It may seem weird to talk about “dry” conditions after Tropical Storm Beta drenched Houston from September 20 to 23, but the reality is that the western half of the metro area has seen no precipitation in the more than three weeks since. If you didn’t get rain from Hurricane Delta, you haven’t gotten any. Here’s a plot of rainfall accumulations over the last three weeks—a time when the region has experienced plenty of sunshine and heat to dry things out.

So when might the region pick up some more substantive rainfall? The reality is that there is a lot more sunshine in our forecast than rain chances in the near term. A front may bring a moderate chance of brief, light rainfall on Friday morning. But after that our next real chance for a rain that might soak the ground does not come until the middle or end of next week, and that is by no means a sure thing.

Wednesday

Temperatures briefly dipped into the 60s for much of the area this morning, but with ample sunshine we’ll see warming back into the mid- to upper-80s today. Winds from the northeast will become calm, before shifting to the south later today, or tonight. Lows Wednesday night should be similar to Tuesday night.

Thursday

This will be a warm and sunny day, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and light southerly winds. Temperatures on Thursday night will depend upon the timing of the front, which likely will reach the Interstate 69 corridor a few hours after midnight on Friday morning, and push off the coast within a few hours of sunrise.

Friday

We will see some scattered, light showers with the front, but they should fade out by mid-morning at the latest. Skies should remain mostly cloudy on Friday, with a brisk north or northeasterly wind. Highs may struggle to rise much above 70 degrees for the area as cooler, dry air blows in. Lows Friday night will be the coolest of the week.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny, with highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, and a relatively quick return of the onshore flow ensuring sunny and mid-80s on Sunday. Frankly the forecast for Sunday night and beyond remains uncertain.

Tropics

Several of you have asked about the tropics, and all I have to say is that we are now firmly sliding into fall and there is nothing to worry about for Texas. We may see the season’s next storm form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in about a week or 10 days, but if this develops it is likely to move north, rather than northwest toward Texas. We’re good, y’all.

Houston hit 92 degrees on Monday at Bush Intercontinental Airport before a moderate cool front pashed through the region overnight. I’m not making any guarantees, but if I had to guess this probably was the last 90-degree day of this calendar year for Houston. We may get close again a day or two this week, but a stronger front will arrive by Friday morning. The bottom line is that fall will start to feel more like fall in the days ahead.

Tuesday

The region will see sunny skies today in the wake of the front, and highs should push into the mid- to upper-80s as our drier air warms more quickly. But this should also allow temperatures to drop more quickly as the Sun goes down. Lows tonight should drop to around 60 degrees to the north and west of Houston, and in to the mid-60s in the city itself. Winds will be light, out of the northeast.

Wednesday

Another sunny day, similar to Tuesday. As winds shift to the south during the afternoon we’ll see the beginnings of an onshore flow that will make for more humid conditions overnight and on Thursday.

Thursday

This day will see plenty of sunshine too, but may feel warmer due to increasing humidity. Expect highs to reach the upper 80s—here’s where we risk some areas touching 90 degrees again. A stronger front is expected to cross the region on Friday morning, likely reaching the coast around sunrise, give or take. This may produce some showers overnight. Right now I’d peg rain chances at about 40 percent for the area, with light accumulations of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch of rain.

Friday

Some morning clouds should give way to afternoon sunshine, as highs remain in the 70s for most of Houston in the wake of the front. Friday night should be the coolest of the week, with lows generally dropping into the 50s across the area except for the immediate coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Highs on Saturday should remain in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with a lot more sunshine, followed by slightly warmer conditions on Sunday—which also will be sunny—following the return of the onshore flow. Next week’s weather is a bit uncertain as it is not clear whether another front will make it through by Tuesday or so.

Given the weather events of the last couple of days—a hurricane making landfall in Louisiana, high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across Houston—you’d be forgiven if you thought the calendar read mid-August, rather than mid-October. However a pair of fronts this week will remind us that we’re heading deeper into fall.

Monday

It is rather warm and muggy this morning, with lows only on the mid-70s across the region, and sweaty dewpoints to match. With the exception of areas far to our northwest, such as College Station, a cold front will not arrive in time to modify our high temperatures today, which should reach around 90 degrees.

However, the arrival of this weak front later today in Houston should bring drier air into the region overnight, allowing for lows to generally drop into the upper 60s. There will be a slight chance of rain showers with the frontal passage later this afternoon or evening along the coast. Although the front will be most noticeable west of Interstate 45, it is now expected to make it all the way off the coast.

Tuesday

This should be a pleasant day, with dry air, highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be light, out of the north or northeast. Lows Tuesday night should drop into the low- to mid-60s. Skies will be clear.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of slightly warmer, and more humid days while we await this week’s second front—due to arrive later on Thursday. Highs likely will be in the mid- to upper-80s, and there’s perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain on Thursday afternoon or evening as the front blows through. This will be a stronger front that will bring noticeably cooler weather for the weekend.

Friday

We expect to see mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps only in the low 70s. Lows Friday night should be the coolest of the week, with temperatures possibly dropping into the 40s for areas well inland, and the 50s for most of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re expecting a sunny weekend, with highs in the mid-70s to 80 degrees. The onshore flow may return by Sunday, or we may get yet another front—as of yet there is not great agreement on that in the global models.