Matt and I are thrilled to share with you that Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner has proclaimed today, June 8, 2021, as Space City Weather Day in Houston, Texas. We’re grateful to Houston City Council Member Abbie Kamin for nominating the site for this recognition, and we thank the mayor and entire city council for this honor.

Why do we care about this? Well, neither Matt nor myself were born in Houston. I arrived here in 1997, and Matt about a decade later. Both of us have made our homes here, begun to raise our families here, and consider Houston our home. We are just so happy to be able give something back to this community that has given so much to us.

Tuesday

With the departure of last week’s rain showers, Houston’s weather is turning warmer and more humid, with dewpoints in the mid- to upper 70s. This means that sticky summer conditions are here to stay. Perhaps it is appropriate, then, that Space City Weather Day will be hot and humid.

Mostly cloudy skies this morning should give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s. There is a slight chance, perhaps about 20 percent, of rain for areas north of Interstate 10. But yeah, probably not. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for some areas.

Wednesday

With high pressure building and a capping inversion in place, rain chances should end completely on Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs likely in the low- to mid-90s. This will herald the arrival of summer proper in Houston. Overnight conditions will again provide little relief.

Thursday and Friday

The story remains the same. As you probably know, summer in Houston beneath a ridge of high pressure means warm weather, sunny skies, and ample humidity. Highs probably will settle somewhere in the low- to mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

We will likely see more of the same this weekend. Saturday, almost certainly, will be sunny and hot. That seems the probable outcome for Sunday as well, although the forecast is made a little uncertain with the potential disruption of our high pressure system and slight chance of showers. However, when we fall under these kinds of sunny and hot summertime patterns they tend to stick around for awhile.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to highlight the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and it seems that some fragment of this tropical energy will eventually track toward the Gulf of Mexico next week. This may spin something up in the Bay of Campeche about a week or 10 days from now, perhaps a tropical depression, but it’s not something we’re overly concerned with for now. Although it may eventually lead to higher rain chances next week, in forecasting terms, this is a long way off and we just can’t say anything more.

Good morning. The threat of widespread, heavy rainfall has ended, and Houston will now enter a much more summer-like pattern. Looking back at last week, the map below shows seven-day rainfall totals, which varied widely across the region. Much of the area saw between 3 and 10 inches of rain, which periodically led to street flooding under the stronger storms. This is more or less the definition of a Stage 1 flood event for us. We’re glad to move beyond it.

Monday

This morning has started out cloudy, but we should see more sunshine as the day goes on, and as a result high temperatures will likely reach about 90 degrees for much of the area. A few scattered, strong storms are possible mainly north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, but they should progress from west to east fairly quickly. Otherwise, it will be breezy, with winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and gusting higher. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As high pressure builds this week, we’ll eventually reach a period of mostly sunny skies. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday the high won’t yet be fully established, so we’ll retain some slight rain chances—perhaps about 20 percent—each day. Otherwise we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with highs of around 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Right now I think both of these days will yield mostly sunny skies and warm summertime temperatures, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances should be low to near-zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for the coming weekend is a bit uncertain as a weak front will drift into Texas, and may make some progress toward our region. At this point I doubt it will have much effect on our temperatures, but it may allow for the development of scattered showers. At this point, I’d bet on hot and sunny this weekend, but I’m far from confident in that outlook. Stay tuned.

Tropics Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season began a week ago, and we’re seeing some suggestions in the global models of potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week. While this certainly seems possible, it is beyond the ability of any model to accurately depict what will happen that far out. My guess would be some sort of tropical depression may move into or form in the southern Gulf of Mexico, rather than anything significantly more organized.

However, it’s that time of year, and we’ll keep an eye on things for you because the Gulf is fairly warm already. In return, we ask that you not bite when someone on social media shares a single run, of a single model, depicting a hurricane in the Gulf ten or more days from now. That kind of information is just not credible and usually intended to stoke fear.

A few days ago we anticipated that the worst of the rains would hit Houston this weekend. However, that no longer is likely to be the case as the biggest threat has begun to shift east of the Houston metro area over Louisiana. Nevertheless, we are going to maintain our Stage 1 flood alert through Sunday, as it will still be possible for localized areas to see heavy rainfall and some brief street flooding this weekend. But to be clear, most of the Houston region will not experience this.

Friday offers a case in point. Whereas most of Houston saw a few drops or perhaps one-tenth of an inch of rain, communities such as Bacliff, San Leon, and Kemah right along the west side of Galveston Bay saw 6 inches or more, which quickly flooded streets and even a few homes. There is the potential for this kind of isolated storm again today. It’s the classic Houston situation, you know? Some areas will see sunshine and dry roads, and a few miles away storms may be training.

