We’re seeing another morning of freezing, or near-freezing temperatures this morning across Houston, but the region will now emerge from the ice box to enjoy several really pleasant fall-like days. Unfortunately, by Sunday or so, our forecast for the coming holiday week turns a bit murky. We definitely have some concerns for the busiest travel days of the year.

Thursday and Friday

With high pressure in place overhead, we’ll see sunny skies, with high temperatures on Thursday near 60 degrees, and in the mid- to upper-60s on Friday night. Overnight lows will be comfortably above freezing, but still in the 40s for most of the region except for the coast.

Saturday

A very nice weekend day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s for Houston, under partly to mostly sunny skies. After several days of northerly winds, a southerly flow will resume, bringing moisture back into the atmosphere, and setting the table for better rain chances as early as Sunday. Your dry skin, at the very least, will be happy.

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This is quite an early cold spell for Houston. The trace of sleet and snow recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday broke the record for earliest observed snow at the site, previously set on Nov. 23, 1979. Houston’s Hobby Airport also recorded its earliest trace of freezing precipitation. And although this morning’s freeze for parts of Houston did not set any records, this first freeze has come three to four weeks earlier than normal.

Wednesday

One of the reason it’s very cold this morning is because skies cleared over night, allowing for increased radiational cooling. Those same clear skies will allow temperatures to warm to about 50 degrees today, with light northerly winds, and then once again push lows down to freezing or near-freezing levels tonight. Expect temperatures in the metro area to be similar to to those of Tuesday night.

Thursday

Look for sunny weather, and temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, bringing highs into the mid- to upper-50s, and lows comfortably above freezing.

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Houston’s temperature dropped below 40 degrees on Tuesday morning for the first time since February 12, and our lows this morning will be quite a bit warmer than the next two mornings. The region’s first freeze since January is on tap for tonight for most of Houston except the coastal areas.

Tuesday

Today will be a cold one, without a doubt. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, and this will likely limit high temperatures in the mid-40s. Brisk, northerly winds at around 15 mph will push wind chill temperatures into the 30s—so you’ll definitely want a jacket at the very least. The radar is showing some very spotty snow flurries and sleet to the west of the region this morning, and this area of moister air aloft will move over the Houston region between about 8am and noon. However, the air nearer the surface of our region is very dry, so while we can’t entirely rule out a few sleet pellets or snow flurries this morning, they’re unlikely.

Tonight will be the region’s coldest since mid-January, with most of the area seeing a light-to-moderate freeze .The usual precautions for pets and plants apply, although it probably won’t be cold enough to threaten pipes. The record low for Nov. 14 in Houston is 28 degrees, and I suspect the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport will come close to that.

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Showers associated with a low-pressure system have generally moved east of our region, and now we await the arrival of a strong cold front later this afternoon that will be blustery. This will bring a freeze to parts of Houston, perhaps even most of the city, by Tuesday night. I’ll say it—Winter is Coming.

Monday

Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s today before the arrival of a front this afternoon; probably around 1 or 2 pm for central parts of the city and a little later along the coast. For the most part this should be a dry front, with only scattered rain showers, and these will end regardless later this afternoon. From that point temperatures should begin to fall as winds gust above 25mph in the city, and perhaps above 35mph along the coast bringing in chill northerly air. There is a wind advisory in effect from 2 pm Monday through 6 am Tuesday for the coast. It will be blowing out tonight.

Overnight low temperatures should generally remain in the mid- to upper-30s for the Houston area on Monday night, but with the winds it will feel quite cold outside. Wind chill temperatures for Tuesday morning will feel like the 20s for much of the region.

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