Tuesday PM: Harvey begins to work toward the exits

Tuesday, 2:05pm CT— Good afternoon. Another dreary day across much of the region as Harvey (finally!) begins to slowly pick up some speed and pull away. Thankfully the Houston area has seen minimal additional rains today, with most places across the hardest hit spots earlier in the week at or below one inch of new rain. Today’s hardest hit location is clearly Galveston.

Now and Tonight

Harvey is a shell of what it once was, but it’s trying to take up a new lease on life as it leaves our area.

Harvey trying to reorganize a bit as it begins to exit the region. (GR Level 3)

Harvey has been hammering Galveston all morning with heavy rain over 7″ total today, along with strong winds. Gusts over 50 mph have occurred at times on the island. This will continue as Harvey pulls away, but with a slight downward trend eventually.

Rains have really cut back around Houston, which is great news for us. Our neighbors to the east are unfortunately now in a serious predicament with extremely heavy rain pointed at the Beaumont and Port Arthur area. These areas have been similarly battered by rainfall since the weekend. Heavy rains will lash that area through this evening, worsening a bad situation. Some additional rains may redevelop tonight over Houston, but around the city, rain totals today will be the lowest they’ve been since at least Saturday.

Tomorrow and Beyond

Harvey is on its way, and it will make landfall late tonight or tomorrow morning likely in Cameron Parish, LA or near Port Arthur. We should see rain risk trend downward tomorrow with just a few showers, mostly in the morning and amounts should be mainly inconsequential as it relates to flooding. Skies may not clear out completely, but many of you will see sunshine tomorrow I project. We will stay dry into the weekend before at least some rain chances (hopefully mostly scattered stuff and nothing too organized) returns to the picture after Labor Day. We’ll have more on that once we dust ourselves off after Harvey’s exit.

Posted at 2:05 PM Tuesday by Matt

Harvey update: Rain forecast, River update, and “another hurricane” rumors

Tuesday, 11am CT—There is some good news in the latest update from the National Hurricane Center on Harvey’s position and movement—the storm is off the coast to the southeast of Galveston, and it is moving a bit faster (5 mph) to the east northeast. This means it is definitively moving away from the greater Houston area, and the rains are going to end. But we’re not across the finish line yet. This post will also take a quick look at some area waterways, and address rumors about “another hurricane.”

Forecast

Steady moderate to heavy rains are falling over the eastern half of the Houston area, especially for coastal areas including Galveston and Texas City. These should continue throughout the day, on and off, as Harvey slowly lifts away from the region. This updated rainfall forecast map from the National Weather Service shows that, from this point forward Harvey is far more likely to affect the eastern half of the region (3 to 8 inches more) than the western half of the region (1 to 3 inches at the most).

Rain accumulation forecast for Tuesday morning through Thursday evening. (National Weather Service)

We are probably about 24 hours away from a general cessation of rainfall, including for most of the eastern half of the Houston area. It’s been an absolutely miserable four or five days, but it’s almost over

See full post

When the rains stop, here are some first steps to take for your property

Tuesday, 8:30am CT—Understandably, it is hard to think about what must be done after a natural disaster. We know the stress of the moment is nearly too much to bear—especially for those of you who are dealing with immediate flooding issues. Water in your home. A flooded business. A lost vehicle. All of our thoughts and prayers are with you.

We are not experts in disaster recovery, we’re just forecasters. But we can provide some basic information about what to do when the rains are finally over, and we all will have to face the reality of damaged or lost property. While it may be difficult to fathom a return to normalcy right now, we hope this information may prove useful in the coming days.

Home flooding

Though flood waters may begin receding from your neighborhood, do not go back into your home until authorities say it is safe (i.e. despite the temptation, do not drive around barriers). This may not happen until Thursday or Friday, as Harvey finally leaves the area. Roadways can appear safe, but flood waters could erode the ground from under the asphalt, creating sinkholes. Wait until roads are free of water and safe to drive before attempting to return. Avoid standing water as well—water could be electrically charged from power lines, or hide dangerous wildlife (think alligators, snakes, or floating beds of fire ants).

A raft of fire ants in Pearland, Texas. (Brant Kelly/Flickr)

Once you get into your home, the first thing you should do is turn off the electricity at the main breaker, even if power is out in your community. Turn off the gas valves that feed into each individual appliance (stove, water heater, etc.). Then, carefully check your home to make sure there is no structural damage. Flood waters can put tremendous strain on the structure of a home. Take plenty of pictures of anything that is damaged, and contact your insurer immediately. As you begin any cleanup efforts, keep receipts. It may take insurance adjusters days or even weeks to assess your damage, so keep meticulous records. Finally, remember that flood insurance is a separate policy from homeowner’s insurance.

See full post

Tuesday morning Harvey forecast update

Tuesday, 6:20am CT— Good morning to all. Day four of Harvey in Houston is well underway. The end of the rain part of the storm is closer yet. For those curious about specifically how much rain has fallen, the National Weather Service did compile a brief list. Mutliple locations are over 40″ of rain total, especially southeast of Houston. Other locations have ranged from a lot to an awful lot.

Now

After a night of more rain, things have calmed down a bit in many areas this morning. Most rainfall rates are under 0.50″ this morning, except perhaps in the northeast corner of Harris County, and parts of Liberty, Chambers, and coastal Galveston Counties.

Radar as of 6 AM shows continued light rain in much of the area, with some more moderate rains east of I-45 and near the coast. (GR Level 3)

Any breaks are welcome of course, but we still have a little bit of a ways to go in this storm.

Today

Models seem to be struggling a bit handling the current situation, either overdoing it or underdoing it, so there’s a degree of uncertainty in the forecast today. If we look at a satellite loop this morning, the brightest clouds on this loop (essentially indicating the most moisture for thunderstorms) are clearly east of the area.

Harvey’s most intense weather should stay to our east, but I don’t believe we’re done with occasional moderate to heavy rains yet. (College of DuPage preliminary, non-operational GOES-16 data)

If you look offshore, there remains a little cluster of heavier storms on the north side of the center of Harvey (still a 45 mph tropical storm). Harvey’s eastward drift should become a northeasterly one later today. As this happens, it will probably fling back another wave or two of rainfall into the region, similar to yesterday or somewhat similar to last night. The heaviest rains will be east of I-45, while lighter rains will continue west of I-45. We should add up to a couple more inches at most west and perhaps 2-4″ (perhaps a few higher amounts in spots) or so east through the day today.

Tonight and Wednesday

As we go into the final phase of Harvey, and it begins to pull away tonight and Wednesday, we should see periods of rain once again, lightest west, heaviest east. Those should add up to another 0.50-1.50″ west of US-59 tonight through Wednesday evening and another 1.50-4″ east of US-59 and north of I-10. Some places will see less, others more, but this is about the average of what we should see.

Harvey’s turn north begins today and begins to accelerate tomorrow. (National Hurricane Center)

The forecast for Wednesday night would have steady rain ending east of Houston, and Thursday should see just a few scattered showers. Friday and Saturday continue to look dry.

We’ll have more the forecast and flooding later this morning. Stay safe all.

Posted at 6:20 AM Tuesday by Matt