The dead of summer is nigh. If you look at the climate “normals” for Houston, the span from July 27 to August 20 is the historically warmest time of year when the average high is 95 degrees, and the average low 75 degrees. This period, a little more than three weeks, is when Houston often sees the hottest weather of the year. And after a somewhat cooler start to July, we’ll definitely experience this in the days ahead.

The overall pattern this week is fairly straight forward. The high pressure ridge that made for a hot and sunny weekend will shift slightly north this week, allowing for some scattered afternoon showers, before shifting southward again in time for next weekend.

Monday

Before the high pressure eases northward, Houston will see a hot and sunny day today a lot like this past weekend. We can expect highs in the upper 90s with only very light west or southwesterly winds. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Here’s what we know about the mid-week weather for the upper Texas coast. The atmosphere will be a little bit more amenable to rain showers, but rains should still be more “miss” than “hit,” and shower activity will be virtually nil during the overnight and morning hours. So basically these will be mostly sunny days except when they’re not, your daily chance of rain is probably about one-in-three, and highs will likely reach into the mid-90s. Nights should be mostly clear and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

For now we expect high pressure to build more directly over the region this weekend, which should reduce rain chances. For now, therefore, our expectation is highs in the upper 90s with mostly sunny skies. Since Sunday is the first day of August, that seems appropriate.

Tropics

Overall, the Atlantic tropics remain quiet. A system near the coast of Georgia is increasingly less likely to develop, and across the rest of the Atlantic basin the chance of something else forming this week is low. Matt will have more in a tropics overview tomorrow, but the news for now is favorable. We have about two more months in which we need to watch things closely.

While it hasn’t exactly been chilly this summer, at least July has been running a couple degrees below average for Houston. We’re now set to, in the words of Emeril Lagasse, “kick it up a notch” this weekend. Let’s rock and roll.

Today

High pressure is going to begin to exert its will on southeast Texas today. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere is going to drop precipitously, allowing for a reduction in rain chances this afternoon. The faucet isn’t going to shut off completely, but it’s likely going to scale back to a slow drip. Call it maybe 20 percent coverage of rain this afternoon. And that may even be generous.

More importantly, the heat is going to ramp up. We topped out at 93° at both Bush & Hobby Airports yesterday. Look for about 95-96° today officially, with a few places hotter and coastal areas a little less hot but quite humid.

With the humidity, it’s likely to feel like 105 to 110° at times, which is right about when Heat Advisories should be issued by the National Weather Service. So, don’t be shocked to see at least a couple of those in the days ahead. It may turn a bit hazy as the day goes on and a cloud of Saharan dust arrives from the Gulf, but that will be more noticeable tomorrow I think. High summer’s here folks.

Weekend

This weekend should feature similar weather on both Saturday and Sunday. I’d expect highs to be 96 to 98° officially, with a few places possibly coming in near 100° and coastal locales in the lower 90s. Lows will likely be in the 70s to low 80s. Heat index values each afternoon will again likely exceed 105° in many spots. Rain chances are about as close to zero as it gets for this time of year.

You will notice a good bit of Saharan dust in the air this weekend from that dust cloud overhead. I think Saturday may look more acrid than Sunday. Either way, those of you with respiratory sensitivity to dust events should be ready for some discomfort this weekend. Sunrises and sunsets may be a bit more alluring than usual at least.

Next week

Yesterday, Eric wondered if I might be able to provide some clarity on next week’s rain chances. I can’t tell you too much new, but based on what I see in the weather models, I suspect we’ll see another hot, mostly dry day Monday, followed by a slightly less hot, slightly less dry Tuesday. On Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the center of the ridge shifts back into Colorado, which should be enough to open the Gulf back up for daytime, sea breeze-driven thunderstorms.

By later Thursday and into next weekend, it appears that the ridge will actually slide back southeast again toward Texas, which means we might recycle hotter, drier weather for several days late next week and into the weekend. I don’t think it will be quite like this weekend, but it may not be too far off.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting a disturbance that is emerging off the Southeast coast today. It has a low chance of possibly developing over the weekend, but at this time it is not expected to turn west into the Gulf.

