Tropical moisture will surge into Texas this weekend

Cooler and significantly wetter weather remains on tap for the weekend—at this point Sunday looks like the wettest day—but with a disorganized tropical system moving into Mexico we don’t see any signal yet for widespread, significant flooding. So we’re watchful, but not overly concerned at this point. If you’ve been following along with Matt’s updates this week, you pretty much know what to expect.

Thursday and Friday

Houston endured highs of 97 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, and that trend should pretty much continue to end the work week. Warm days will be punctuated with isolated to scattered showers, some of which can be intense as we saw with some storms near Tomball on Wednesday evening. But for the most part, conditions will just be hot and partly to mostly sunny.

Tropical disturbance

We continue to think the tropical disturbance now moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, which will move westward into the Bay of Campeche and likely into northern Mexico, will not develop. That means that the primary threat from the system remains tropical moisture, which should spread into Texas this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical disturbance a 0 percent chance of developing during the next 2 days, and a 10 percent chance the next 5 days. (National Hurricane Center)

The key question is where the greatest amount of moisture will surge inland, and unfortunately we can’t say this with any precision. Will it be Houston? Beaumont? Victoria? We just can’t tell you yet. With that in mind, here’s our best stab at forecast conditions for this weekend.

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Answering Houston’s weekend rain questions

Today, we’ll walk you through the forecast once more. Toward the end, I have tried to ask and answer the most common questions folks would have about the upcoming rain event this weekend. I think you’ll find most of your answers there.

Today through Friday

No changes to the forecast the next few days. Expect more partly to mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-90s. Yes, a few showers or a thunderstorm will be possible on each day, but consider yourself lucky if you receive one. Most of us should remain dry.

Saturday

One of the changes today is that Saturday now looks like our transition day instead of Friday. Precipitable water values, which measure the availability of moisture in the atmosphere, go from about 1.5 inches on Friday to 1.9 inches on Saturday. What does this mean in layman’s terms? It means rain chances should go up a notch. As of right now, Saturday’s rain and storm coverage shouldn’t be terribly significant, but it will be more than we’ve seen lately. Locally heavy downpours could occur Saturday as well. With more clouds and rain, temperatures will ease back a bit, and we may not even hit 90 degrees for a change on Saturday.

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Houston’s heavy rain chances trending up this weekend

A lot going on in weather, so let’s hop to it.

Today through Thursday

Pretty status quo weather the next few days. Expect partly to, at times, mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances will tick up each day just a little bit. Expect maybe just one or two showers today, then perhaps three or four showers tomorrow. You get the idea. Thursday will be the best rain chances of the next three days, but even that should only result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon as it stands right now.

Friday

Friday appears to be our transition day from the pattern we’ve had most of summer so far to the higher moisture and rain chance pattern, influenced heavily by what happens in the Gulf. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with a smattering of afternoon thunderstorms in spots, though still very hit or miss.

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July-like weather continues much of this week

Back to back mid-90s this weekend, though many of us saw showers on Saturday at least. This pattern will continue much of this week before we watch the tropics later in the week from the Gulf. Let’s dive in.

Today through Wednesday

I don’t see a ton of day to day differences between today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for most of the Houston region. Models are mostly not excited about rain chances, but I do think with daily sea breezes kicking up off the Gulf, we should see at least a smattering of a few showers in parts of the area each of the upcoming days. We’ll characterize it as: Most of the time & area will be dry, but if you’re lucky, you may see some showers once or twice through Wednesday.

The NWS Houston rainfall forecast through Wednesday evening is mostly blank. While some of us will see a shower or two, most of us will remain dry. (NWS)

We have a fair bit of cloud cover around this morning, so we’ll call it partly sunny today and a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures will be pretty steady. Expect average high temperatures in the mid-90s (93-96 on average) with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Basically, what’s normal for mid- to late-July.

Thursday & Friday

The forecast beginning Thursday gets a little muddier because of the possible tropical wave in the Gulf (which I discuss in more detail below). But, in general, expect an uptick in atmospheric moisture Thursday afternoon, with a slightly better chance of showers. That continues into Friday. Again, this is nothing too well organized, but rather scattered showers or a chance of storms each afternoon, perhaps at a greater coverage than Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures may back down a couple degrees here with higher rain chances, so we’ll call it low-90s.

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