It’s a cloudy, misty morning generally in the 50s across Houston this morning, and overall this will be a wet day. Most of the rest of the week, and the weekend, will also be gray although rain chances probably won’t be quite so high as today. If you’re wondering about seeing some sunshine, there’s a bit of hope for Thursday, but Friday is probably the day you’re looking for.

Tuesday

The combination of a warm front moving onshore, nearby low pressure, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels will lead to a day of widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. As we saw on Monday, there is a chance of seeing some small, likely pea-sized hail in the strongest thunderstorms. Most of the region will likely see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain as highs rise into the mid-60s under gray skies. Will it be humid? Oh yes, it will be humid.

Rodeo forecast

On Monday, we saw rain showers diminish as the gates opened at 6pm for NRG Stadium and the Houston’s rodeo. I’m not sure that will happen tonight. It does appear as though the rain will lift north and east of Houston this evening, away from the city, but it’s not clear whether that will happen by sunset, or a little bit after. We’ll therefore carry rain chances of about 40 percent going into the show, and 20 percent after.

Temperatures will be in the low 60s at 6pm, and largely unchanged later on. With dewpoints nearly the same, expect 100 percent humidity. By the way, at the end of today’s post, be sure and check out a special message from Reliant about it’s rodeo-related activities.

Wednesday

Rain chances will be lower on Wednesday, perhaps in the 20 to 30 percent range, as the atmosphere calms down a little bit. Temperatures will reach the 70s, as warmer air moves into the region from the south and southwest, and Wednesday night (mostly if not completely dry) will only fall into the 60s.

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We knew rain and scattered storms were returning to Houston, but frankly we didn’t think they’d come this soon. However, a relatively localized feature, a kink in the atmosphere, is moving up the Texas coast today and it’s driving the development of some storms primarily to the south and southeast of Houston. A few areas are seeing pea and dime-sized hail as a result.

The regional models we use to predict the evolution of these kinds of storms haven’t done a great job of handling their development today, but generally I think they’re going to wane by or before sunset.

The overall forecast remains the same through mid-week, with widespread showers late Monday night and Tuesday producing perhaps 0.25 to 0.5 inch of rain, and more scattered showers on Wednesday. Some additional hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday.

After a stunning Sunday, we’ll now see the return of some clouds today, and as early as tonight some healthy rain chances. Most of this week looks pretty gray, although there’s a chance of sunshine toward the Friday or Saturday period. Unfortunately, the forecast from Thursday on is fairly uncertain at this point.

Monday

Skies remain somewhat clear this morning for parts of Houston, and we’ll see at least partly sunny skies for most of today, as highs warm into the mid-60s across Houston. However, change will be on the way as the high pressure system overhead moves away, and winds begin to return from the east and southeast. With this returning moisture, a few scattered showers will be possible near the coast this afternoon and early evening.

Rodeo forecast

Every weekday for the next three weeks, we’re going to offer Rodeo outlooks for people going to the concert. (Tonight, I’ll be among them, as Mrs. Space City Weather is a big Kasey Musgraves fan.) We’ll see temperatures of about 60 degrees at 6pm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and 10mph easterly winds. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re probably around 10 percent for central Houston. After the show, temperatures will still be in the upper 50s, but the chance of scattered showers will be better, probably closer to 30 percent. Any rain should be light.

Tuesday

This looks like a wet and gray day. Highs will get into the mid- to upper-60s, and the combination of warmer air, low pressure, and ample moisture should lead to on- and off-again (mostly) light to moderate rain showers. All told, accumulations for most should be well under one-half inch, but a some areas may see a bit more. We also can’t rule out a few pockets of hail. The healthy rain chances should persist into Tuesday night, when lows for most won’t fall below 60.

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The good news is that the worst of the weather the next couple days will likely miss the Houston area well to the northeast. The bad news is that we will still have multiple rain chances to contend with through tomorrow before we get on to the good stuff.

Today

While today should not be a washout, there will be plenty of shower activity around. Initially, showers are west of Houston near Katy and north up through Conroe.

As we go into this afternoon, I think we’ll see the focus of these showers shift east of I-45 and north of I-10. Thunderstorms will also be possible, but with the area likely to see some degree of atmospheric capping (“the cap,” as it’s often referred to, which is basically an atmospheric temperature inversion that inhibits thunderstorm growth) I don’t think we will see too much in the way of significant storms. That will be reserved for areas well north of Houston, up toward the ArkLaTex.

Yesterday was cold and drizzly. Today will begin similarly. We should see temps warm a bit further today though and manage at least the upper-60s in Houston, mid-60s in The Woodlands, and low-60s in the Brazos Valley. That being said, sometimes temperatures behave very stubbornly in these types of patterns, so there’s a definite slight chance we don’t get out of the 50s until later tonight. Keep the jacket handy.

For at least the 500th* time this month, fog is pestering the coast this morning once again.
*approximate

Dense fog is likely to hang along the coast and in the bays most of the day today. Exercise caution if you’ll be driving to or from those areas today.

Tonight

We will carry a continued chance of showers through the night, but no heavy activity is expected. It may be more mist or drizzle than anything, with a gradual transition toward showers. Fog will continue in the bays and along the coast, though it could begin to become a little more dispersed at times overnight as winds pick up a bit. Look for temperatures to hold steady or finally rise into the mid- to upper-60s if they haven’t gotten there this afternoon.

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