Since the weather is not terribly busy, let’s start with a couple housekeeping items today. First, the National Weather Service surveyed the damage from Wednesday’s tornado in Onalaska yesterday. They found that a tornado traveled from at least near Waterwood, on the west side of Lake Livingston through at least Barnes, in northeast Polk County.

That’s a little over 30 miles, though it could change as more reports are examined. The survey team found mostly EF-1 and EF-2 damage in Onalaska, but they did find low-end EF-3 damage in Paradise Acres, just north of Highway 190 on the northeast shore of Lake Livingston. Maximum winds were estimated to be 140 mph.

We’ll update if any new significant findings emerge.

One of the other issues we have had that we’ve touched on from time to time, is dry weather. The latest drought monitor from yesterday shows the northern side of the Houston area mostly drought free, but steadily increasing drought conditions as you go south of the city.

The entire Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, which has been dominated by a ridge of high pressure for most of the winter and spring, is under some kind of abnormally dry or drought condition. Until that stagnant pattern can break or the daily afternoon thunderstorms of summer fire up, we will probably continue to see most organized storms pass us by to the north. We will keep tabs on things and let you know if that does change of course.

Alright, onto the forecast.

Friday

Most areas are crystal clear this morning, but some patchy fog has shown up in a couple spots. Either way, that will clear and we should expect mostly sunshine today with highs making a run for 90° this afternoon.

As a cold front begins to approach the area this evening, it could be carrying some thunderstorms. Areas north of Houston, unfortunately, stand the best chance of seeing these. Those storms could be locally strong to severe north of Houston, but they should be quick moving and the main threats would be isolated damaging wind or hail. Storms should begin to weaken as they approach Houston, and the most likely areas to see rain this evening would be along or east of I-45.

Bottom line: With a cold front approaching this evening, don’t be shocked to see a little rain or hear some thunder for an hour or two.

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Good morning. Storms passed to the north of Houston on Wednesday evening, and the severe weather produced one particularly strong tornado that touched down just north of Huntsville and Livingston, striking the community of Onalaska hard. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service will investigate the location today to determine the intensity of the tornado and its path.

Local residents described the tornado as “devastating,” and at least three people were killed. As most of us went to bed last night, this small community was looking for lost people, assessing injuries, and finding temporary shelter outside their damaged or destroyed homes. Tornadoes this strong in the greater Houston region are rare, but possible. The following image shows the storm’s path as indicated by rotation on radar.

The entire Houston metro area will now settle into a much more sedate weather pattern, with sunny weather for days and days.

Thursday

A cool front is moving into Houston this morning, and this will help drop moisture levels today. This, in turn should help to clear skies by mid- to late-morning. Light winds will blow out of the north. This afternoon, high temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-80s under sunny skies. As the sun dips toward the horizon tonight, we’ll be in for a real treat as the drier air allows temperatures to drop into the 70s and then 60s overnight.

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Houston will see the threat of severe weather this afternoon and early evening as a storm system moves through the region, ahead of a cool front. After this we expect several days of dry, sunny weather to dominate the region. It will be warm, but not too warm for late spring, with some reasonably cool nights this weekend.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Unlike Monday and Tuesday, however, we won’t experience much if any clearing skies later today. Instead, the region will see an increasing chance of storms. The bigger threat lies north of the metro area, over areas such as Lufkin and Waco, but almost the entire Houston region faces a “slight” chance of hail and damaging winds. The rain chances with this storm system are pretty meager for Houston, especially areas south of Interstate 10, as the capping inversion may prove unbreakable. That’s unfortunate, because there are a lot of dry areas such as Brazoria County that could use some precipitation and probably won’t get much, if any with this system.

Thursday

A secondary, thin and broken line of showers may pass through the area early Thursday before sunrise along with the cool front itself. In its wake, we should see clearing skies and highs in the mid-80s on Thursday. Lows will drop into the mid-60s.

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The good news is that if you enjoyed Monday’s weather we have plenty more days like that this week—warm, but not too warm, with lots of sunshine. Wednesday will be the only real exception to that. Our weekend weather also looks pretty fine if you’re looking for sunshine and drier air.

Tuesday

Any patchy fog this morning should burn off quickly, and like on Monday we should see a transition to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. However, with winds turning to come from the southeast later today we expect clouds to return pretty quickly this evening to make for mostly cloudy skies. Highs today should reach the low 80s for most people, with low temperatures Tuesday night falling to around 70 in the city—lower inland, and warmer along the coast.

Wednesday

This is the one day this week the potential for some dynamic weather. An upper-level storm system will drop down toward Texas on Wednesday, but the effects look to be most pronounced for north and east Texas, with the Houston metro area on the southern periphery of the action. Models suggest that a mass of showers and thunderstorms will move through Houston during the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday, with the better organization north of Interstate 10. Areas such as Montgomery County and points north may see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, while much of the rest of the region sees a few tenths of an inch or less. Highs Wednesday will be around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

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