Long-time readers of this site will know that we don’t place a whole lot of confidence in seasonal forecasting. Trying to predict weather (note that’s “weather” not “climate”) conditions months in advance is not exactly an exact science. Case-in-point: Much of the Houston area has not gotten a drop of rain in the month of May, and the next week or so looks dry. And yet here’s NOAA’s monthly outlook for precipitation for the month of May, issued on April 30th:

This forecast, quite clearly, will likely bust. And it was issued the day before the month of May began. So while I do think there is some value in seasonal forecasting, you should not take it to the bank.

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Houston’s Intercontinental and Hobby Airports, as well as Galveston, set record highs on Tuesday with the mercury hitting 94, 94, and 88 degrees respectively. This abnormally warm weather should continue for at least another week or so as a mid-summer like pattern of high pressure persists over the region. We’ll probably have to wait that long, as well, before meaningful rain chances return to the area.

Wednesday

After starting out in the upper 60s or lower 70s—depending on where you live in Houston—temperatures on Wednesday will climb fairly rapidly across the region. The combination of clear skies and summer-like high pressure should again push high temperatures into the mid-90s. This will be another day that, if you’re planning to do something outside, it’s best to try and do it during the early morning, or evening hours.

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It is not atypical for high pressure to dominate Houston’s weather for weeks at a time, as it has so far this month. But it is atypical for this pattern to dominate in May, rather than later during the summer in July or August. However, it appears that high pressure will nonetheless be with us for awhile, and accordingly the rest of May will probably be warmer (and drier) than normal. The 16-day forecast from the GFS (never to be trusted, but in this case it’s probably not that far off) offers this outlook for the rest of the month:

For May, that’s pretty brutal.

So if days are this hot in May, what does this mean for July and August? We’ll have a comprehensive post on Wednesday that will look at the summer forecast for Houston and southeast Texas. We know it will be hot. But how hot?

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Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but you may have seen that the National Hurricane Center has identified a low-pressure system across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in three to five days as it moves northward (a 40 percent chance). Regardless of whether this system develops, it is going to mean a wet week for Florida and Alabama, and continued very dry weather for the greater Houston area.

Put another way, this tropical system is going to have zero effect on Texas. Also, if you’re concerned about what the formation of a tropical system before the actual beginning of hurricane season may mean—don’t be. These storms happen every two or three years, and there is little to no correlation between the development of a pre-season storm and that year’s overall activity in the Atlantic.

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