The weekend went about as advertised across southeast Texas with heat and humidity and a distinct lack of rain showers most of the time. We generally topped off in the mid-90s, with warm mornings. Much of this week is likely to play out in a similar fashion. It’s the end of the week when things get more difficult and possible forecast outcomes vary vastly as we will explain below.

Today & Tuesday

We expect both days to carry over the weekend weather: Expect sunshine and hot temperatures. An isolated shower can’t entirely be ruled out, but consider yourself lucky if you see one. We should do mid-90s today and middle to even upper-90s tomorrow.

Take your usual heat precautions the next couple days, as heat index values should top off around 105°, and a few places may flirt with heat advisory criteria.

Wednesday & Thursday

Forecast confidence begins to slump backwards a bit for midweek. As of now, Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday, with mid- to upper-90s and high humidity, sunshine, and limited to nil rain chances. Thursday becomes more challenging. The disturbance to our east in the Gulf of Mexico will determine if we again reach for the upper-90s with dry weather or if we do low- to mid-90s and increasing scattered shower chances. We should hopefully have some clarity on this tomorrow.

See full post

As promised, things quieted down nicely on the Fourth after some morning fireworks. This time of year, it’s always difficult to say whether it’s good news or bad news to have “nice” weather for an extended stretch. Those cooling showers can be welcome in midsummer, but we will be void of them almost completely through the weekend. Stick with us til the end of today’s post as we will discuss some possible tropical mischief in the Gulf for late next week.

Today & weekend

Basically, if you have outdoor plans this weekend, your only concern will be heat. Expect sunshine in heaping quantities today, tomorrow, and Sunday. A shower is always possible in summer, but almost all of us should be dry through the weekend. We will see high temperatures in the mid-90s and lows bottoming out in the mid-70s the next few days. Humidity, as it always is in summer, will be high across the region. So, just take it easy and stay hydrated this weekend.

Monday & Tuesday

We will probably see an extension of this dry, sunny, hot pattern into early next week. Expect ample sunshine and only very, very minor shower chances Monday and Tuesday. We will call it more mid-90s both days with mid- to upper-70s for lows.

Yeah, it looks pretty dry the next 5 days.

See full post

The overall pattern remains more or less the same. We’re going to have one more potentially wet day—although as we saw Tuesday, these showers are most definitely hit or miss—before things begin to dry out on the Fourth of July and then remain that way for awhile.

Wednesday

We’re still feeling the effects of tropical moisture pushing in from the Gulf of Mexico, and some of the high-resolution models are fairly bullish on rain totals for today. But at the same time, there’s no significant forcing to really generate sustained, heavy rainfall. So I think like we saw Tuesday, there may be a few isolated areas that see 3 inches of rain, but for the most part, most of the city should see 1 inch of rain or less. In any case, the biggest threat is probably some brief street flooding. We’ve got one more day with potential highs in the 80s before Houston begins to experience more typical summertime heat.

Fourth of July

Rain chances for Houston will fall down to below 20 percent, but we can’t entirely rule out some daytime showers. An atmospheric disturbance will linger north of the region, so areas along and north of Texas 105 may see better rain chances during the daytime. With partly sunny skies, highs probably will get into the low 90s for most of Houston. Almost everyone should see partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 80s, and no rain for fireworks.

See full post

With a moist moist airmass moving inland on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, we can expect elevated rain chances for a couple of days before high pressure settles in over the region. From July 4th through much of next week, Houston should see serene, hot, and sunny weather.

Tuesday

It’s a sultry morning, as one might expect during early July in Houston, with lows only in the upper 70s. The radar should remain fairly sedate until around 11am or noon, when the combination of daytime heating and those increased moisture levels start to produce fairly widespread, moderate-to-strong thunderstorms. Most of the area will probably see less than 1 inch of rain today, but there probably will be some bullseyes that receive 2 to 3 inches. Favored areas are probably south of Interstate 10, with perhaps the heaviest rain focused on Brazoria County. We’re always a little concerned about the potential with this kind of tropical moisture during the summer months, but as of now there don’t appear to be any forcings to really produce sustained, heavy rainfall that could lead to more than brief street flooding.

Storms should wind down from 6pm to 9pm with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures today will either be in the upper 80s or low 90s, depending on the extent of rain for your area.

Wednesday

This should be a similar day to Tuesday, albeit with perhaps a bit less coverage. I’ll feel more confident in Wednesday’s forecast after we see what happens on Tuesday.

See full post