Weekend weather and another look back at Hurricane Harvey

A lot of stuff to get to today. We’ll go through the forecast first, and then jump into the National Hurricane Center’s final report on Hurricane Harvey, released yesterday.

Today & Saturday

We’re thinking today will be a rather uneventful weather day. We should see a good deal of cloud cover around, with limited (if any) sunshine. Temperatures are starting the day much warmer (around 50° in most spots, roughly 15° milder than yesterday at this time), and they’ll likely finish warmer than yesterday too. We should manage about mid-60s this afternoon.

In terms of rain, the bulk of today should be dry, but there could be some sprinkles or showers.

Things do change tonight as onshore flow continues, driving in ample moisture. A weak disturbance passes offshore, and this combination will lead to increasing rain chances as the night goes on. The best chance for the most shower activity will be south and east of US-59. The general rule of thumb will be that the closer to the coast you get, the better rain chances will be. Saturday will see shower chances continue in the region, but I think they’ll be highest both in the early morning and later afternoon. And once again, they’ll be highest south and east of Houston. Still, have an umbrella handy Saturday. It will be warm again, with highs near 70 degrees.

Total rainfall tonight and tomorrow will be highest well south and east of Houston. (Weather Bell/WPC)

Generally, we’re only expecting about a half inch or less in and around Houston. Some coastal locations could see upwards of three-quarters of an inch or so of rain. Higher amounts will be possible as you move toward Beaumont-Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Also, watch for some patchy dense fog along the coast (or even in some inland spots) later today through Saturday night.

Sunday into next week

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday night without much punch. You’ll notice it more Sunday with lowering humidity and gradually decreasing clouds. Expect temperatures to top off near 65° or so on Sunday. Sunday night will be chilly, with lows back into the 40s in the area. Monday and Tuesday continue to look splendid, with highs in the low-60s and lows in the 40s. We’ll see a warm up with increasing clouds and minor rain chances after Wednesday.

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A hiccup before more great conditions next week in Houston

We’ll have one more day of sunny, really nice weather before a bit of a hiccup heading into the weekend.

Thursday

Houston will have another great day today, with high temperatures climbing into the mid-60s after a cool start in the morning. With sunny skies and light winds, this afternoon and evening should be a real winner for any outdoor activities. Later today the winds will make a subtle shift from northeast to southeast, and this will start us on a warming trend—especially during the overnight hours—into the weekend. Lows Thursday night will probably be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the night before.

Friday and Saturday

The forecast turns a bit messier as Houston heads toward the weekend. Moisture will stream inland on Friday, and later Friday night an atmospheric disturbance will move up the coast. At this time the best chances for rainfall will occur near the coast, where perhaps there is a 70 percent chance of rain on Friday night through Saturday, with a lesser chance for inland areas. As the onshore flow picks up there could be a brief spike in moisture levels on Saturday morning that will fuel some isolated, heavy rain showers, but I think most of the area will see rain measurements in the tenths of inches.

Moisture levels, shown here in precipitable water, spike to about 200 percent of normal levels on Saturday morning. (Weather Bell)

Highs will be in the upper 60s on both days under mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will push through later on Saturday, or during the overnight hours, which will bring an end to the rain chances.

Sunday and beyond

After the front, Houston will dry out and see some more pretty great winter-time weather. Generally, for the first half of next week, the region should see highs in the mid-60s, with nights in the upper 40s to low 50s. So it will be chilly—but not cold.

Some rain chances return by Thursday or Friday of next week, when the region’s next front seems likely to move through. At this time I don’t expect a freeze for most parts of Houston, but we’ll be watching it for you.

Mostly superb winter weather to prevail for the next week or so

Houston experienced fabulous January weather on Tuesday, and we’ll have a couple of more splendid days before conditions are mixed up a bit this weekend. This is the winter most of us in Houston know and love.

Wednesday and Thursday

Not much changes for the next couple of days, as we see pleasant, sunny days with high temperatures in the low 60s, and overnight lows on Wednesday around 40 degrees—warmer closer to the coast and cooler inland. Thursday night will be milder, as the onshore flow resumes, and moisture levels begin to rise.

After a series of colder nights, Friday morning’s lows will be more moderate. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

Those rising moisture levels will generate some clouds on Friday, and possibly some light, scattered rain. Even so, the better rain chances probably don’t come until Friday night, when an upper atmospheric disturbance appears likely to move into the region from lower Texas. Highs Friday will probably reach into the mid-60s and you’ll begin to feel the humidity.

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Dry now, a bit soupy to end the week in Houston

The first three weeks of January saw an average temperature about 7 degrees below normal across Houston, but the last week of the month should see weather more typical for this time of year—which is to say not too hot and not too cold.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

After a chilly start this morning generally in the 30s across Houston, pleasant winter weather awaits. Under the influence of high pressure, we’re going to see mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 60s, dry air, and cool nights with lows in the low 40s—warmer at night along the coast and cooler for inland areas. Clear skies should make for really nice sunrises and sunsets.

Thursday night, Friday and Saturday

By later on Thursday, an onshore flow should resume, and this will increase cloud cover and return some rain chances to the area. Basically, the combination of warm, and moist air will generate some light, probably mostly misty rainfall later on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday across the area. In terms of accumulation, we’re probably talking at most a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

NOAA’s rain accumulation forecast through Saturday night shows only modest amounts for Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Despite the mostly cloudy skies, due to warm air moving back in from the coast we’ll see highs near 70 on Friday, and probably at or above 70 on Saturday. The rain won’t be continuous, and some areas probably won’t get wet, but it won’t be the best start to the weekend.

Sunday

A cold front will push into Houston this weekend, and right now the most likely time seems to be between midnight and sunrise on Sunday, although this timing remains subject to some change. Most likely we’ll see a fast-moving, broken line of showers with the front. Conditions don’t look too blustery in the wake of the front’s passage, with perhaps 10- to 15-mph winds on Sunday as cooler air moves in to limit highs into the 60s. Sunny skies should return quickly, too. There’s some question about the strength of the front, but I suspect there will be enough cooler air to keep us in the 60s (highs) and 40s (lows) regime for the first half of next week. Rain chances fall off with the front’s passage, too.