After an oh-so-very-long summer we are continuing to make progress toward fall in the Houston area. The region’s cold front remains on track for Monday, and the only question at this time appears to be how strong it will be. Looking a bit further ahead, a second front appears likely by the end of next week, signalling that we truly are moving into a fall-like pattern.

Thursday

Alas, summer will hold on for a while longer. Thursday should be mostly hot and sunny with high temperatures in the low 90s. We can’t entirely rule out some isolated to scattered showers, but most of the region will indeed be dry. It’s going to be another muggy night, where most of the region fails to drop out of the upper 70s. Yeah, we’re tired of those kinds of nights, too.

Friday

A similar story will play out on Friday, although rain chances may step up to about 20 percent by the evening hours as a cold front stalls out well north of Houston. Look for high temperatures again in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

It should be a hot and mostly sunny weekend for the Houston metro area. On the plus side, if you were looking for one more really warm beach or pool weekend—and the last 4,382 this summer haven’t been enough—you’re in luck. It’s going to be warm, with highs generally in the 90 to 93-degree range. Nights may be a shade cooler than we’ve seen, with some slightly drier air backing into the region. Rain chances will be near zero until Sunday night.

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Good morning. October has begun like September ended—hot. However there is now strong confidence in the arrival of a cold front early next week, probably Monday evening or night, that will bring substantially drier and cooler air into the region. We’ll discuss just how cool below.

Wednesday

This will be another warm day for the region, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s to possibly mid-90s for far inland areas. With rising moisture levels, we will likely see some scattered shower development south of Interstate 10 before noon, which should migrate north during the afternoon hours. These storms should produce light to moderate rainfall, and keep moving. Skies otherwise will be mostly sunny.

Thursday

This should be another day like Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies and some scattered showers.

Friday

As high pressure backs off somewhat, temperatures on Friday should maybe hold at “only” about 90 degrees. Skies should remain mostly sunny, with rain chances of perhaps 10 to 20 percent.

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Weather-wise, this past September was pretty terrible. There were the floods of Tropical Storm Imelda, which were especially terrible north and east of the Houston metro area. Then there was the heat: Highs were 98 degrees, or above, for the first eight days above, and overall this was by far Houston’s warmest September on record. Finally, the region saw no cool fronts to bring down overnight temperatures, so it remained hot and muggy throughout the month.

Although this region has had worse extreme weather during past Septembers—such as the landfalls of the Great Storm of 1900 and Hurricane Ike in 2008—I would argue that end-to-end this has been the worst overall September weather in Houston. Good riddance. Fortunately, October promises to be better with a cool front likely in about one week’s time.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The heat continues. With Houston falling under the influence of high pressure the region will continue to see hot and mostly sunny days and warm, humid nights. Expect high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday to reach 90 degrees, or warmer, for inland areas. Nights will be extra sticky, with lows for much of the region only falling into the upper 70s. Rain chances remain near zero, except possibly for a few isolated areas near Matagorda Bay.

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Good morning. Houston’s summer-lite weather will continue for most of this week, with warm days and nights. Rain chances will be low for most of the week, given the presence of high pressure. We’re still waiting for that first cool front. As you can see from our cold front graphic below, anything after October 7th would set a record for the latest first fall front since the official monitoring station was moved to Houston’s Intercontinental Airport in 1969. A front appears to be in the cards “soon,” perhaps even by that date. More on that below.

Monday

Atmospheric moisture levels are fairly high over the Coastal Bend area of Texas this morning, so areas near and around Matagorda Bay could see some rain storms today. But most of the Houston metro area, including Harris and surrounding counties, should remain dry today. Expect partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the low 90s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

More of the same, as high pressure over the southern United States expands eastward a little bit. We can’t entirely rule out some streamer showers, but again these should be mostly dry (which is not to say not humid) days. Highs around 90 degrees for most, with warmer temperatures possible for well inland areas.

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