Locally heavy rain for Houston early this week; watching late week tropical wave

Sorry for a later update than I would have hoped. Cable/internet outage due to storms and daddy duty called!

Lots of rain in and around the Houston area today, so we want to provide you a quick refresh on what’s going on with this rain, the tropics, and what to expect to start your week.

Monday & Tuesday rain

Radar as of this evening shows rain winding down across the area. Total rainfall over the last two days has been variable, with some places seeing minimal amounts and others seeing 2-3″ or even a little more.

Total rainfall since Saturday has been on the order of a half inch or less to three inches or more depending on your location. As usual, Houston rains are quite variable. (Harris County Flood Warning System)

Expect a mostly quiet night tonight. But, as we go into tomorrow, a number of things may come together to produce another round of heavy rainfall in the area. Eric will have more on the timing and the where tomorrow morning, but I would have the umbrella by the door tonight at the ready before you head out for work or school.

Look for more showers and thunderstorms in the area Monday night or Tuesday. It’s tough at this timescale to narrow down specifics, but suffice to say, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A Flood Watch isn’t posted for the area, but depending on how we do tomorrow, we may need one Tuesday. Street flooding is the main concern with this event.

Total rainfall from tonight through Tuesday evening is expected to average about 1-3″ across the area. Some may see more, others less, however. (NWS)

How much rain? On average, we expect most folks will see another 1-3″ on top of what’s fallen. Since “average” is just a combination of extremes, that means some folks may see less than an inch and others may see four or five inches of rainfall. Again, we don’t expect widespread problems and street flooding is the biggest concern right now.

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Soggy at times this weekend; watching tropics

As Eric has been conveying, this weekend is not going to be the most optimal for the Houston area. We’ve got rain chances in abundance. Thankfully, we don’t anticipate any serious problems from the rain, but if you have outdoor plans this weekend, you may need some alternative options. Let’s walk through it.

Today

Yesterday saw a good bit of rain mostly south of the metro area, down toward Wharton and Angleton and west toward Brookshire, with a few storms here and there elsewhere.So far, quiet this morning, with just a few showers down in Matagorda County. As the day goes on, I would expect scattered showers and storms to fire up with daytime heating, beginning at the coast and spreading inland. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do could pick up a quick half-inch to inch of rain in a cooling downpour.

Expect highs near 90°, but a little cooler if it happens to rain a bit more at your location.

Weekend & Monday

So, let’s start with this: I don’t think this weekend will be a complete washout. If you have outdoor plans, I might not completely abandon them. But I would absolutely have an alternative in place. I think Saturday may be a better day than Sunday, unless you live northwest of Houston. It won’t rain all the time and everywhere this weekend, but where it does rain, it may be heavy at times with some patchy street flooding possible.

Who are we expecting to see the most rain on which day? There will be a weak cold front draped inland over Texas. No, it won’t usher in cool, dry air, but it will act as a focal point for the rains. On Saturday it may be well north and west of the city, out toward Columbus and north to College Station and over into Walker or Madison Counties. By Sunday, it creeps closer to Houston.

The NWS rainfall forecast through Sunday evening is just shy of 1″ on average in most of the Houston area, but there’s a better chance at over an inch both along the immediate coast and northwest of the city. (Weather Bell)

I still think the focus of showers on Sunday may be to the northwest of Houston, but perhaps out toward Katy and up to The Woodlands and toward Livingston, so a bit closer. So it’s conceivable that both days, the majority of the rainfall stays northwest of the Houston area. We’ll still see some scattered showers and storms regardless though.

On Monday that front may creep through the area while falling apart. So, again, scattered to numerous showers and storms with daytime heating, now across the Houston area. Look for temperatures to top off in the upper-80s most days on average (90+ if you don’t see rain, cooler if you see a good deal of it), with lows in the mid-70s.

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Another wet weekend in store for Houston

Houston will have another day of somewhat drier weather before a wetter pattern returns to the region through Monday. Yes, another soggy weekend. Sorry about that. Also, while we’re on the subject of bad news, if you’re wondering when fall’s first front might arrive, I’m afraid there just aren’t any really strong signals for that right now. I would not anticipate it coming before around Sept. 20, if then.

Thursday

The region should see some partly sunny skies today, so enjoy the sunshine while you can. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible, but for the most part it should be a dry day. More sunshine will mean higher temperatures, so we can probably expect low 90s for most of Houston, with a smattering of mid-90s possible.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Unfortunately, the pattern for this weekend looks wet, with low pressure in place overhead and a plenty moist atmosphere. Effectively this means that most areas of Houston (50 to 70 percent) will see rain on most days from Friday through Monday. Although the forecast models aren’t forecasting any rain bombs at this time that might lead to some street flooding, with this kind of atmosphere during the summer months we can’t rule out some heavier showers that temporarily clog streets.

Temperatures, as usual, will depend upon the extent of cloud cover and rainfall. Look for a range from the mid-80s to lower-90s. Humidity, of course, is guaranteed.

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Rainy pattern to continue in Houston for … quite some time

September has been a wet mess for most of Houston, but the one upside has been temperatures. At a time when we typically see highs in the mid-90s, the last three days have generally produced highs in the 80s. And if you like this wet, slightly cooler than normal pattern have we got a deal for you. Because this rain-lovers-delight pattern should continue for quite awhile.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days should be drier than the recent weather in Houston, but only in the sense that showers and thunderstorms should be more of a scattered nature rather than widespread. Even so, we expect 30 to 50 percent of the region to see some form of rain the next two days. Highs will depend upon shower activity, and likely will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Sunshine will be scarce, but we can probably reasonably hope for a few breaks in the clouds.

The NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through next Tuesday looks healthy, but not extreme. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As whatever is left of Tropical Storm Gordon moves well north of Houston, toward Oklahoma, it will leave lower pressures in its wake for our region. This will lead to, again, a healthy chance of rain showers through the weekend, probably around 60 percent each day, give or take. This should keep highs in the 80s or low 90s, and unfortunately we’re going to hold onto those mostly cloudy skies. If you’re planning outdoor activities, uhhh, have a back-up plan.

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