Congratulations, Houston. We’ve reached the longest day of the year—14 hours, 3 minutes, and 30 seconds. From this point on, days will very slowly get shorter as the Northern Hemisphere begins to tilt away from the Sun. In six months, our day length will be just 10 hours, 14 minutes, and 3 seconds.
Houston has just 6 hours, 44 minutes of true night at this time of year. (timeanddate.com)
Of course Houston doesn’t reach the peak of summer for another five weeks, with the warmest period typically coming from late July through the first half of August. This is due in large part to weather patterns, and a lag in heating of the Gulf of Mexico, which always modifies our region’s weather when the winds are blowing onshore (cooling us during this time of year, and warming us in the winter). Bottom line? We’ve begun the march toward fall, but it’s still a long, long ways away.
Lots of heat in West Texas on Friday. (Pivotal Weather)
Friday
Speaking of summer, we’ll feel it today, with highs in the mid-90s and high humidity pushing the heat index into “heat advisory” levels out there. With partly sunny skies, please avoid being outdoors during the middle of the day if possible. Temperatures tonight will not cool much, only falling to around 80 degrees.
Good morning. Northern parts of the metro area may be clipped by fast-moving thunderstorms this morning—Conroe and areas north—but by far the biggest story of the day will be heat. The National Weather Service has issued a “heat advisory,” indicating that the heat index will reach 106 to 111 degrees. This essentially means that the temperature in the shade, when factoring in humidity, will feel much warmer than the actual temperature in the mid- to upper-90s. If you’re in the sunshine, the effect will be even more pronounced.
Heat advisory for Thursday with “heat index” temperatures. (National Weather Service)
Thursday
Aside from the heat, and partly sunny skies on Thursday, southerly winds may gust up to 20 mph across the area, reflecting higher pressures to the south and lower pressures over the continental United States. These winds are not reflected in the heat advisory temperature above, but may provide some limited cooling despite the high humidity today. All in all, however, it will be a hot summer day in Houston, with highs ranging from the mid- to upper-90s. The other notable factor will be nighttime temperatures that likely don’t fall below 80 degrees on Thursday night or the next few nights.
Friday
This will be another warm and windy day, although highs probably will top out in the lower to mid-90s. Skies will be partly sunny.
Houston has enjoyed some moderately cooler weather over the last week or so, and the official high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not risen to 95 degrees or above since June 9. Well, it’s about time to go back into the frying pan. Also, if you missed Matt’s tropical update on Tuesday, I encourage you to check it out, as it provides an overview of what we’re looking at over the next few weeks.
Wednesday
Highs today should be in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine. The atmosphere remains fairly moist, so it will be quite humid as well. Looking further afield, strong thunderstorms are possible in the Dallas-Fort Worth area later today or tonight, along with supercells that could produce tornadoes. Conditions are not perfect for such storms, but there’s an “enhanced” environment according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. So if you’re traveling north today, bear that in mind.
Strong storms are possible in the Dallas-Fort Worth area today. (NOAA)
This line of storms should sag south tonight, but forecast modeling indicates that it will peter out as it moves into counties well north of Houston, and likely die completely before reaching Montgomery County. Mostly, the Houston area can just expect a partly cloudy, warm night with low temperatures only falling to around degrees. That’s downright sultry.
Eric and I had a conversation this spring to discuss some new ideas for the site, and ways to help readers navigate hurricane season. We absolutely feel people’s uneasiness every time it rains here, and a general sensitivity to the rumor and speculation that springs to life during hurricane season. So we have decided that every week or two, we will publish a more in-depth outlook for tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico so that you understand what’s happening, and what could happen in the next couple weeks.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
Tropical development is unlikely over the next week or so across the Atlantic Basin, but we are eyeing July for a possible increase in activity.
Near-term summary
Historically, we would watch the Bay of Campeche and Gulf this time of year for development.
Historically, storms have formed in the Gulf and Bay of Campeche in the final third of June. (NOAA/NHC)
As of now, no tropical activity is expected over the next week, as conditions should remain mostly unfavorable for storms to develop in those areas and elsewhere.
Looking at satellite imagery from Tuesday morning, we have a couple tropical waves moving across the eastern Caribbean and a couple disorganized waves elsewhere.
The tropics show a few disorganized disturbances and mostly calm conditions today. (College of DuPage)
None of these waves is a candidate for development as of right now, and if anything, they should fizzle out and stay safely away. So: Good news, as we just don’t see much of anything out there.
Weather model fantasy-land
One of the biggest hurdles to good tropical information during hurricane season in the social media era is a tendency for folks to mention a model solution with zero context or just because it shows something extreme. You’ll see something like, “This model is just one solution but it shows a category 10 hurricane in the Gulf in 15 days! You probably shouldn’t believe it, but here it is anyway.”
Is there anything showing up on the models in days 10-15? Not at this time. The GFS model, which is the most frequent offender with fantasy-land storms is quiet right now. The GFS tends to have a bias early in the hurricane season, and then again later in the hurricane season. The bias is worst in May and early June, where it can often spin up systems in the Caribbean that never materialize. I tried to run the math on it last season, and during the month of May 2018, 79% of the time the GFS showed a storm beyond day 10, it never materialized.
Now, the GFS model was recently upgraded which should hopefully lead to reduced false alarms, but we won’t know much about that in practice until next May. Within the season, it still seems to show more false alarms than not, and Eric and I try to sort through the noise for you. Let this just serve as a reminder to be cautious of extreme modeled solutions posted on social media without much context.
