A mostly quiet mid-August week ahead

Good Monday morning! Matt here this morning, covering for Eric. Thanks again to Eric for covering me in my opening days of fatherhood. Thanks to all for the comments and well wishes over the last couple weeks. I apologize for any typos, though I’ll blame it on the lack of sleep.

The Houston area has seen repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the last week and change, but as someone who has been shut out most of the time, I’ve taken notice that the total rainfall distribution has been somewhat erratic.

Rain totals this month have been somewhat erratic around the region. (Harris County Flood Control)

Some areas have seen as much as three to five inches of rain this August, while others have seen a tenth of an inch or less. The winners appear to be in eastern Harris County and also up toward The Woodlands southwest toward Cypress. Waller County has done well also. So it’s been feast or famine for much of the region in August. Looking ahead to this week, the faucet will slow to a trickle for a couple days, and mostly typical August weather sets in.

Today & Tuesday

Our weather pattern has begun to change a bit, as high pressure and dry air begin to flex overhead. This should significantly limit storms in our area this afternoon. Expect high temps in the mid-90s. On Tuesday, we’ll see more of the same, though the rain chances may not be quite as limited. So, we’ll call it just a slight chance of showers. More mid-90s are expected.

There was a good bit of Saharan dust in the skies yesterday. Expect more of that today. Dust will slowly thin out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Air quality will be poor. This sort of thing will be worst for those with respiratory ailments. It’s also not optimal for those of us with regular seasonal allergies. The good news is that Saharan dust outbreaks tend to have peaked by now. So these events should become a little less frequent and intense as we move forward.

Wednesday through Friday

Typical August weather in Houston can be expected to round out the week. Temperatures will probably be one or two degrees cooler than usual, but that will hardly be noticeable to most of us. We’ll peak with highs in the mid-90s and lows in the upper-70s.

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Some heavy rain potential Friday and Saturday before classic August weather returns

Sorry for the delayed post this morning, but sometimes things happen. Fortunately, the forecast has not changed too much, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday before a decreasing chance of rain Sunday, and drier conditions early next week.

Friday

Expect a stormy summer day. Most of the ingredients needed for rainfall will come together early this afternoon, with ample moisture, lift, and instability across the region. Some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, and we can’t rule out some street flooding. However, I expect that most areas that do see rain will probably see about one-half inch. Highs will probably be in the low 90s, but local conditions will vary on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall. Rain chances retreat, but do not go entirely away, tonight.

Forecast rainfall totals for the coming week. Houston should see most of this rain on Friday and Saturday. West Texas will be very wet for this time of year. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday

We expect to see similar conditions on Saturday, with moisture and atmospheric lift driving another round of (probably) widespread showers. These will not be all-day storms, but certainly they will have the potential to move through and disrupt any outdoor activities. High temperatures, again, will be dependent upon cloud cover and localized rainfall.

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A few more rainy days before August-like weather returns to Houston

The Houston region will remain in a wetter-than-normal pattern through the weekend before conditions dry out some, and our weather turns more August-like; which is to say hotter and a bit sunnier, without the relief of afternoon showers.

Rain accumulation forecast for Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

Rain chances aren’t ideal today as some drier air has moved into the area, but there still should be activity later this morning and through the afternoon hours scattered across the area. Chances are probably slightly better (40 percent) for the eastern half of Houston versus the western half (30 percent), but at this point we’re splitting hairs. High temperatures today should generally be in the low 90s, although as we saw yesterday it can get hotter in locations where there aren’t a lot of clouds. For example, Wednesday’s high temperature was 96 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

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Houston cooler, deep tropics quiet. This is an August we can deal with.

Good morning. Houston remains in slightly-cooler-than normal pattern for early August, which is most welcome considering that this typically is the region’s warmest time of year. I don’t see a return to 100-degree days any time soon, but next week does look like it will be a little warmer, with slightly less cloud cover.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be summery days, but with just enough cloud cover to take the edge off of high temperatures. Rain coverage will be lower than we saw on Monday and Tuesday, but there still could be a few showers today streaming in from the coast. Mostly, however, we’ll just see partly sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get me wrong, these will still be hot days, but they should be below the criteria set for heat advisory days, and for August this weather is pretty, uhhh, temperate.

A cool front that will bring highs in the 80s to Oklahoma Wednesday won’t make it all the way to Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

After a cold front stalls north of the Houston region late this week, a couple of upper-level systems may move into the area that should prompt air at the surface to rise, and in turn this will increase our rain chances. This should push the likelihood of rain on both days to about 50 percent—with slightly better odds east of Houston, and slightly worse to the west. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will depend on the extent of cloud cover and rain. A few areas may stay in the upper 80s, while sunnier locales jump up into the mid-90s.

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