By some definitions, we have reached spring. (Meteorologists mark the beginning of spring on March 1). Astronomically speaking, however, winter does not end until later this month, with the Vernal Equinox on March 19.

What we can definitively say here is that Houston is most definitely transitioning into full-on spring weather, especially beginning next week. More on that below. But before we jump into the forecast, let’s take a quick look back at the region’s mild winter—anywhere from the 6th to 18th warmest depending on where you live. Of particular note: Houston Hobby had zero days below freezing, but eight days with temperatures of 80 degrees or above.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 50s, and we should see mostly cloudy skies clear out by around noon. Winds today will be noticeable out of the north, gusting perhaps to around 25 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach about 70 degrees under sunny skies.

For this evening, and the Becky G concert at the rodeo, we should see winds falling back as the sun sets, but not going away. With temperatures in the low 60s, falling into the upper 50s after the show, there will be a bit of chill in the air. No rain concerns, of course.

Friday

Lows Friday morning will begin in the upper 40s for most. Sunshine will prevail on Friday, but we’re going to see winds pick back up out of the north at 5 to 15 mph. Highs will likely crest at about 70 degrees again, making for a nice spring time day.

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Coastal fog is driving down visibilities this morning, and we’re going to have one more day in this warm, soupy weather before a cold front clears things out and brings several days of fine sunshine to the region. We’re monitoring today and tonight for the possibility of storms, but again we think the worst of this system will likely pass mostly north of the metro area.

Wednesday

There’s a pretty strong line of thunderstorms shown on the radar image above, but the models suggest a movement that should keep most, if not all of the stronger thunderstorms north of the Houston region, including Montgomery County. As a result, we expect today to be a cloudy day, with a good chance of rainfall lingering into the evening hours. I’d expect accumulations of perhaps one-half inch or more (if you’re unlucky enough to get hit by one of the few thunderstorms) north of Interstate 10, with less closer to the coast. Highs will reach near 80 degrees before a front slowly moves in to drop temperatures in the 50s overnight.

For the rodeo this evening, we expect rain chances to fall off around sunset, so while we can’t guarantee dry weather, more likely than not there won’t be too many rain drops. Temperatures will drop into the upper 60s this evening, with light winds. The stronger winds associated with the front probably won’t arrive until after midnight.

Thursday

Skies should become partly to mostly sunny some time on Thursday morning, with the potential for gusts of around 20mph. These winds should die down a bit later in the day, with high temperatures probably pushing up to around 70 degrees.

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We’re going to have a pair of warm and potentially wet days this week before a cool front arrives on Wednesday evening to bring sunshine and more seasonable weather back to the area. We’re still eyeing the possibility of storms Tuesday night and Wednesday, but we’re not overly concerned as we expect the system to weaken as it approaches Houston.

Tuesday

You’ve got two choices for weather today: Gray and humid, or humid and gray. Some areas near the coast are seeing foggy conditions, and that should burn off later this morning. We’ll be left with a cloudy day, high temperatures near 80 degrees, and increasingly moist air. But it seems likely that rain showers will, for the most part, hold off until at least the overnight hours.

If you’re heading out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo’s opening night, you probably don’t need sleeves. Temperatures this evening should remain in the low 70s, with only light winds from the southeast. A smattering of light rain is possible, but our guess is that you’ll remain dry.

Wednesday

An upper-level low pressure system will push through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the models are all over the place in terms of rainfall. They’re struggling with the fact that while there is a fair amount atmospheric moisture, a capping inversion may prevent widespread showers and thunderstorms. At a best guess, I think most of the area probably will see a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall, but its certainly possible that northern areas (likely north of The Woodlands) could get 1 to 3 inches, and southern areas little to no rain at all. A front arrives Wednesday afternoon or evening to begin to cool us down.

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Good morning. It’s quite warm this morning, and after several days of mostly sunny skies a thicker cloud deck has streamed in from the west during the overnight hours. Here’s what this building cloud deck looks like on satellite.

The clouds, warmer weather, and healthy rain chances will be with us through Wednesday before a cold front moves through and clears us out. We’re watching for a risk of strong thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday during the daytime, but right now our concerns for the Houston area are not too great.

Monday

Today should be most gray and warm, with highs in the upper 70s despite cloudy skies. Expect light winds out of the south. Rain chances are probably around 10 percent for most of the area, with anything that falls likely being light. Lows Monday night will only drop into the upper 60s for most of Houston, with the possibility of some fog early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

By Tuesday our atmosphere will be more moist, and will support the kind of lifting required for rainfall. However, for the most part Tuesday should be similar to Monday with just a bit more widespread light (misty?) rainfall that should not provide any accumulations. Temperatures Tuesday will again be in the upper 70s. If you’re heading out to the opening act of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, Midland, we can’t rule out the possibility of some light rain but we’re not expecting anything too organized. Temperatures will be warm, likely around 70 degrees, during the evening hours.

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