Tracking storms Gamma and Delta, and lots of sunshine for Texas

Good morning. Our forecast remains one of ample sunshine and warm weather for Houston, along with the return of humidity by the middle of the week. By next weekend highs could again approach 90 degrees as summer lite returns to the region for a spell. Meanwhile, we’re keeping a tab on the active tropics, but continue to see no direct threats to Texas.

Monday

Another weak front moved through the region on Sunday, and as a result today should be spectacular in Houston. Expect highs in the low 80s, sunny skies, and reasonably dry air. We will see a pleasant night tonight, with lows dropping into the 50s for areas well inland, while remaining warmer in the city, and closer to the coast. Winds will generally be light, out of the northeast.

Monday night should be the coolest night of the week for Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Pleasant weather continues, albeit with a slight warming trend into the middle of the week as highs push into the mid-80s. Skies should remain mostly sunny.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather toward the end of the week will depend upon the track of what may be Hurricane Delta. Most likely, we will see a slight increase in rain chances, along with continued mostly sunny skies. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s with increasing humidity.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Highs this weekend should approach 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies. This will be one of our last, best chances to hit 90 degrees this year so if that’s your thing—do your thing. If fall-like weather is your thing, early indications suggest a reasonably strong front may reach Houston by the middle of next week.

Tropics

We’re tracking two systems that are going to play in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Let’s start with what appears to be the bigger threat to the United States—newly formed Tropical Storm Delta. The system is on track to move from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night, and should continue to the northwest before finding the edge of high pressure, after which time it should move north.

4am CT track forecast for Delta. (National Hurricane Center)

There is some question whether the final landfall location will take place over Louisiana, or to the east. If the track moves closer to western or central Louisiana, our region could see some slightly elevated winds and seas on Thursday and Thursday night, but right now our expectation is that it probably remains far enough east of Houston to preclude us from seeing really notable changes.

In terms of intensity, the storm has seen increasing convection this morning, and should find favorable conditions over the very warm Caribbean Sea to intensify further. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to reach 105 mph sustained winds by Thursday, after which some weakening could begin due to shear and cooler waters in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Lots of uncertainty remains regarding intensity.

As for Tropical Storm Gamma, there are two potential outcomes, I think. One is that the storm spins around the southern Gulf of Mexico long enough that it eventually dissipates later this week. The second option is that some kind of a weak system gets pulled north, toward Louisiana, behind Delta. For now, I’d bet on the former option.

4am CT track forecast for Tropical Storm Gamma. (National Hurricane Center)

We’ll be tracking the tropical activity closely, and will update later today if the forecast changes significantly.

Sunday tropics update with two storms threatening the Gulf

Jumping in here with a post because we’ve received several questions about the tropics now that potentially two storms may move into the Gulf of Mexico this week. Overall, our thinking has not changed. While the Gulf may may be busy in the coming days, the chance that anything significant tracks into Texas remains quite low. Let’s discuss.

Tropical Storm Gamma

Gamma remains a relatively strong tropical storm today, but it is now faces increasing wind shear. The overall intensity and track of the storm remain uncertain, but it generally is expected to weaken and remain around the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico for several days. As a result, Gamma will produce heavy rainfall this week over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. We have some questions about what happens by Wednesday or Thursday.

Tropical Storm Gamma forecast as of 4pm CT Sunday. (National Hurricane Center)

Potential Tropical Cyclone 26

This storm has more potential to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and into the Gulf of Mexico by later Tuesday or Wednesday. Officially, the National Hurricane Center suggests it could become a Category 2 hurricane (it would be named Delta) by the middle of next week, but it could easily be stronger or weaker than that. Here’s the track forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 forecast as of 4pm CT Sunday. (National Hurricane Center)

European model ensemble forecasts

Now, this is a fairly messy forecast due to the potential proximity of Gamma and PTC 26. We can see this by looking through some of the European model ensemble tracks for next week. First up is the position forecast for Wednesday morning, showing Gamma hanging out in the Bay of Campeche, and PTC 26 just moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

European ensemble forecast for 7am CT Wednesday. (Weathernerds)

By Friday we can see there is some potential for interaction, and this is why we have some uncertainty in the overall track for later next week. Here’s the map for Friday morning:

European ensemble forecast for 7am CT Friday. (Weathernerds)

At this point, our biggest question is what happens to Gamma. It’s not clear whether the storm will get pulled north behind PTC 26, or continue to swirl around the Southern Gulf of Mexico for awhile longer.

Now let’s jump ahead 24 hours, to Saturday morning. By this time PTC has found the western edge of high pressure over Florida and the western Atlantic Ocean, and begins its turn north.

European ensemble forecast for 7am CT Saturday. (Weathernerds)

For PTC 26, the most likely scenario is that it will move into Louisiana as some kind of tropical storm or hurricane next Friday or so. There is generally pretty good model agreement in this outcome for PTC 26. As for Gamma, it’s either going to fizzle in the southern Gulf of Mexico or, potentially, follow PTC 26 northward. If this happens, it’s likely that a fairly weak system will follow PTC 26 into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast next weekend.

