Launching the 2020 Space City Weather fundraiser—your chance to give back

Before jumping into the forecast this morning I want to announce the beginning of our 2020 fundraiser, which will last for the next three weeks. We only do this once a year, and never during inclement weather, because Matt and I do not want to seem opportunistic. But if you would like to help support the site—which is a considerable undertaking—this is your chance. All items should arrive a week before Christmas.

At our fundraising link you can purchase:

With this design Matt and I hope to earn your vote in 2021. Our campaign promise to you: Low humidity!

Given the horrendous hurricane season endured by our neighbors to the east this year, we are donating 25 percent of proceeds from the “Texas stands with Louisiana” shirt to the Louisiana-based charity SBP, which helps homeowners and businesses rebuild after tropical disasters. The design of this t-shirt and sweatshirt showcases Texas’ solidarity with our neighboring state after it endured five hurricane landfalls this year.

Louisiana-Texas t-shirt design. 25 percent of funds raised with this design will be donated to SBP.

Thank you for your support—Matt and I are always truly humbled by the response to this fundraiser.

Monday

Today’s weather will more or less be a continuation of Sunday, with some patchy fog in the morning giving way to partly sunny skies later in the day. Expect light southeasterly winds, and highs to reach into the low 80s for most areas. Temperatures Monday night are unlikely to drop much below 70 for most areas, with plenty of humidity. This should be the warmest night of the week.

Tuesday

This is the day a cold front approaches the region, but it probably will not push into the metro area until the overnight hours. Also, it’s almost certainly going to stall near the Interstate 69 corridor—so if you live south or east of Houston you’re unlikely to see much of a sensible change in your weather. This front may generate some scattered, light showers, but overall rain chances are probably less than 30 percent on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect highs to reach around 80 degrees.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The effects of the front will wash out pretty quickly on Wednesday as the it waffles around and retreats, but our overall flow should turn more easterly to end the week. The net effect of this will be to bring slightly drier and cooler air into the region. Expect sunny days, highs of around 80 or in the low 80s, and overnight lows dropping into the low- to mid-60s except right along the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

This weekend should see a continuation of our sunny weather and warm days, with highs of around 80 degrees, or a bit warmer. The pattern finally changes—timing to be nailed down later—with a front later on Sunday, or Sunday night to bring much drier air into the region and cool us down. At this point, the front does not look much like a rainmaker however.

Tropical Storm Eta

This system continues to confound forecasters. The storm’s official track forecast is shown below, but the European and GFS models diverge broadly in their forecasts. The official track more or less follows the European model forecast.

Official Eta track forecast. (National Hurricane Center)

But there is another reasonably likely possibility in which Eta continues to drift west in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday and then … succumbs to wind shear and dies, or bends back north toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, or keeps drifting southwest into Mexico.

GFS model ensemble forecast for Tropical Storm Eta. (Weather Bell)

If you’re looking at this and you’re worried about Texas, don’t be. There are no real plausible scenarios in which Eta drifts westward far enough, and holds a circulation together long enough, to have a meaningful impact on the state.

A nice, slightly warmer weekend ahead, so when is Houston’s next front?

After a truly delightful stretch of autumn weather the last week or so, the weather pattern will change this weekend, ushering in slightly warmer temperatures (especially in the mornings) and noticeably higher humidity. Overall, it should still be pretty nice though!

Today

Look for abundant sunshine today. We’ll manage to warm into the low-80s this afternoon after a cool start in the 50s for most.

Weekend

We should continue with partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, although I think we’ll probably see at least a few more clouds on Sunday. Shower chances should be very low and mainly off to our east. They won’t be zero though, so don’t be shocked to see some sprinkles or a passing shower, especially east of I-45 on Sunday.

Sunday morning should feature low temperatures back up into the 60s in most places as humidity returns. (NWS forecast via WeatherBell)

While daytime highs should be basically in the low-80s each day, morning lows will build from the upper-50s tomorrow, about 5 or 6 degrees warmer than today, to the mid-60s on Sunday morning.

Next week

We will continue to see temperatures and humidity build a bit on Monday. There should be a good amount of morning low clouds around, followed by some gradual clearing. That said, an isolated shower is possible. Highs should again be in the 80s after starting the day in the mid- to upper-60s. Tuesday sees a cold front approach the College Station area. We will again be warm with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, if not low-70s.

The question then becomes: Does that front get to Houston? Right now, the answer is probably not. At least not right away. Expect that front to flirt with us or areas to our west into later next week before perhaps getting a kick through by next weekend. We should see a mix of sun and clouds in the lead up to that. Temperatures will still be warm, but they might be a few degrees cooler than early in the week, however. More on this for you Monday.

We could use some rain

Since Tropical Storm Beta back in late September, the Houston area (officially) has had less than 1 inch of rainfall. Some places have seen some more, others less. While Harris County is not in drought, we are starting to see pockets of drought flare up in surrounding counties.

Drought is slowly expanding in the counties surrounding Houston. (UNL Drought Monitor)

We could use a bit of rainfall. While the chance of showers isn’t zero over the next week, we aren’t expecting any meaningful rain. Perhaps with next weekend’s cold front push. We’ll see.

