Temperatures are very cold this morning across the Houston region, ranging from near freezing for inland areas to around 40 degrees right along the coast. Gusty, northerly winds have pushed wind chill temperatures into the upper 20s for most of the area, so please bundle up before heading out today. Much of the region will see a freeze on Monday night as modified Arctic air spills into the region.
Temperatures will be cold Monday night and Tuesday morning. Lows are shown here. (Weather Bell)
Monday
It will be cold all day. Clouds should hang around for most of today, before some clearing this evening, keeping high temperatures to around 40 degrees. High pressure over the central United States will continue to drive strong northerly winds for most of today, with gusts of around 20 mph, so wind chills will likely remain in the 30s all day. Some light, misty rain will be possible, especially near the coast, but accumulations should be near zero. In short, it will be extremely cold for early March. As skies clear tonight we will see ideal conditions for cooling, and a freeze may well extend into the central Houston area.
Rodeo weather
Well, it’s going to be chilly. Temperatures at 6pm will be around 40 degrees, with rain chances near zero, and fading northerly winds. Not much will change after the rodeo is over, although skies may well be clear after the show. So you might be able to look up and see a few stars as you’re shivering your way back home. Please dress warmly.
Tuesday
A cool, sunny day, with highs of around 50 degrees. With clear skies Tuesday night, the Houston region should see conditions ranging from a light freeze for some areas of Montgomery County down to around 40 at the coast.
I’m going to start today’s post with a bit of controversy: February of this year wasn’t that bad of a month when you compare it to February 2018. Believe it or not, 74.3% of all hourly observations in February 2019 had some form of overcast reported. That could be fog, low clouds, high clouds, or even thin clouds with a little sunshine still getting through. But it’s a nice barometer of how cloudy the month was. Guess what? In February 2018, we managed to do 81.9% of all hourly observations in some form of overcast. So as bad as this past month was, it wasn’t quite as cloudy as last year.
February 2019 had some form of overcast almost 75% of the time, which was somehow not as bad as February 2018, which managed that over 80% of the time. (Iowa State University)
February 2019 also ended up with only 1.73″ of rain officially at IAH Airport (Hobby had 3.29″). Last February saw 5.73″ of rain officially. So despite our many days of rain this year, it was actually wetter last year. But last February averaged 62.5°, while this February averaged 59.7°. So I’m giving the edge to this February for being the worse of the two months on the colder weather alone.
Today
Whatever the case, February is in the rear view mirror, and it is now onto March, which will come in….as February ended. Expect a lot of low, dreary cloud cover today. Showers are possible, but not likely. More likely will be patches of drizzle at times.
Temperatures will be the challenging part of the forecast today. That cold front from yesterday was supposed to return back north today as a warm front. That appears to not be the case, so expect a mostly chilly start to the month today. Model guidance says we will get into the low- to mid-60s later today. Given our starting point this morning in the mid-40s, I would not be shocked to see us struggle to get into the upper-50s by evening and then continue a slow rise to near 60° tonight. Either way, we’ll get there. It’s just a matter of whether it’s today, tonight, or Saturday morning.
Rodeo weather
I think we are in good shape for the rodeo tonight in terms of rain chances. Yes, I cannot entirely promise there will not be a shower, but I think that would be rather unlikely. Temperatures are another matter. Expect mostly cloudy and cool, damp conditions. Temperatures will probably be about 56-59° in the early evening and post-show temperatures should be, well, in the 56-59° range. Temps won’t move much during the evening. Watch for areas of patchy fog on your drive home, especially if you’re heading southeast of town.
Saturday
I don’t expect much serious weather Saturday, aside from areas of dense sea fog developing once again. Coastal and Bay Area communities will likely be plagued by fog once again late tomorrow and tomorrow night. The rest of us should see mostly clouds, again, though a few scattered showers will be possible through the day, especially along or north of I-10. Temperatures will continue to be difficult. South of I-10 stands the best chance at being quite warm tomorrow with highs near 75° or so. Those chances of warmth get smaller as you go north. Some places north of I-10 tomorrow may not get above the low- to mid-60s. It’s possible that at some point tomorrow Conroe is around 60°, while Pearland is sitting at 76°. It will be that kind of day.
This week continues to deliver a messy forecast for Houston, as a cold front pushes through the region today, and the potential for some more thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening when upper level winds favor the development of some fast-moving showers. This rainy pattern continues through Sunday, after which time we might finally see some clearing skies with a significant cooldown.
Thursday
The aforementioned cold front is hung up in the city, such that temperatures in The Woodlands, Tomball, and Katy are only in the upper 40s this morning, while areas like League City, Seabrook, and Clear Lake are in the mid-60s with high humidity and fog.
Houston temperatures at 6:45am CT on Thursday. (National Weather Service)
This front should slowly slog down toward the coast this morning, helping to clear fog and dropping temperatures. Alas, this is a shallow front, so we’ll still see mostly cloudy skies. Moreover, a feature known as a jet streak, which is part of the jet stream where there are stronger winds, will transition over the region later this afternoon. This lift will bring an elevated risk of showers and thunderstorms from around noon to sunset. Accumulations likely will be only a few tenths of an inch of rain, but some small hail is possible.
Rodeo weather
I’d expect any storms that develop this afternoon to hopefully die down around 6pm, so rain chances going into the rodeo will likely be only around 20 percent. But it will be chilly, with temperatures in the low 50s, and a moderate northerly breeze. Post-show temperatures will probably be around 50 degrees, with only a 10 percent chance of rain.
Friday
As Thursday’s front, which should stall just offshore, moves back inland we’ll see temperatures quickly recover to around 70 degrees on Friday, with fog in the morning and humidity. At least rainfall chances are relatively low, probably below 20 percent.
Storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening proved more intense than anticipated, with some areas near Rosenberg, West University Place, Pearland, Friendswood, and Clear Lake seeing 2 inches of rain or more, and Deer Park and La Porte seeing 3 to 4 inches of rain. Fortunately, this threat of heavier rain appears to have passed—although daily precipitation chances are likely to remain with us through Sunday. It’s a messy forecast, so let’s jump into it.
Rain accumulation on Tuesday and Tuesday night. (National Weather Service)
Wednesday
The main problem this morning is fog, as warm air in the 60s moves over cooler water. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am this morning so take some extra care for your commute, or trips around town. Today will be fairly warm, with highs in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy skies. We probably will see some scattered showers develop this afternoon, although I don’t expect them to be nearly so organized or as intense as those on Tuesday evening.
Rodeo forecast
Temperatures will still be in the low 70s at around 6pm today, and we cannot rule out some showers over the central Houston region. I’d put the chances of light rain near NRG Stadium at about 30 percent going into the show. Conditions will still be muggy after the concert, but rain chances should fall down to around 10 percent.
Thursday
The will-it or won’t-it make it cold front appears likely to stall somewhere over the Houston metro area on Thursday. Of this much, we can be sure: a cold front will push into the northern edges of the metro area on Thursday morning. After this, the most likely scenario is that the front stalls somewhere along Highway 59, or perhaps a bit closer to the coast. Your local temperature, humidity, and rain chances are all going to vary Thursday depending on how far the front makes it (for example, the range of possibilities for afternoon temperatures at Bush Intercontinental Airport in the European ensemble model range from the upper 50s to 75 degrees). So our official forecast is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
