point on Thanksgiving. Conditions will be warm ahead of the front, with temperatures dropping afterward, and lows in the 40s likely at the end of next week.

Fundraiser

Just a quick word to say that we’re still raising money for 2022 for Space City Weather with our annual fundraiser. You can buy merchandise or simply donate funds for the site. We truly appreciate your generosity.

Houston will see one more warm day before more fall-like conditions return with a cold front arriving early on Thursday. This will bring a significantly drier shot of air into the region on Thursday night and Friday morning, with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s. Mostly sunny and somewhat warmer conditions return for the weekend, with uncertainty ahead for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday

Before we get to the drier air, however, we’ll see fairly muggy conditions today—by November standards at least. Temperatures this morning are only slightly below 70 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies temperatures this afternoon will probably get into the low- or possibly mid-80s for some areas. I’m tempted to say this is the warmest day left in the year, but Sunday may also see highs of about 80 degrees so I’m not going to make any firm predictions. Winds will be fairly light today, generally out of the south. Lows will be sticky again tonight ahead of the front.

Thursday

As for the front, roughly speaking it should reach the College Station area around midnight or shortly thereafter, push into central Houston between 5 and 7 am CT, and reach the coast between 7 and 9 am. Some scattered showers will be possible with the front, but nothing too heavy or lasting too long. Any rains will probably end quickly as drier air moves in. Highs on Thursday should max out in the low 70s, with clearing skies during the afternoon. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday night will be the coldest of the week, so if you’re participating in the Sleep Out event for Covenant House, be sure and have an extra blanket. Lows will likely drop to 50 degrees, or slightly lower, in Houston with winds out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy. Further inland, lows may drop into the low 40s.

Friday

A fine late fall day, with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be generally light. Lows Friday night will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

After a cool start, temperatures on Saturday should climb into the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees, and then Sunday should be warmer with highs of around 80 degrees and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Another front should arrive on Sunday night, probably around midnight but there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Overall rain chances with this front are fairly low, but not zero.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be clear and cooler before a warming trend begins again Wednesday. Then, all eyes are on the next front and its implications for Thanksgiving. We’ve had several questions about outdoor events, such as the Houston Turkey Trot on Thanksgiving morning. Due to the pandemic, many of these activities were put on hiatus last year, but are now returning. So will Mother Nature cooperate?

The big picture is fairly clear: A front will be moving toward our region on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but we still have questions about how quick (or slow) and dry (or wet) its passage will be. At this point I’m thinking we’ll see a slower moving front, making for a gray Thanksgiving Day with a healthy chance of rain. We’re not looking at inches and inches of rain, I don’t think, but there may be enough precipitation to put a damper on outdoor events at some point during the day. After the front moves through things probably will cool down significantly, with lows at least in the 40s. But the colder air may not come until Thanksgiving night or Friday.

Our confidence in such a forecast will, of course, increase in the coming days as we feast upon additional data.

Fundraiser

I want to extend a very, very warm thank you to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser so far. As always, your response has been tremendous. There’s still time to get your t-shirts, umbrellas, caps, tumblers, or to simply donate.