The bottom line is that there is some uncertainty about the track of both of these systems, and it is complicated by their potential proximity later this week. However, all of the available evidence suggests that neither system is likely to make much of an impact on Texas, aside from swells along the coast. We’ll be closely watching for the possibility of of changes, of course.

Pleasant fall weekend looms for Houston, “Gamma” to form in the Caribbean

Good morning. Houston’s forecast remains on track, with a succession of mostly sunny days and weak fronts to keep a lid on temperatures and our air reasonably dry. Because there really is nothing else to talk about this morning, we’ll spare a few words on two tropical systems in the Caribbean. The tropics forecast is complicated, but likely inconsequential for the Houston area.

Friday

Drier air is moving into the region in the wake of a front on Thursday, and it feels splendid outside with lows generally in the 60s across the region, and dewpoints in the 50s. High temperatures today will reach into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies, with a light northeasterly breeze. It looks like low temperatures tonight will be the region’s coolest for the next several days, with lows on Saturday morning dropping into the mid-to-upper 50s for inland areas.

Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday and Sunday

Houston should have a pleasant fall weekend, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday. As winds shift to come from the southeast later in the day, we’ll see a slightly warmer night and then highs somewhere in the mid- or possibly upper-80s on Sunday. The passage of another weak front on Sunday may bring a few clouds, but generally we anticipate a sunny weekend.

Monday and Tuesday

The start of the coming work week should bring more of the same, with highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s, lots of sunshine, and a fair amount of dry air in the wake of Sunday’s front.

After that?

We may see another weak front by around Thursday, and this may bring some clouds into the sky and our first real chance of rain in awhile. But honestly, I don’t have much confidence in the forecast after the middle of next week, so we’ll have to get back to you on Monday.

The Caribbean Sea is fueling two tropical systems. (National Hurricane Center)

The tropics

So there are still two systems in or near the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is tracking. The low-pressure area near the Yucatan Peninsula now has an 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gamma over the next two days. It is being aided by the front that pushed through Houston several days ago, and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. This front is providing a northerly flow to help the storm complete a circulation, which has trade winds on the other side.

How an old front is helping to develop a circulation. (NOAA)

This system is likely to move toward the Yucatan Peninsula over the next day or two. There it may get swallowed up by interaction with land, dry air over the Gulf, and an not-great shear environment. However, it is possible that something emerges into the Bay of Campeche in a few days, and wanders around there—bottled up by the additional fronts coming into Texas and high pressure.

After this, who knows? It could get pushed into Mexico, eventually, or maybe pulled north or northeast. It remains very difficult to see this system (or the one behind it) affecting the upper Texas coast, but we’ll continue to watch it for you and update if anything changes. Have a great weekend!

Houston’s weather—sunny for as far as the eye can see

September ended last night, and all told Houston’s Hobby Airport recorded a total of 13.07 inches of rain during the month. This makes it the third wettest September at this location since records were first kept in 1930, the National Weather Service says. Moreover, out of the 1,069 total months of observations, this September ranks as the 20th wettest on record. It was in fact the wettest month at Hobby since August of 2017, when Hurricane Harvey impacted the region. There is no rain to speak of in our present-day forecast, however.

Thursday

Lows this morning are a few degrees warmer than Wednesday morning, and highs probably will shoot up into the upper 80s this afternoon with the fairly dry air and sunny skies. A front will push into Houston later this evening, but the dry and cooler air associated with it will lag, likely arriving Friday morning. Therefore lows Thursday night may only drop into the mid-60s in the city.

Would you like a side of sunshine with your sunshine, Houston? (National Weather Service)

Friday and Saturday

These will be a pair of fine, sunny days, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows in Houston should drop to near 60 on both Friday and Saturday nights—with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather prevailing inland. By Saturday the onshore flow should resume.

Sunday

This should be a slightly warmer day, with highs reaching the mid, or possibly upper 80s, beneath sunny skies. We still think a secondary push of dry air will back into the area from the northeast sometime on Sunday, although I’m not highly confident in how strong, or persistent it will be.

Next week

The the wake of Sunday’s (weak?) front, expect highs to likely stay within the low- to mid-80s for the first couple of days next week with lows in the 80s. As we’ve been saying this won’t be cold weather, but it will be mild. We still expect some clouds to begin dotting the skies by around next Wednesday as humidity begins to return with vengeance. Some slight rain chances return by Friday or so.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking two disturbances in or near the Caribbean Sea, and its five-day tropical outlook can look pretty intimidating at first glance. The first system, shown in red, has a 70 percent chance of developing over the next five days, and the follow-on system a 20 percent chance.

Tropical outlook for 7am CT on Thursday. (National Hurricane Center)

However, the reality is that the overall pattern suggests high pressure moving into Texas early next week should buffer the state from both storms. The map below shows the European model’s ensemble track forecast for all tropical lows from now through next Saturday. The model basically forces anything that forms into the Bay of Campeche, and of those that survive, a few eventually get pulled northeast toward Louisiana or Florida.

European model ensemble forecast for all tropical tracks through Saturday, October 10. (Weathernerds.org)

So here’s what we think. Is it annoying that there are two potential tropical storms looming in the Caribbean Sea? Sure. Do we believe any of them are likely to threaten Texas in a meaningful way? At this time it’s very difficult to see how that happens.