Reduced flooding concerns for Houston this week

Well, it’s Labor Day in Houston, and unfortunately some outdoor activities are likely to be a washout during the middle of the day. The good news, however, is that our overall concerns about the potential for heavy rainfall during the next seven days have lessened. So let’s discuss conditions today, and then later this week as Tropical Storm Gordon moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Labor Day rains

Houston, so far, has mostly been dry overnight. The heaviest rainfall overnight has come to the east of Houston, from the east side of Galveston Bay to Beaumont and Lake Charles, where there are several flood warnings. This is where the greatest risk will remain this morning, although some of the heavier showers are now pushing into coastal areas south of Houston, including Galveston, and up the Highway 146 corridor into Baytown. High resolution models suggest these showers will fill into more of the Houston area later this morning, and early afternoon, as a broad low-pressure system moves over the area.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for between sunrise Monday and sunrise Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

However, our overall concerns for flooding today remain fairly low in Houston, especially for areas away from the coast and Galveston Bay. Street flooding may be a problem beneath the heavier storms, but for the most part rains will be entirely manageable. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7pm for Houston, but rain chances should fall off later this afternoon—if you’re planning a Labor Day cookout this evening I’d be reasonably confident in good weather—and during most of the overnight hours before scattered to widespread showers return Tuesday. This may bring an additional 1 inch or less of rainfall to the region.

See full post

Latest on Labor Day rains, Tropical Storm nearing Gulf

Overall, not a whole lot has changed since this morning’s update. Even so, we wanted to provide the latest information we have. We’re still watching for the potential of heavy rainfall beginning late tonight, through most of Labor Day; and then the eventual movement of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Gordon into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. While things can change, at this point we don’t anticipate anything too extreme for southeast Texas. This isn’t Harvey. It isn’t Allison. Most likely it’s just some heavy, tropical rains that the region can handle. If our thinking changes, we will most certainly let you know.

Labor Day rainfall

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch from midnight tonight through 7pm Monday. Given the slow-moving nature of a low-pressure system moving from the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, and through the region on Monday, we can probably expect widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches (more likely closer to the coast, and the eastern half of the region).

Sunday afternoon satellite image of low pressure moving into Texas. (NOAA)

For the most part, these rains should be the kinds that lead to street flooding in hard hit areas, but we don’t expect any significant or widespread creek and bayou flooding. I always hesitate to write that with these kinds of air masses, which can produce a lot of rain in a very short time, but as of now there is no strong signal for an extreme rainfall event for Houston.

See full post

Sunday update on this weekend’s heavy rain and the tropical threat

In regard to rainfall and the Houston metro area, we have two separate issues to discuss. There is the potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday; and then the renewed potential for heavy rain toward next weekend, as a tropical disturbance—perhaps Tropical Storm Gordon—brings rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

A satellite image from Sunday morning showing both systems. (NOAA/Space City Weather)

Labor Day Weekend

A weak low pressure system over southern Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the next few days, bringing an excellent chance of rain to the Houston metro area on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The National Weather Service will issue a “Flash Flood Watch,” and there is a general expectation of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas seeing as much as 8 inches. The best chance for heavy rainfall will come on Sunday night, and throughout Labor Day. If you have travel plans on Monday, please to check conditions before venturing out. For the most part we expect street flooding, but can’t rule out some more serious effects in areas where the storms establish themselves and don’t really move.

Synopsis of Labor Day weekend rain. (National Weather Service)

We have reasonable confidence that after this system clears the area, we should see somewhat drier conditions on Wednesday and Thursday for Houston, with partly sunny skies and more scattered showers. Which is a good thing, because …

See full post

Some kind of tropical system likely in the Gulf next week

Houston continues to face the prospect of a wet Labor Day Weekend—but we’re not concerned about anything more than the potential for some street flooding and spoiled outdoor barbecues with intermittent showers and thunderstorms.

However, we did want to update you on the potential for tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Some forecast models have become a little more bullish on low pressure forming in the northern Gulf next week, which could lead to development of a tropical storm. As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm will form during the next five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook. (National Hurricane Center)

There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, and forecast models are having a difficult time resolving them. Of course, everyone will want to know where this will go. However, that’s simply impossible to say without a reasonably well defined low pressure system, and that probably won’t exist for a couple of days.

See full post