After a couple of modestly drier days, Houston should now return to a wetter pattern over the next week or so as high pressure moves off and the upper-level pattern in the atmosphere becomes more conducive to rainfall. Today, we’ll also discuss some potential tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as hints of the region’s first real cold front about eight to 10 days from now.

Thursday

The radar is clear this morning, but with atmospheric moisture levels at reasonably high levels we should see at least some scattered showers this afternoon as temperatures move into the upper 80s. Skies should be partly sunny for what will feel a lot like yet another humid, late summer day.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weather for this weekend looks unsettled, but not overly stormy. While atmospheric moisture levels will be fairly high, there is no strong forcing for rainfall. So while there will be a healthy chance of rainfall each day (we think 30-50 percent for inland areas north of Interstate 10, and 40 to 60 percent for areas closer to the coast) we don’t expect particularly high accumulations.

Most of the area will probably see between 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rainfall, with the usual outliers in terms of higher localized amounts. High temperatures will probably range from the mid- to upper-80s depending upon the extent of cloud cover (we’ll see some sunshine), and nights will be sticky, and in the mid-70s.

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Houston’s seemingly unending summer continues this week, with little break in the temperatures, humidity, or in a few days, rain chances. We’ll also discuss a tropical blob in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that ultimately shouldn’t have much effect on the region’s weather.

I was asked in a KUHF radio interview on Tuesday about the lack of fronts this year, and I said the most depressing thing about it is that we’re missing out on potentially great weather. October and November often see some of the nicest weekends of the year, and none of these are yet in sight. It’s a rather lousy thing.

Wednesday and Thursday

Some dense fog has developed over central and northern parts of the Houston area, and the National Weather Service has placed an advisory in effect until 10am. After this, weak high pressure should allow for partly sunny skies on Wednesday and Thursday.

Some areas will still see rain showers and possibly thunderstorms over the next two days, but accumulations should not be too significant—likely in the tenths of an inch. Highs will be near 90 degrees both days, and may reach that mark where skies are sunnier for longer.

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After a prolonged period of wet weather, the Houston region will see a moderate reprieve as we break from a pattern of widespread, daily rainfall. (Showers aren’t going away entirely, however). It is during this break that we will look for the region’s first real fall cold front. We’re overdue, now—way overdue. As you may recall, we’ve made the arbitrary decision to define this front as the first night after September 1 with an overnight low temperature of 65 degrees or lower at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

The average date for this first front is Sept. 18—two weeks ago—but there is a wide range of variability. For example, it is not unheard of for the first front to arrive in October. It happens about once every 10 years, on average. However, it is rare to get too deep into October without a cold front, and the latest Houston has waited since at least 1889 is October 13th. I’m afraid we’re in danger of setting this record this year.

Per the ensembles of the GFS and European forecast models, the region’s first cold front is unlikely to arrive in Houston this year any time before a time period between Oct. 11 and Oct. 15—nine or 10 days from now. Ughhhhhh.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As higher pressures move into the region, our weather pattern will turn moderately warmer, with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s. Temperatures will ultimately depend upon the amount of sunshine this afternoon, as we expect partly sunny skies. Rain chances will fall back into the 30 percent range, with showers most likely during the late morning and afternoon hours along with daytime heating. Lows in the mid-70s.

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Well, we made it through the end of September. And a strange month it was. No tropical storms or hurricanes hit Texas, and yet it has been one of the wettest months in the state’s history. Much of the state received 200 to 400 percent normal levels of rainfall, including all coastal areas of the Houston region (Galveston will record its second wettest September ever, and third wettest month of all time).

As a result, at the end of a summer in which no tropical storms or hurricanes moved into, or near Texas, the state finishes the hottest part of the year with just eight percent of the state in a “severe” or worse drought. This is a really healthy posture to be in, compared to typical years for Texas at the end of September.

That does not mean September has been particularly fun. Heavy rainfall during the last month has, on at least three occasions, brought significant flooding to Galveston Island and other coastal areas. For much of the region, nearly all of September was a soggy, humid mess with cloudy days and steamy nights. Speaking personally, I am not sorry to see it in the rear view mirror. Now, onto the forecast.

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