Houston is about to move into a drier pattern for awhile. As Matt has been joking-but-not-really on Twitter, it seems like every day of this month has had a “rain o’clock” when storms moved into some portion of the area. But today is probably the last day for rain o’clock in Houston, after which the rains will end at least through the weekend, if not longer. You might say time is running out for rain o’clock.

Before that happens I want to share with you a graphic showing rainfall accumulations on Wednesday in our region.

What I want you to note is that while some significant chunks of Houston saw no rain at all, a few isolated areas saw 3+ inches (darker reds), and a larger part saw 1 to 2 inches. Also, you can see that there is no real pattern to these rains—there’s an area near Pearland, one far to the southwest of Houston, one northwest near Jersey Village, and an area in Chambers County. In hindsight, I guess you could say rains were more likely to the west of Interstate 45.

The bottom line is that rain o’clock has been good for our lawns this month, and it’s helped to keep temperatures down. But it’s been a challenge for forecasters!

Thursday

While we’re anticipating rain o’clock later today, probably between the hours of Noon and 6 pm CT, I don’t think showers will be quite as widespread as on Wednesday. Yes, these storms will be capable of producing downpours, but they should have a little more northward motion, so they won’t just sit over an area like on Tuesday. So rains are possible, certainly, but they should be more spotty and produce lower accumulations today. With partly sunny skies, we can expect high temperatures to reach the low 90s for most areas. Winds will be light, out of the south at about 5 mph.

Friday

As high pressure begins to assert itself, rain chances should drop back significantly on Friday, with perhaps 10 percent of the area seeing a brief, passing shower. Otherwise, we will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s. Winds will again be light, out of the south.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is going to be hot and sunny, with highs likely in the upper 90s for most of the region except for the immediate coast. Nighttime temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-70s for most. If you’ve forgotten what a proper summer feels like in Houston, you’re about to be reminded. Please do take care in the heat.

Next week

After another sunny day on Monday, the forecast becomes more muddled. The influence of the ridge should begin to weaken, and our overall atmosphere may moisten some. This may allow for the return of some rain chances, but right now it’s difficult to say whether that will be enough to push us back toward a wetter pattern. My bet would be on continued hot and sunny weather, but I’m not overly confident in that. Perhaps Matt will have some answers in his post tomorrow.

We are definitely beginning to transition from a wetter pattern to a drier one across our region, but before sunny skies dominate our weather we’ll see two more days with at least scattered chances of rain showers. Then, the heat really settles in this weekend, with some of our warmest weather this summer.

Also, some birds near Jersey Village were apparently having some fun this morning around sunrise, as you can see on the video below.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm this morning, with lows across much of the city barely dropping below 80 degrees. Mostly sunny skies will allow highs to rise into the low- to mid-90s this afternoon. This daytime heating combined with the sea breeze will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop from about 2 pm to 8 pm CT, with briefly heavy rains possible. About one-third of the area is likely to see rains today, with the most likely locations along and near Interstate 10, I’d guess. Winds will be very light, and showers should abate as the sun sets.

Thursday

Thursday should be a lot like Wednesday.

Friday

By Friday we should begin to fall under the influence of high pressure. While some isolated showers will still be possible, chances are probably less than 20 percent that you’ll see rain. Highs will be solidly in the mid=90s.

Saturday and Sunday

For those of you who have bemoaned the lack of hot and sunny weather in Houston this summer, you’re in luck. This weekend should bring the burn as high pressure settles over the area. We should see ample sunshine and high temperatures in the upper-90s. You’ll want to take care outside during the hottest parts of the day.

Next week

The aforementioned high pressure ridge may begin to back off a bit as we head into next week, and this would allow for highs to drop back into the mid-90s. We may also start to see the return of some slight rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday as the sea breeze jump starts a bit of activity, but for now the timing of this remains uncertain.