As we head into the weekend, rain chances will be with us most of the time. Truthfully, while we can’t tell you exactly when and where it’s going to rain, the weekend should be peppered with plenty of dry periods. More on that in a second.

But we actually could use a bit of rain. We finished about two to three inches above normal in February, but the combination of a small deficit in January and over an inch deficit so far in March means we’re close to average for this point in the year. When you consider the autumn rainfall deficit we had, we’re certainly not in bad shape but it could be better.

The Drought Monitor update from yesterday shows that about 54% of Texas is in drought now, with almost 15% (all in the Panhandle region) in extreme drought. In the Houston area, we’re technically drought-free, but you don’t have to go too far west to hit moderate drought. With rainfall over the next 10 days probably averaging at or below normal, we should see moderate drought slowly begin to creep back in on the outskirts of our area by the end of March. We’ll see how it goes, but a little rain would not be a bad thing right now.

On to the forecast.

Today

Cloud cover is in firm control this morning, and it will stay mainly cloudy through the day today. Rain chances will be with us basically all day, but there’s a big caveat here: It’s probably not going to be too bad in Houston. We’ll have some light rain showers or drizzle around this morning. We’ll have a few more showers or a rogue thunderstorm nearby this afternoon. But the best odds for some steadier rainfall will be east of Houston. So the way I’m characterizing today is a few showers or some pockets of light rain, but no need to cancel plans or anything. Temperatures will ramp up to around or above 80 degrees this afternoon.

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After a string of three cool but beautiful days to start this week, we’re going to turn the corner today, back to slightly less nice weather, leading to some rain chances for Friday and the weekend.

Today

Look for a mostly nice start to Thursday. Just a few high clouds passing through this morning, though some newly developed low clouds are showing up near and east of US-59. But satellite imagery shows that the mainly clear weather elsewhere is running out of time.

Expect temperatures this afternoon to reach for the mid-70s in Houston, with gradually increasing clouds. I can’t rule out a little light rain or drizzle well southwest of Houston by mid to late afternoon. This would be most likely near Bay City, El Campo, Matagorda, or Wharton.

Tonight and Friday

Expect clouds to thicken up tonight across the entire region. We’ll see at least a few showers, sprinkles, or drizzle try and move into the area. Temperatures will be nowhere near as cool as in recent nights. We’ll struggle to get below 65 degrees or so in the city, milder southeast and cooler northwest.

On Friday, look for clouds and pockets of drizzle or showers in the morning. We’ll shift to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to pop up however. That said, the best chance for those will be east of I-45, mostly between Houston and Lake Charles. West of Houston, expect a few isolated showers or downpours Friday afternoon. High temperatures should sneak into the upper 70s and low 80s, even with a good deal of cloud cover.

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We’ve had quite a week. I guess if you want to grumble about the weather you’d be in Galveston wishing it were a few degrees warmer. But no one can deny it’s been flat out pretty this week. We’ve got one more winner of a day before some changes begin.

Today & Thursday

Today should be close to a repeat of the last couple. Another cool start in the 40s for many today will lead to a mild finish. We should sneak above 70 degrees this afternoon. We’ll see sunshine and a few high clouds around. Those clouds will increase on Thursday. I think it’ll be a mainly dry, quiet day, but it won’t be nearly as pretty as the current stretch of weather.

That said, we could see a few sprinkles or a shower, primarily southwest of Houston near Wharton or Jackson Counties down toward Matagorda. Look for morning lows Thursday to be in the lower or middle 50s, warming into the lower or middle 70s Thursday afternoon.

Friday

Things get a little trickier Friday. We should see clouds and a chance of sprinkles or a shower Friday morning. Temperatures will start much warmer than in prior days, with AM lows in the middle 60s. As a disturbance approaches Friday afternoon, that should help set off a slightly more robust area of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as well.

Weather models are still not fully in agreement on details here, but Friday afternoon will be our best chance of showers this week. One similarity I can find among the models is that they seem to favor areas east of I-45 for the most persistent showers. So the east side of Houston may be more likely see some pollen-cleansing showers than the west side. We will update this tomorrow as hopefully there’s slightly better agreement on details.

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