The bottom line is that you should keep an umbrella handy this weekend. Rain chances are fairly high across the region, although we expect most of you to receive 1 inch or less through Sunday. We’re increasingly confident the heavy rainfall threat will end by Sunday evening, after which we’ll transition to a more summer-like pattern. Unless this forecast changes dramatically, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

Good morning. It was quite a wet afternoon and evening on Thursday, though outside of a few areas of localized flooding, the rain didn’t cause too much heartburn. Except in Deer Park, where it looks like a microburst (strong, straight-line winds) inflicted some damage in the area around the high school.

Last flag standing! There were three flags flying before the storms hit Deer Park today, but only one withstood the whipping winds, the TEXAS flag! Deer Park PD released this video! #khou11

More on the damage in Deer Park: https://t.co/W2VhqGgx8r pic.twitter.com/8oPorUIiTD

— KHOU 11 News Houston (@KHOU) June 4, 2021

Divergent signature on THOU radar indicative of a possible wet microburst that caused damage at Deer Park High School North Campus earlier this afternoon. VIL values also sharply fell around this time. #houwx #txwx https://t.co/pSZdtTzWJu pic.twitter.com/rzTsfjn54A

— Ian Gunter (@ianswx) June 4, 2021

With continued chances at rain, we will continue to carry our Stage 1 Flood Alert into at least Saturday.

Before we jump into the forecast details, in case you missed it, Space City Weather now as an app available for both Android and Apple users! You can check out Dwight Silverman’s introductory post for more details. And please, if you notice any bugs or issues, shoot us an email at [email protected]. We’ve gotten lots of feedback so far, and we will do our best to address your reports in a timely manner! I just want to personally thank Dwight, Eric, and especially Hussain Abbasi for getting us here. It’s just a really good, clean, functional app, and I’m thrilled we can share it with you all.

Alright, let’s get into this somewhat tricky forecast.

Today

Radar this morning shows that most heavy rain has pushed offshore south and east of Houston. There are some scattered showers, including a few downpours in spots west of Houston.

Storms should get going again along the sea breeze this afternoon, as it pushes inland from the Gulf. There’s a certain degree of randomness to these things. Yesterday’s rain began on the sea breeze and then transitioned to a widespread steady but lighter rain as a disturbance coming out of central Texas intercepted the sea breeze boundary. Today may be more hit and miss, but risk for areas of heavy rain will continue. Atmospheric moisture remains fully loaded, but instability, which we need to really get things popping, looks to be down a bit today. Expect at least some rain and some pockets of heavier rain, but at this time, we don’t expect widespread heavy rain today. We will let you know if that expectation changes.

Tonight through Sunday

We supposedly enter the heart of this rainy period tonight and tomorrow as the upper low ejecting out of Central Texas meanders north and east past our area. As this happens, we may, for a time, maximize the ingredients necessary for periods of rain and storms, and this is where we will watch for more widespread heavy rainfall chances and more notable street flooding potentially. I say “supposedly,” because there’s been a shift in modeling today, which favors areas east of the Houston area, mostly in Louisiana for the heaviest rain risk. Upper lows are notoriously tough to forecast and little changes like this can lead to big expectation changes. We will keep you posted through the weekend.

So between tonight and Sunday, don’t expect it to rain the entire time, but there will be periods of showers, storms, and locally heavy rainfall. We think Saturday may have the highest chances for that to happen, with perhaps the worst of the action shifting out of our area by as early as Saturday afternoon and staying east of us Sunday. That doesn’t mean a dry weekend, but it does perhaps allow for more frequent breaks in the rain. Most outdoor plans this weekend will likely need to be either a true game time decision or postponed if you would rather not deal with the hassle.

Taking the glass half full approach (depending on your point of view, of course): We typically start to ramp up into summer heat around now, but there is absolutely no heat to be found thanks to the clouds and rain. Highs this weekend will generally be in the low-80s with lows in the 70s.

How much more rain? Between now and Sunday evening, we expect that most areas will see another inch or two on average.

Some places will almost certainly see more, while some other locales may see a bit less. Again, the Stage 1 Flood alert we have posted is meant to cover for those handful of locations that see mostly nuisance street flooding like we saw yesterday.

Next week

I fully expect more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to start next week. Monday and Tuesday look like they will have the highest odds of wet weather. But I don’t see a truly dry day area-wide before next Wednesday at the earliest.