Tropics

Tropical Depression Eta is expected to return to tropical storm strength this afternoon or tonight. It will then take a very convoluted track over Cuba, possibly east of Florida, then back west into the Gulf.

Eta is expected to become a tropical storm again before taking a really abnormal track around Cuba and Florida over the next 5 to 7 days. (NOAA NHC)

We don’t expect Eta to intensify significantly, but nevertheless it will be a tropical storm, capable of doing tropical storm things for Cuba and South Florida. The end game here should see Eta picked up and lifted north into the eastern Gulf Coast later next week as our cold front slides that way, probably still as a tropical storm.

After a bit more drier air, a warmer, more humid weekend looms

Good morning. If you’ve signed up for email updates from Space City Weather, we know that some of you have been experiencing formatting issues on both your mobile phones and desktops. We’re not sure exactly what is causing this problem, but are aware of it, and are troubleshooting. In the meantime, you can always just click the headline in the email to go to the website. In terms of our weather, not much has changed—we’re still expecting lots of sunshine, and warmer temperatures this weekend.

Thursday

It’s much warmer across the region this morning, with lows in the low 60s in the city and partly cloudy skies. Expect high temperatures to reach around 80 degrees later today, under mostly sunny skies. Although it is fairly humid outside, a pocket of drier air should move into the area later today, and this should allow for a slightly cooler nights. I think most of Houston, except for the coast, will probably dip into the 50s under partly cloudy skies tonight.

Houston will enjoy a pleasant fall night on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

This should be a pretty glorious day with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, sunny skies, and reasonably dry air. Lows Friday night should be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend we’re going to see a more pronounced onshore flow, and this will begin to ramp up humidity levels. I think daytime temperatures are still going to remain around 80 degrees, but nights will be warmer—in the mid- to upper-60s. I still expect skies to remain partly to mostly sunny, although the coast may see a few stray showers.

Houston will have full sunshine on Friday, and partly sunny weather thereafter. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The start of next week looks warm, with highs pushing into the mid-80s and more clouds. We start to see some slightly better rain chances on Monday and Tuesday in advance of a front, but right now I would not expect more than light showers. The front will cool us off, but it remains to be seen how much cooling will take place, and how long it will last. A stronger front may be in the cards for Friday or Saturday of next week.

Tropics

Hurricane Eta has wrought devastation in Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm’s center, now over Honduras, barely exists now, but it should move into the Caribbean Sea on Friday, and will pose a rainfall threat to Cuba and South Florida by Sunday. After that? The eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico will need to pay attention to the storm, which may be out at sea for another week or so before finally coming ashore.

Houston’s weather will be rather boring for awhile, and that’s not bad

Good morning. We stick to weather on this site—and so there are no politics here. But we would like to thank everyone in Houston, Texas, and the rest of the country who spent Tuesday working at poll locations, counting ballots late into the night and even today, and otherwise ensuring our nation’s free and fair elections. We should be proud of our ability to conduct an election in the midst of a pandemic, with record turnout.

Wednesday

The Houston region will warm up some today as high pressure that has provided us with clear and cool weather moves east. This will allow for a more pronounced flow of moisture into the metro region today, leading to moderately warmer nights and somewhat more humidity. As a result, we can expect highs today to reach into the upper 70s to 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies, and for lows to be about 10 degrees warmer than recent nights for most locations. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

The weather to end this week will basically remain in a stasis pattern as an upper-level low pressure system develops over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to the formation of some clouds on Thursday morning, and should help to arrest and possibly reverse the region’s warming trend. Highs both days will rise into the upper 70s to 80 degrees, but nighttime lows may drop back into the 50s for most of the region on Thursday and Friday nights. Despite the proximity of the upper-level low, however, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of rain chances.

Temperature forecast for central Houston over the next week. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend I think it will be “game on” for the warming trend, and this will lead to considerably more humidity, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and nights warming into the mid- to upper-60s in Houston. Skies should remain mostly sunny.

Next week

When I look to the forecast for next week I can’t help but groan as it’s really not becoming all that much more clear. At this point some kind of front is likely to reach the coast on Tuesday, and bring a reasonable chance of light to moderate rain with it. But I can’t say with much confidence how much cool air will be arriving with the front, or how long it will stick—maybe a day or two? Then there is some evidence, which is far from overwhelming, for a stronger front toward the weekend. Weather forecasting isn’t perfect, folks, but I think it’s safe to say we do better than polls most days.

Tropics

Eta made landfall as a major hurricane on Tuesday, bringing life-threatening storm surge into Nicaragua, and lashing Central America with extremely heavy rainfall. The storm will meander across Honduras, and likely Guatemala, before turning northeast and moving back into the Caribbean Sea. I have not been able to find reliable reports of the devastation so far caused in Central America.

Eta’s track by Sunday becomes highly uncertain. (National Hurricane Center)

If you liked the uncertainty in our forecast for next week’s weather in Houston, you’ll love it for the future of Eta in about a week’s time. I think it is safe to say the storm will move toward Cuba this weekend, and then probably approach southern Florida.

We have real questions about how strong the storm will be at that time, and whether it begins to loop around in absence of any pronounced steering currents—perhaps somewhere in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Eta is definitely something for Florida and the southeastern United States to watch, but not something we need concern ourselves with in Texas.