Quiet spring break appears ahead for Houston

Good morning! I want to start with a couple housekeeping items today.

Edit: One of our readers has provided a good explanation for the below that confirms the source of Thursday’s smoke was local, not from Oklahoma. See the comments below for his explainer. For the sake of transparency, I’ve left the original post in tact.

First, the smoke yesterday. We got a couple comments and tweets about it. The unfortunate answer is that we really don’t know for sure where it came from. The going theory is that it probably came from some unknown local source. Certainly possible, but I have a sneaky suspicion it could be because of fires and controlled burns in Oklahoma. If you ran a backwards trajectory on the air mass over Houston yesterday back 48 hours (in other words, where was the air over Houston yesterday 48 hours prior?), our air came from the northern Rockies, traveled across Oklahoma and North Texas, and eventually sank to the surface near Houston.

Yesterday afternoon’s air over Texas may have picked up smoke over Oklahoma as it came south and lowered to the surface in Houston, bringing the smoke with it. (NOAA)

The air mass would have been over Oklahoma and northeast Texas on Wednesday afternoon and evening. I believe there were quite a few controlled burns and a few other fires up in Oklahoma or North Texas then that could have ended up making the trip south with our cooler air. Otherwise, the smoke was indeed from somewhere closer to Houston, but no one really knows for sure. Anyway, I found it interesting and thought I’d share.

And if the smoke wasn’t enough to put a damper on your day yesterday, the pollen count probably was. How bad was it yesterday?

Tree pollen, particularly oak pollen is the league leader in irritating your nose. (City of Houston)

Tree pollen often flares up this time of year. For me, it’s usually a battle between oak and cedar in terms of what can drive me away from outdoor activity. Oak is dominating the board right now and likely will continue to do so for the next few weeks. Oak pollen usually eases up in late March or April. The city of Houston has a pretty good pollen and mold count site I recommend for bookmarking. You can also examine historical data too.

On to the forecast.

Today & Saturday

We’ll start out with sun and some clouds today. I expect clouds to gradually thicken up as the day goes on. I wouldn’t be shocked to hear about a few sprinkles or showers southwest of Houston this afternoon. It’ll be warmer and gradually turn more humid today. Look for highs in the lower 70s. A disturbance passing by overnight should touch off at least some scattered showers or a rumble of thunder. The best chance of this would be south of I-10. Look for mid-60s overnight, and total rainfall ranging from nothing to a few tenths of an inch overall.

On Saturday, there will continue to be a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two around in the morning. As of right now, we expect the afternoon to be mostly quiet. A shower or two is possible, but the atmosphere over Houston will likely be capped, meaning showers and storms will have a tough time developing. It will probably still be a mostly cloudy day with a few sunny breaks at times. You should be able to go about most plans with scant interruption tomorrow. Highs on Saturday will peak around or above 80 degrees.

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Houston’s next cold front arrives on Sunday

Chilly temperatures have descended across the greater Houston area this morning, with lows generally in the 40s and 50s. This drier air will begin to exit the region as a more moist flow replaces it. This will lead to a general warming trend through Saturday, before the next cold front arrives on Sunday. As discussed on Wednesday, the week of Spring Break still looks pretty fine.

It’s cold in Texas this morning, but not freezing like in some neighboring states. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

The region will see partly sunny skies today, with high temperatures likely in the upper 60s. Some clouds are mixing into our skies, too, and this trend should persist later today as the onshore flow reestablishes itself. Low temperatures tonight will probably be in the 50s for most of Houston, and warmer along the coast.

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Spring Break likely to feel spring-like, and be mostly sunny

It’s a cool morning across the Houston region, with temperatures ranging from the mid-40s up north to the upper-50s on Galveston Island and right along the coast. Wednesday night should be even chillier across the region before a warm-up heading into the weekend. We’ll also take a look at the Spring Break forecast for Houston.

Wednesday

Clear, cool, and sunny with a high in the upper 60s. As additional dry and cool air works its way into Houston today, we’ll have a colder night, and I expect low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s for inland areas, and mid-40s in most of the city. Definitely a fireplace night!

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

Another nice, mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 60s. We can’t rule out a few clouds as the onshore flow likely resumes sometime later in the day. Nighttime temperatures will probably be about 10 degrees warmer than on Wednesday—so cool, but not cold.

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Short and sweet update as pleasant weather invades Houston

The cold front has moved off the coast this morning, and rain showers are following suit, with the bulk of the rain likely fully offshore by mid-morning. If they’re not already, skies will be clearing out today bringing some lovely, spring-like weather to the region for the next several days.

Tuesday

Cooler air will move into Houston later today, but highs should reach the lower 70s before it does so. Winds will be modest out of the northwest, and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures tonight to fall to around 40 degrees for far inland areas, and mid-50s along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

Very nice weather continues, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s for the most part. Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks to be the coldest of the week, with far inland areas possibly seeing the upper 30s, and most of Houston solidly in the low- to mid-40s. By Thursday night conditions should be about 10 degrees warmer as some clouds are likely to move in during the overnight hours.

Friday

As the onshore flow resumes, we’ll begin to warm up, and humidity levels rise. Skies should still be partly sunny, with highs in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

We can’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves in, but I think only 20 or 30 percent of the region will see rain. Expect cloudy skies and highs near 80. Another front should push into the area on Sunday, and right now I’m expecting partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-70s. All in all, the second half of the weekend looks nicer than the start at this point.