Barry stays east but rains could impact coastal Texas this weekend

The forecast today will be one of heat, followed by a somewhat uncertain outlook this weekend. Let’s walk through things, and then we will touch on Louisiana and Barry.

Today

The expectation right now is that today will be a mostly dry day in Houston. That said, I cannot entirely rule out some showers late this afternoon coming in off the Gulf along the coast or out of Louisiana for folks east of I-45. As long as it stays mostly dry though, it’s going to be awfully hot once again today. We should make a run for the upper-90s.

It’s going to be very hot today, even along the coast, where offshore flow will limit a cooling sea breeze. (NWS via Weather Bell)

Heat advisory criteria may come close to being met in parts of the area, so if you’ll be outdoors, please take it easy. Also, keep that in mind if you’ll be on the beach today, as high temperatures in Galveston will likely make a run for the mid-90s with mostly offshore winds.

Tonight

Given the somewhat erratic nature of storms around Barry (see below), as it begins to approach Louisiana tonight, some of the outer fringe that has been fairly supportive of occasional clusters of storms may graze our area. So we will call it partly to mostly cloudy tonight, with a very slight chance of thunderstorms, virtually at anytime. We should know more about those prospects later this afternoon and will update you then.

Saturday

We could have a tale of two types of weather across the Houston area Saturday. For simplicity, we will use I-45 as our dividing line; the reality is it could be more to the east or west of that line, but it works for a generalization. West of I-45 could be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures may approach the mid- to upper-90s again. This would be most likely in places like Navasota, Katy, or Rosenberg. East of I-45 might be susceptible to more outer bands of Barry, which could yield occasional showers and thunderstorms and temperatures more erratic, ranging from the low-80s to mid-90s depending on who sees rain. This would be most likely for places like Galveston, Baytown, or Liberty.

This late afternoon forecast of how radar *might* look on Saturday shows small outer bands of Barry possibly dropping south and west into the area. Rain on Saturday is possible anywhere, but most likely along the coast or east of I-45. (Weather Bell)

The general rule? The more to the east you go or closer to the coast you are, the more likely you will be to see showers or storms. Galveston will see a good chance for at least some storms, so stay lightning aware if you’ll be on the beach. Also keep in mind that any rain could be heavy at times.

See full post

Barry bringing heavy rains, storm surge threat to Louisiana

Just a quick afternoon update to note that the forecast for Tropical Storm Barry has not changed appreciably today. While it shows some signs of getting its act together, the strongest winds remain far from the storm’s center. As of 4pm CT maximum sustained winds are 40mph.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest that either a strongish tropical storm (more likely), or possibly a weak hurricane, will move into Louisiana on Saturday. The primary threat is heavy rains, with the potential for an additional 10 to 20 inches of rainfall across already sodden areas. Of further concern is that the Mississippi River is already swollen due to drainage from flooded Midwestern areas. Finally, there is the threat of storm surge, particularly along the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

In regard to Barry, the greater Houston area should remain in the clear, with only perhaps 40 to 50 percent rain chances this weekend—higher near the coast, lesser inland—and probable accumulations of 1 inch or less. Galveston will be more susceptible to higher winds and thunderstorms this weekend than, say, Katy, but the entire Houston region is likely to lie on the far periphery of Barry’s action. Tides are unlikely to be a significant problem, although rip currents could be problematic.

We’ll have a full update in the morning.

Tropical Storm Barry has formed, bound for Louisiana

We just wanted to offer up a quick update this morning to let you know that Invest 92L, or Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has now been declared officially as Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows a system struggling to consolidate, but it has organized enough to be classified as a tropical storm. (College of DuPage)

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph as of the 10 AM CT National Hurricane Center advisory. The system is still struggling a bit to organize this morning, but now has a better defined center, enough so to be classified as a tropical entity. Most of the storms are displaced to the south and west of the center. Over the next 24 hours, the satellite presentation of Barry should improve, and slow strengthening should commence.

For us in Houston, the good news is that we remain outside the forecast cone, unlikely to see any significant impacts from what should become Tropical Storm Barry.

The National Hurricane Center forecast for Barry was nudged even a bit farther to the east this morning. (NOAA/NHC)

The National Hurricane Center is bringing Barry somewhere between Cameron & New Orleans on Saturday as a category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Watches remain hoisted from Cameron to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Louisiana coast east of Morgan City. For folks in Louisiana, this will be a tropical system, yes, but the main story will probably remain the rains that will fall, regardless if this remains a weak tropical storm or strengthens into moderate or strong tropical storm or hurricane. Those rains will all be capable of producing widespread flooding problems in the eastern half of the state and perhaps in Mississippi, should the storm shift any farther to the east.

Here in Houston, just keep tuned to the forecast, especially if you are traveling anywhere east of the region this weekend. Otherwise, expect some showers and storms to pop up this afternoon or evening. Some of the storms could be locally heavy.

Eric will have more for you later this afternoon.

Tropical system in the Gulf almost a depression, threatens Louisiana

Good morning. As of 4am CT, the system in the Gulf of Mexico has nearly organized into a tropical depression (named Barry), and likely will become one later this morning or early this afternoon. While Texas isn’t entirely out of the woods, as there remains some uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast, this increasingly looks like a threatening situation for Louisiana. Because the state is next to Texas, and we have received so many questions from people living in, or traveling through Louisiana, we will continue to offer comprehensive coverage of Barry as the storm develops. If you’re living in Houston, please continue to pay attention to forecasts for the next couple of days, as tropical weather invariably offers up surprises. However, it’s probably safe to go about your business as usual this weekend.

Satellite image of the tropical system shortly after 3am CT Thursday. (NOAA)

Track

Confidence is increasing in the forecast track for a couple of reasons. First of all, we’re now likely only about 2.5 days away from landfall (likely along the Louisiana coast between Lake Charles and New Orleans), and errors for such a storm are typically less than 100 miles, even given the uncertainty with Barry. Secondly, although Barry has not yet formed a distinct center of circulation, there is nonetheless a decent clustering of ensemble members of the global models around such a solution. So a Louisiana landfall is likely for Barry, but not a certainty.

National Hurricane Center track forecast for the Gulf system as of 4am CT Thursday.

Intensity

Because Barry has not yet organized into a tropical storm, and perhaps only has a couple of days remaining sufficiently offshore, this should help to set a limit on its intensity. The official forecast still brings Barry to minimal Category 1 hurricane status prior to landfall, but confidence isn’t particularly high.

See full post