Good morning! Right out of the gate, we are experiencing some dense fog this morning all over the place away from the coast. If you’re out and about through about 9 or 10 AM, please use caution. Conditions should improve after that. More below.

Drought update

As I have the last couple Fridays, I’m going to talk about drought this week, and in fact, I’m going to lead with drought.

The Houston region (the footprint of the National Weather Service forecast office, at least) has seen drought expand from about 42 percent of the region last week to 59 percent this week. Severe drought covered a little over 4 percent of the region last week, and has since expanded to cover about 11 percent this week. Most of that is in the Brazos Valley or north of there. Harris County is just now emerging in “abnormally dry,” the precursor to a true drought. Outlying areas are already there. Texas as a whole has seen drought expand over about three-quarters of the state. The question now becomes how bad does it get? That’s a tough one to answer. Over the next 5 days at least (which gets us to the end of the next drought monitor update), we will see scant rainfall.

Beyond that? Well, the National Weather Service isn’t exactly optimistic. Their 30 day outlook released yesterday calls for a better than 50 percent chance of below average rainfall. That means drier than normal weather is expected to persist into December.

That does not necessarily mean we’re heading for a serious drought, but here’s a statistic. We are in a La Niña event right now, meaning the waters of the tropical Pacific are running cooler than normal. Using the Oceanic Niño Index and filtering for winters that saw at least 2 periods at or below -1 between November and March (indicative of what I would classify as a firmly moderate La Niña event), we can compare rainfall averages. In a normal December through March, Houston officially receives 13.73″ of rainfall on average. In just those La Niña years since 1980, we’ve averaged 11.92″ of rainfall. So there is a definite skew toward a drier than normal winter. If we can be bailed out every now and again by a rain event, that goes a long way toward mitigating drought a bit. Over the next 3 to 4 weeks at least, that does not seem likely, however. We’ll see.

On to the shorter-term forecast.

Today through Sunday

Again, just watch for fog this morning. Once the fog lifts, expect a mix of clouds and sun the rest of today. I do expect a few showers around the area, none too serious, but just don’t be shocked to see some minor rain. Highs will be close to 80 degrees this afternoon.

More fog is possible tonight with lows in the 60s. Look for a mix of clouds and sun otherwise on Saturday, another very slight chance for a shower, and highs near 80 degrees.

Sunday should be more of the same, although fog risk may be just a little lower in the morning: Lows in the 60s and highs in the upper-70s or low-80s.

Monday front & Tuesday

A cold front is aiming to slice through the region on Monday. There honestly does not appear to be much to this front, either rain-wise or “cold” wise. We should see sunshine develop for Monday with slightly lower humidity. Expect highs in the 70s with morning lows in the 50s. We’ll get another slightly cooler night Monday night, followed up by quick return to warmer temperatures Tuesday, along with a slight shower chance. Highs on Tuesday should bounce back close to 80 degrees.

Beyond Tuesday

The weather pattern that we’re in is one that features a very quick moving, mostly low-amplitude jet stream. This means we will see continued cold fronts but probably not a lot of truly cold air. Basically, what I would call Goldilocks weather with a touch of humidity at times.

Models continue to point toward another front on Wednesday that, as Eric has noted this week, would usher in pleasant weather for Thanksgiving Day. We will stick to that again today. However, it does look like we will quickly warm up on Friday before yet another front arrives next weekend. That front could have a little oomph behind it, although despite all these fronts, right now it seems that we will see relatively little rainfall. And so it goes.

Fundraiser

I just want to again thank our readers for their support during our fundraiser. There’s still some time left if you want to grab some Space City Weather swag. We sincerely appreciate your support, both now and year-round! It truly means so much to us.

Good morning. Lows have bottomed out at around 60 degrees this morning, and now we’ll see warmer conditions through the weekend as the onshore flow gets going. Houston’s very, very dry air from earlier this week is now long gone and we’re not quite sure when it will return.

Thursday

Rising moisture levels have led to the formation of some clouds this morning, but skies should clear out some this afternoon, allowing highs to climb to around 80 degrees. Winds will generally be light, out of the southeast. Overnight lows should only drop to the mid-60s for most areas tonight. These temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than we normally would experience in late November.

Friday

With light winds, and little difference between dewpoints and temperatures, we likely will see some fog develop on Friday morning across parts of the Houston region. There’s some split in the models, but I think we’ll probably see at least partly, if not mostly cloudy skies during much of the daytime. There is maybe a 10 percent chance of rain on Friday, but don’t hold your breath for a fleeting shower.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will probably see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs near 80 degrees. There’s really not much to complain about here, but the air definitely won’t feel crisp, with fairly high humidity levels pervading.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should bring more of the same, mostly sunny weather and highs of around 80 to the region. There may be, again, some slight rain chances for the region during the daytime but it’s a low-end chance of 10 to 20 percent. Our next front is still a very strong “probably” in terms of pushing into the region. I think it will have enough oomph to make it to the coast by Monday morning but I can’t guarantee it.

