Tropical Storm Isaias is bearing down on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, and as that storm exits, we actually look to settle down into a period of calm for a bit in the tropics. All good things must come to an end however, and as we go into the back half of August, we will begin to refocus our attention on the entirety of the Atlantic basin. For now, let’s enjoy the respite.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

No meaningful tropical activity is expected over the next week, although conditions will likely begin to get more active by August 15th or so.

Isaias

Isaias experienced a bit of a renaissance last night, ramping up to a moderately strong category 1 hurricane as it made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, NC.

3 days of #Isaias… from the Bahamas to Virginia, from hurricane to tropical storm to hurricane to tropical storm. It also became the *5th* named storm of the season to make US landfall already. https://t.co/O5tXQxhxEP@UMiamiRSMAS @capitalweather pic.twitter.com/mEoJGBcPYN

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 4, 2020

Since last evening, Isaias has raced northward and been downgraded to a tropical storm. The center is over the Mid-Atlantic this morning, heading toward Upstate New York or western New England by evening. Along its path will be flooding rains, strong winds, and some tornadoes still to come for places including Philadelphia and New York City.

Behind Isaias

In the Atlantic, we actually have no real disturbances of note behind Isaias. Yes, there is the disturbance dubbed Invest 94L, which is a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda this morning. That one is unlikely to do much and is certainly not a threat to the U.S. There may be a tropical wave that emerges in the Bay of Campeche this weekend, but that is not expected to develop at this time as it likely moves into Mexico.

Meanwhile, off Africa, we are seeing some waves push across the continent and off the coast that look pretty robust.

None of these are expected to develop, but it’s not entirely out of the question that something could develop. Either way, anything emerging off Africa today would be at least 10 to 14 days away from us here, so we couldn’t tell you anything with any specificity anyway. That said, at least for the next week or so, none of these waves appears to be a serious candidate for any kind of meaningful development.

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Good morning! Houston weather will be doing Houston things for the rest of this week, which means you can expect our customary heat and humidity. But given that our weather will neither be exceptionally hot or exceptionally wet in the days ahead, we’ll take that and be happy in August.

Tuesday

This will be another day a lot like Monday, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, at only about 5 mph, out of the west. This should allow high temperatures to nudge up into the mid- or possibly even upper-90s for areas well inland, while remaining several degrees cooler near the coast. As temperatures rise into the 90s, we may see the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the metro area, sagging southward into Houston during the late afternoon or early evening hours. Rain chances are likely about 30 percent, or a tad less.

Wednesday

Expect more of the same conditions as Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid-90s. We will again see a chance for the development of some briefly lived, south-moving showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. As will be the case for most of this week, nighttime lows will barely drop into the 70s for most of the region, with partly cloudy skies. Humidity will be ample, of course.

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Well Houston, we’ve made it to the start of August. Historically this is the hottest, steamiest month of the year, when the average high is 95 degrees, and the average low 75. I look at it like this: If you’re in Houston in August and the high temperature is not in the upper 90s or higher, the streets aren’t flooding, and you’re not concerned about an impending hurricane—it’s a win. August is a month to survive, with the promise of better weather down the road. And hey, two days are already down!

Monday

Some surprisingly robust storms developed north of Interstate 10 on Sunday, and although the atmosphere is slightly less favorable today, we may see some additional development over inland areas this afternoon that moves southward toward I-10. This would start up during the warmest part of the day, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s, and potentially combine with the sea breeze. These isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce briefly heavy winds and rains through the evening. Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny, with calm winds providing no relief during the hottest part of the day. Overnight lows will likely drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

This should be a day similar to Monday, that starts out with sunny skies, but then sees development of storms during the hotter part of the day. Again, aerial coverage should be about 30 percent. High temperatures will likely reach into the upper 90s for inland areas, and a few degrees cooler along the coast.

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In summertime, few things are coveted more in Houston than a cold front, and as we flip the calendar from July to August, we’re going to get just that. Now, don’t get too excited. It is not really going to translate into opening the windows and letting the gloriousness flow.

Rather, this will probably bring us some rain chances, perhaps some strong storms today, and maybe a tinge less humidity than we’ve had late this week. But beyond that? Not much. We never really, truly cool off. Let’s go through the details

Today & tonight

For the most part, today looks fine. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, along with very hot weather. Look for mid-90s and high humidity. Rain chances in Houston and points south should be confined to primarily just a passing downpour. During the afternoon, we expect showers and storms to fire up between Dallas and Huntsville. Those storms will drop into the northern third of the metro area by late afternoon, with places like Conroe or The Woodlands or northwest Harris County standing the best chance at storms before 5 to 7 PM or so.

Storms today do have the potential to be strong to severe, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather or anything like that.Strong, gusty winds and hail would be the main risks from the strongest storms.

The front will slip into metro Houston tonight. The strongest storms should begin to ease up a bit after sunset, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see some noisy storms with locally heavy rain moving through the I-10 corridor and just south through late evening and toward midnight. We should see storms generally dissipate after midnight, but if they were to continue going, it would areas south of Houston most likely to see them.

Saturday

With showers and storms generally expected to diminish overnight, we think Saturday will start mostly quiet. However, if there are some morning showers or rumbles of thunder, they would likely be close to the coast or well south of Houston toward Matagorda Bay.

I have to be honest here: Given recent model performance of late, there is still see some uncertainty in exactly how things may transpire tomorrow. But in general, look for some additional showers and storms to fire up along what is left of the cold front south of Houston (Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, and Jackson Counties most likely) before it dissipates. Additionally, there could be some storms that fire to the west of Houston Saturday afternoon, perhaps near the Katy area north toward Waller and Grimes Counties.For the city of Houston and points north, much of tomorrow could be a quiet and fairly pleasant summer day. But I would not place rain chances at zero. Highs will be in the low-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday

Sunday’s forecast is a bit tricky as well. The front should have basically lost any definition and fallen apart by Saturday night and Sunday morning. But there will likely still be enough of a “trigger” for thunderstorms around. However, with atmospheric moisture generally on the wane, we suspect Sunday’s storm coverage and rainfall intensity will be less than we see on Saturday. All that said, I would probably take a more pessimistic stance on Sunday than what models are explicitly showing right now (which isn’t very much in the way of rain). So let’s expect scattered storms and hope for better on Sunday.

Sunday’s high will top off in the low-90s with storms, mid-90s with only a handful of them, and we’ll see morning lows in the 70s.

Total rainfall this weekend? Some may see locally heavy rain that could add up to an inch or two or even more. Others may not see much of any rain at all. And still more of us will see something in between, closer to a tenth or quarter-inch. The map above should just give you a rough idea of where the heaviest rain could fall.

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