I hope everyone got through the weekend of Saharan dust without too much trouble. We saw a bit of improvement to air quality on Sunday, and we will see further improvement today and tomorrow. It may be unnoticeable by Tuesday. Then we’ll talk rain.

Today & Tuesday

Other than the lingering dust, today will just be another hot one. Look for highs to top off in the mid-90s in Houston, a bit cooler near the coast and hotter inland. It will be mainly sunny. Tuesday will start off similarly. Expect a few more clouds to roll in during the afternoon however. There may be a shower or storm around east of I-45 later in the day. But for the most part, I think Tuesday during the daytime looks good. Any organized storms on Tuesday will be in Louisiana or near Beaumont/Port Arthur. If you’re traveling I-10 east toward Lafayette or Baton Rouge Tuesday afternoon or evening, leave yourself a little extra time.

Fourth of July

Here’s where things get slightly more complicated. We’ve been discussing this since last week, and we have slightly more confidence in how things should go today. A vigorous upper level disturbance will swing across the Gulf Coast Tuesday and into Texas from east to west Wednesday and deliver showers and thunderstorms. Let’s roll through what we expect.

Timing: The start time in the Houston area will vary, but I expect an increasing chance of thunderstorms or showers from east to west on Tuesday night, sometime around and after Midnight, lingering into early afternoon on Wednesday. I think our odds of improving weather go up after 12-4 PM on Wednesday (again from east to west).

Do I need to cancel my plans? If you have July 4th evening plans, I would keep them, as the timing may work out well for fireworks and evening events. The morning and early afternoon will be dicier, so for some area parades, that could dampen things. If you have morning or early afternoon outdoor plans, you may want to have an indoor backup ready to be safe.

How much rain will fall? I believe we should see, on average, one to two inches of rainfall on Tuesday night and Wednesday. There could be a few places that see up to three or four inches of rain, or even a little more.

Flooding? Major, widespread flooding is unlikely from an event like this. As is often the case in Houston in summer, however, street flooding could be an issue in the morning or afternoon, depending on where the heaviest rains occur. Right now I think the most likely window for heavier rain from this system will be from 6 AM through 2 PM Wednesday. That may shift a bit between now and then, however.

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We had a few more thunderstorms yesterday, with a handful of areas (but a fair amount of population) seeing some rain. We may repeat that today before drier weather returns for the weekend. As for the Fourth, well, it’s going to be a close call.

Today

Look for a very similar day Friday to what we saw on Thursday. We’ll see a handful of showers or rumbles of thunder once more. There’s a very small chance that areas northeast of Houston could see a bit more activity today. Otherwise, sun, clouds, and hot. We’ll make another run for the low- to mid-90s. Haze may become a bit more obvious today as the leading edge of the Saharan dust plume arrives in Texas

Weekend & Monday

There should not be much weather to speak of this weekend. It will be dry and hot. Look for high temperatures in the mid-90s on average. Monday may end up being the hottest of the three days, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston register a 96 and 97 by then. Rain chances are almost never zero in Southeast Texas in summer, but this weekend will be close. We don’t expect much in the way of afternoon showers, even on the sea breeze right now.

We’ll continue to deal with dusty skies, which could again degrade air quality in Houston, so take it easy if you’ll be outdoors. I know this is Texas and most of us are used to the heat, but, coupled with the haze and dust, this weekend will probably feel just a tinge worse than usual. Drink plenty of water, take it slow, and check up on anyone you know that may be vulnerable in the heat.

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Eric noted yesterday that we haven’t hit 100° yet in Houston this year. Despite that, if the month ended yesterday, we would have one of the ten hottest Junes on record in Houston. Even without real extreme heat this June, it has been a mostly sustained hot month. We’ll close the book on June next week and have more numbers for you then. Meanwhile, let’s talk some slim rain chances, dust, and the chance of a pattern change next week.

Today through Friday

By no means are today, tomorrow, and Friday going to be considered really stormy days here in Houston, but they may represent our best chances for a smattering of showers or a few thunderstorms until next week. All three days should see at least a handful of showers on the radar from mid-morning through mid to late afternoon. Thursday has the better chance of the three days. But consider yourself lucky if you get a cooling downpour, as many folks will likely stay dry through this period. Expect high temperatures to peak in the lower to middle 90s both days. AM lows will likely hang in the mid- to upper-70s.

Weekend

Hot: That about sums up this weekend. Expect sunshine and heat, with storm chances about as close to zero as you can get this time of year. There’s always a chance a rogue downpour could pop up, but it will be decidedly hot and dry. Take care and drink plenty of water if you’ll be outdoors this weekend.

And just to add to the allure, it will be dusty and hazy. The leading edge of a Saharan dust plume from Africa will make it to Texas this weekend, giving the sky a milky, hazy, almost grimy appearance at times. It may also make for interesting sunrises or sunsets.

If you have any respiratory ailments, it may not be the worst idea to take it a little extra easy this weekend too. Expect the dust to perhaps be noticeable as early as Friday, but much more obvious on Saturday.

I’d expect mid-90s for highs both Saturday and Sunday, along with nighttime lows in the mid or upper-70s once more.

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