Next week and Thanksgiving

The front should knock highs back into the 70s, with some drier air, and overnight lows may drop into the mid- to upper-50s for Houston. (But again, this is contingent on the front making it all the way through).

The models are similarly pointing to another weak front arriving on Wednesday or so, which would just be in time to bring us a Thanksgiving with drier air and highs in the 70s. But this is not a certainty either. For those seeking demonstrably cooler air, we probably will have to wait until next weekend, at the end of November.

Good morning. Thank you for your patience with this morning’s post. With dry air and temperatures dropping into the low 50s in my neck of the woods—and no certainty for when that might happen again—I cranked out a very long training run this morning. The roads were certainly nice and quiet at 4 a.m. And our weather, too, will be mostly quiet in the days ahead, with little excitement.

Wednesday

Skies will again be mostly sunny on Wednesday, but temperatures will be a little warmer, and the air a little more humid, thanks to subtle shift in winds, which are now blowing from the east at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will probably drop down into the 50s for most of Houston, but conditions will be warmer near the coast.

Thursday and Friday

As winds shift to come from the southeast on Thursday, we may see a few more clouds, and humidity levels will continue to creep up. Highs both days will reach about 80 degrees, and lows will likely only drop into the 60s for all but the most inland of areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see more of the same, which is to say mostly sunny skies, and highs around 80 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will again be in the 60s. The biggest outstanding question is the timing and strength of a front that probably will push into Houston on Sunday night or Monday morning.

The models are generally in agreement that the front will in fact make it through Houston, although that is not something I’d bet the farm on. Not that I own a farm. In any case, this front probably will drop highs back into the 70s, and lows into the 50s for most of the area. Emphasis on probably. Will we see any precipitation with the front? Maybe, but I think chances are only about 20 percent, and any accumulations will be light. We’ll try to have a better answer on Sunday’s rainfall potential tomorrow.

Thanksgiving week

Given the general uncertainty surrounding Sunday night’s probable front, the forecast becomes pretty murky, pretty quickly next week. The models are hinting at another front possibly making it through late Wednesday or on Thursday—which would be Thanksgiving. I sort of hope a front makes it, because otherwise Thanksgiving could be 80 degrees and humid. Perhaps some clarity will emerge on this in a day or two.

We’ll be back to our normal schedule tomorrow! Also, I think we’ve solved the formatting issues with the daily emails, but if you’re still have problems please let us know.

Good morning. We’re seeing some of the region’s coolest temperatures of November this morning, with lows in the 30s for outlying areas, and 40s in the city of Houston. We will see a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend, but after that the forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Note: Tomorrow’s post will arrive an hour or two late, which seems OK because not much is happening with our weather.

Tuesday

Conditions today will offer another fall delight for the Houston metro area, as sunny skies nudge high temperatures into the mid-70s. With light northeast winds, our air will remain very dry by Houston standards, as dewpoints crash into the 30s again this afternoon. This will not last, of course, but the region should experience one more cool evening, with temperatures perhaps a 3 to 5 degrees warmer Tuesday night than Monday.

Wednesday

Winds will shift to come more from the east on Wednesday, but this still will be another pleasant day with sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Lows on Wednesday night, however, may not fall below 60 for much of the region.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow begins to kick in on Thursday, bringing the region a pair of partly sunny days to end the work week, with highs around 80 degrees, give or take. Lows generally will be in the 60s as some humidity returns.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend should continue the trend, in terms of partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the general vicinity of 80 degrees. We can’t entirely rule out some rain showers, although chances for both days are probably only about 20 percent.

Next week

I’d love to be able to give you a confident forecast for next week, including the Thanksgiving holiday. Unfortunately, the pattern is not at all clear, and the model guidance is all over the place. Our first uncertainty is the progression of a cool front on Sunday night or Monday. How far does it get?

This may be another one of those situations where a front gets close to Houston and stalls, or actually makes it all the way to the coast. The next question is whether a reinforcing front makes it to Houston around Wednesday, and pushes all the way through. The latest, high resolution run of the European model, shown below, suggests that no fronts make it over the next 10 days, which would lead to a steamy Thanksgiving.

I don’t think this is going to happen, as I bet at least one front makes it through the region next week by Wednesday or so, and this probably would bring us cooler and drier weather for the holiday weekend. There is some support for this even in the European model’s ensembles, which I’ve included below. The bottom line is that we’re just going to have to wait a day or two, at least, to get some clarity.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser to support Space City Weather is ongoing. Thanks for your continued support!