Houston enters a wetter pattern to end summer

Our weather pattern heading into the end of August and early September has definitely changed, as high pressure has shifted east, and opened up the Texas coast to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While we don’t see any tropical threats at this time, certainly we can expect to see some elevated rain chances and (for August) cooler temperatures for most of the rest of this week, and Labor Day weekend.

Tuesday

Temperatures today will depend upon cloud cover, likely ranging from about 90 degrees into the mid- or even upper 90s for far inland areas that see mostly sunshine. Overall rain chances will be pretty healthy, about 50 percent. In this pattern, one neighborhood may receive as much as half an inch, while the next neighborhood over gets some sprinkles, and the next neighborhood after that gets no rain at all. Flooding won’t be a concern, but the National Weather Service does warn that scattered showers and thunderstorms today may produce short-lived tropical funnels and waterspouts.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday. Note the cooler highs for East Texas, due to clouds and better rain chances. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

This pattern should more or less hold for the rest of the work week, with partly sunny days, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and high temperatures between 90 and 95 degrees. For the most part, outdoor activities should be fine, but if you do see a thunderstorm moving in you most definitely should take cover due to the potential for lightning.

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A year ago, Houston was under water

I can remember this morning, from a year ago, with crystal clarity. The Houston region had just seen its most intense night of rainfall, ever, as three major bands of rainfall swept across the city and flooded everything. Conditions grew so dire that the National Weather Service essentially invented a new warning to characterize flooding across the region, declaring a “Flash Flood Emergency for Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding.” And it had only just begun, with the Houston region facing three more days of heavy rainfall.

(Space City Weather)

On this anniversary of Harvey, I invite you to share your memories with the Harvey Memories Project, a partnership between Rice University and local libraries. The goal is to create a digital archive of photos, short video, and audio of Harvey experiences. Local health researchers are also collecting information about the health, housing, and vehicle damage from Hurricane Harvey, and you’re encouraged to participate in this survey. Now, onto the forecast.

Monday and Tuesday

We’re in the midst of a pattern shift, as the high pressure that dominated Houston’s weather last week moves away from the region. This will lead to better rain chances this week, although perhaps not right away. Rain accumulations will generally be better for central and coastal parts of the region, rather than areas to the northwest, but overall most people should pick up some much needed precipitation this week.

For Monday and Tuesday, we’re probably going to seen only isolated to scattered rain chances, with 20 to 30 percent of the area seeing showers. High temperatures will depend on the extent of localized cloud cover, but probably will range from about 90 degrees to the upper-90s for areas that see full sunshine.

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More of the same for Houston, a year ago Harvey acquires “the look”

Temperatures peaked in the middle 90s on Thursday, as we saw a little more morning cloud cover and a lot of haze than in prior days. Incidentally, the haze isn’t Saharan dust for a change. It is actually courtesy of the wildfires you’ve likely heard about in the news in the West.

An experimental forecast from the HRRR model, shows that as of 7 AM today, smoke will be prevalent over much of East Texas and Louisiana. (NOAA)

Expect somewhat poor air quality, with haze and smoke, along with elevated levels of ozone to impact the region through tomorrow. Air quality should slowly improve by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will not improve much unfortunately.

Friday and Saturday

It looks like we’ll be experiencing more in the way of typical August weather over the next couple days, but with very low rain chances. Folks will be lucky if they see an isolated downpour through tomorrow. Otherwise, it will just be hazy, sunny, and humid. High temperatures today and tomorrow should approach the upper-90s to near 100 degrees. Morning temperatures will be in the upper-70s, with a face full of humidity.

Sunday and Monday

Things change just a little here. I would expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures generally in the mid-to upper-90s and AM lows again just under 80 degrees. The main difference between Sunday & Monday versus today and tomorrow will be a slight boost in rain chances. If chances today and tomorrow are 10 to 20 percent, chances Sunday and Monday will be roughly 20 to 30 percent. So, you’re still not necessarily likely to see any showers, but your odds are a bit higher here than they will be today or Saturday.

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A heat advisory to end the week, a year ago Harvey becomes real

It’s August in Houston, so it should be no surprise that Houston’s weather is doing August things. After temperatures hit 99 degrees on Wednesday, we can expect more very warm weather to end the work week. Meanwhile, a year ago today, Harvey’s rainfall threat was becoming very, very real.

Thursday and Friday

The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for Thursday, and likely will extend it for Friday, as high temperatures are likely to reach 100 degrees, with a heat index of 105 to 110 degrees. These days will basically be a lot like Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies, hot days, and warm nights with lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

A heat advisory is in effect for Texas along the I-10 corridor today from central Texas through Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday

Another very warm day, but as high pressure begins to slide away to the northeast, we’ll see some slight rain chances return to the forecast. If you have outdoor plans, I wouldn’t worry too much. I still anticipate mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the upper 90s. It’s just that we can’t rule out a few isolated to scattered showers moving through the area during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Sunday and Monday

Still very warm, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, but as high pressure recedes a little more, I anticipate rain chances to nudge up to 20 to 30 percent. Skies should remain at least partly (if not mostly) sunny for both of these days.

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