After chilly start today, focus turns to mid-week rainfall

Good morning. Northern areas of Houston are seeing a light freeze this morning, but for the most part regional temperatures have remained in the mid- to upper-30s. We’re going to have one more sunny day before the clouds and potentially some heavy rain returns Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Tuesday

Winds are calm this morning, but will shift to come from the east this morning, and this should help begin the process of returning some clouds and moisture to our skies. Still, today should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s. By this evening, and during the overnight hours, expect mostly cloudy skies to build over the area, as lows generally fall into the 40s for most of Houston.

NOAA rainfall forecast for now through Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday through Thursday morning

Wednesday will start out mostly cloudy, and high temperatures will climb to about 60 degrees. However, during the day the upper atmosphere will gradually become more disturbed as an upper-level storm system approaches our area and a segment of the jet stream accelerates—with the net effect of forcing air at the surface to rise. This, combined with increasing moisture levels, will lead to a chance of moderate-to-heavy rainfall Wednesday evening through about sunrise on Thursday. Most of the area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, which is manageable, but we’re concerned about Matagorda and Southern Brazoria counties which are already sodden from rainfall associated with Saturday’s front. There is a risk that some areas, especially near the coast, receive upwards of 2 to 3 inches with this system.

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A pair of cool days before a wet Wednesday in Houston

The forecast for this week is fairly straightforward. We’ll see a pair of cool and sunny days to start out, followed by widespread rain showers on Wednesday, before a cool and sunny weekend. As the region has has a relatively dry winter, the mid-week rainfall should help with the abnormally dry conditions for much of the Houston region—Galveston, Chambers, and Orange counties excepted.

MLK Day

It is clear and cold this morning, with freezing conditions on the far northern reaches of the Houston metro area, in places such as Huntsville, and lows of about 40 degrees in the city itself. With light northerly winds today, continued cold air advection will offset a mostly sunny day, and keep high temperatures at about 60 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will likely be a few degrees colder than Sunday night due to very light winds. This should allow for a more widespread, light freeze over areas such as Montgomery County.

Monday night low temperatures. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Another sunny, cool day with highs of around 60 degrees. By the late morning or afternoon, winds should shift around to come from the east, and along with building cloud cover this should help to moderate overnight temperatures, keeping them in the 40s for most of the region.

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Someone toss a coin to the Witcher to kill this monstrous humidity

Slightly cooler air has worked its way into most of the region from the northeast, as a weak front that has dissipated across the region. This has helped to mitigate the formation of fog—but don’t worry we’re expecting a return of fog this evening. Cooler, dryer weather finally arrives on Saturday evening, in the wake of a stronger front.

Friday

We’re seeing the development of some very light showers across the region this morning, and this pattern should slowly fizzle throughout the day. Effectively, this means we’ll see a mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees and of course our old friend humidity. As mentioned, sea fog should develop this evening and during the overnight hours with just light winds and lows only on the upper 60s for the most part.

We anticipate only light rain with Saturday’s front. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring more of the same before a cold front sweeps through from northwest to southeast. Winds will shift to come from the north by or before sunset in central Houston, and the front itself should move off the coast by early evening. A thin, broken line of showers could accompany the front, with falling dewpoints and temperatures. This will bring an end to the split pea soup weather Houston has had for nearly a week—good riddance.

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Houston sets heat records, but winter’s return is coming

Good morning. If you thought Wednesday was warm, you are correct. According to records kept by the National Weather Service, all four of the region’s major data recording sites set heat records for both daytime highs and nighttime minimums. The entire area, with the exception of the immediate coast, also saw its first 80-degree day of the year.

(National Weather Service)

Thursday

In addition to the anomalous warmth, the story this morning is the continuation of widespread, dense fog. After the fog clears later this morning, we’ll be left with a cloudy, warm day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. That weak front is still coming, and still going to dissipate somewhere along a line from the northern part of Montgomery County to Beaumont, so most of Houston is unlikely to see any effect except for some scattered showers—mostly north of Interstate 10. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler, dropping down into the mid-60s for most of the area.

Friday

More of the same. After the fog lifts, look for mostly cloudy weather with perhaps a 20 percent chance of light showers and highs in the 70s. And so ends the grayest, muggiest work week so far of 2020. Let’s hope it retains the title for awhile.

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