It feels like early June across the city of Houston this morning, with low temperatures only having fallen into the low 70s. Indeed, February has been quite a warm month after the cold start to 2018, and most areas are going to end up between 5 and 6 degrees above normal temperatures for the month. We will probably end up close to, if not among, the top 10 warmest Februaries in the city’s history. The map below shows the departure from normal temperature map for the last 30 days, through Monday.
Departure from normal temperatures map for the last 30 days. (HPRCC)
Wednesday
Highs will reach the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. We’ll see some brisk southerly winds as warm, humid air continues to move into the area. There’s a slight chance of showers for the northern half of Houston today, but for the most part I think the rain will hold off until a front moves through Wednesday night. The front, with a broken line of showers and storms, should sweep through the area between midnight and sunrise on Thursday, perhaps bringing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. As spring fronts go, this one should be fairly mild.
Well, that was nice while it lasted. Sunshine broke out across much of the area Monday, making for a beautiful afternoon and sunset. Unfortunately we are already seeing some light rain showers off to the southwest of Houston, and we’ll see more on-and-off rain chances through Thursday morning before we get another outbreak of pleasant weather.
Clear skies to end the day on Monday. (Amanda Berger)
Tuesday
A warm front is moving back onshore, bringing with it humidity and moisture into the Houston area. As this warm front moves inland today, it will generate some scattered showers, which mostly will be light. Under mostly cloudy skies we can expect highs in the upper 70s, with a warm night. Some areas along the coast might not fall below 70 degrees (this will flirt with record high minimum temperatures for Galveston, for this time of year, that were set in 2017).
Wednesday
This should be a warm, mostly cloudy day. Despite the absence of sunshine for most of the day, I think we’ll still see temperatures pushing into the lower 80s. A few scattered showers are possible, but I think that rain will hold off for most people until a front approaches the area Wednesday night. There is the potential for severe weather with this system as it moves southward through Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, but it appears these storms will remain to the north of Houston, as the air becomes more stable closer to the coast.
NOAA severe weather outlook for Wednesday and Wednesday night. (NOAA)
For Houston, we can expect to see a line of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through during the overnight hours on Wednesday, and pushes off the coast Thursday morning. Overall rain accumulations should be about one-quarter of an inch, or less, for most people. This is a good thing, as the San Jacinto and Trinity river basins are facing some moderate flood stages.
Houston experienced another dreary weekend, with unrelenting gray skies and on-and-off rainfall. We’ve had so many of these in 2018 that I joked about them on Twitter.
Fortunately, I think this pattern will break in a few days for the region, so let’s get right to the forecast.
Monday
Dense fog has developed for parts of Houston (there’s an advisory in effect until 10am) but other areas are pretty clear this morning. This fog should burn off pretty quickly. Otherwise, that nearly stationary front that helped spur widespread rain showers this weekend has finally pushed off the coast. That doesn’t mean we’re going to see sunny skies today, although I think some sun could peek through briefly. Instead, we’ll see a fair amount of clouds, and a chance of scattered, light showers later today with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s closer to the coast.
Tuesday
Similar to Monday in that our skies will be mostly gray, but we should also see a rise in moisture levels as the onshore flow resumes from the Gulf of Mexico. Again, some scattered rain showers are possible, but nothing to write home about. The warmer flow should allow highs to reach up into the upper 70s.
Wednesday
Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how much sunshine will poke through the clouds. If it is a mostly cloudy day, highs will be around 80 degrees. If some sunshine breaks through during the afternoon, I think we’ll get into the low 80s. Rain chances are low.
Statistically, I don’t know whether or not February has been Houston’s cloudiest month on record, but I think we all know it has to be close. Yes, we’ve had sunny periods at times, but they’ve been short-lived and fleeting. I’m not sure what the exact number is (we’ll probably tally it for you at the end of the month), but roughly 70% of the month appears to have had some level of overcast cloud cover. February averages somewhere around 45% cloud cover in Houston. Sunny weather will return eventually. That much we promise.
Today
Low clouds and fog are pretty prevalent this morning as this pesky front we’ve been dealing with begins to try and advance back north. Temperatures are all over the place, but it’s pretty easy to see the front.
Morning temperatures (6:30 AM) suggest grabbing a jacket north of Houston and perhaps putting on shorts southeast of Houston. (NWS)
The front has made it back to almost US-59. It’s in the 70s in southeast Houston, but 50s on the west and north sides. As the front pushes back north and west today, expect warmer, more humid air to win out just about everywhere. Low clouds and fog should gradually lift, but it may be a process in spots, meaning clouds and drizzle could mar a good chunk of the day. Folks well north and west of Houston may have the most trouble getting warm and clearing at all today.
Disturbances will continue to push through, but the heavy rain should stay oriented well to our north, where 1-3″ will be possible north of Waco and across the DFW Metroplex. Temps will top off in the mid or upper 70s southeast of Houston, perhaps near 80 with some sunny breaks. Northwest will probably see low-70s or so on average (warmer closer to Houston, cooler further away).
Weekend
Saturday will likely behave somewhat similar to Friday afternoon with an isolated shower, but mostly just AM clouds or fog, some sunny breaks, and humidity. Folks way north of Houston, such as up toward Huntsville, could see a little steadier rain Saturday morning. Again though, the bulk of the rain will stay well north.
With any sunshine, we’ll easily scoot above 80 Saturday, but otherwise it’ll be upper 70s. The front comes back at us tomorrow evening as a cold front. The good news is that while we should see some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Saturday evening, it shouldn’t be anything too serious. Right now, I’d be on the lookout for that between 4 and 8 PM, maybe a little a later southeast. And any heavier rain you see will probably be brief.
