Record low watch for Houston continues

The record low watch continues this weekend for Houston. We’ll go into more detail on that below, but what a change the last couple weeks have been. The weather this time of year can get a little chaotic in the temperature department, and we’ll certainly see more of that present itself going forward. Let’s jump in.

Today & Weekend

As of 6:30, the front is just pushing (or about to push) through La Grange, College Station, and Madisonville north and west of Houston.

Using a map of dewpoints, here’s a rough outline of where the front is located as of 6:30 AM. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s indicate much cooler and drier air on the way. (NWS)

The front should work from northwest to southeast across the Houston area between about 8 AM and Noon. A brief shower or two is possible, but I wouldn’t really expect it, as it just appears that this front lacks much punch in that department. The best chance for showers will be east of I-45 and closer to Louisiana, where the front can tap into a little more instability and moisture. Temperatures today will stay generally steady in the 60s before finally giving in and dropping into the 50s late.

We might see some lingering clouds or a shower at the coast this evening, but then things should clear out. Behind the front today, it’ll be brisk. Expect north winds of 15-20 mph at times this afternoon and tonight (a bit stronger at the coast). Temps will tumble tonight into the lower 40s on average. It will be warmer at the coast and cooler (30s perhaps) in pockets north and west of Houston.

Saturday will be crisp. Expect highs generally in the lower 60s, but it will be sunny and beautiful with a gradually diminishing wind. Saturday night into Sunday morning is our shot at a record low. Sunday morning’s record low is the last “low hanging fruit” of the year. The current record low of 39° (set in 1910) is the “warmest” record low in Houston until April. Our record lows seem to hit an inflection point right around October 30th and take a step down.

Houston’s list of record lows takes a steady step colder after Sunday. (NOAA/NWS)

So we’re going to see our first strong autumn/early winter air mass basically right on cue. Expect upper 30s north, low 40s south on Sunday morning. There will be pockets of mid 30s north and west of Houston, and there may even be low 30s for the typical cold spots like Conroe or Huntsville back into the Brazos Valley.

NWS forecast lows for Sunday morning are quite chilly! (NWS/Weather Bell)

After a cold start, Sunday looks delightful, with sunshine, calmer winds, and temperatures topping off in the upper 60s.

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Harris County Judge releases 15-point plan to address Houston flooding

Nearly two months have passed since Hurricane Harvey drowned the upper Texas coast. There have been numerous public hearings, state meetings, and some squabbling about who should pay for cleanup, reconstruction, and mitigation.

But for the first time, this week, Harris County Judge Ed Emmett stepped forward with some concrete ideas about how the make future flooding events like Harvey less worse. “Now is not the time for a piecemeal approach,” he said Wednesday, during a news conference, in which he released a 15-point plan. “The sense of urgency created by Harvey will fade, so we must quickly commit ourselves to a comprehensive plan to redefine Harris County and the surrounding region as a global model for living and working in a flood-prone area.”

Texas Army National Guard soldiers move through flooded Houston on Monday, August 28. (US Army photo)

We have included each of Emmett’s 15 proposals below to spur the community discussion. There are a lot of good ideas here. One of the things that makes the most sense, from our perspective, is the creation of a regional floodwater management organization that would consist of representatives from area cities, counties, and other government organizations. Such a body could take a holistic approach to flooding, which is truly a regional problem, identify problems, find solutions, and then present them with a unified voice from the greater Houston community.

The biggest problem is that enacting a lot of these ideas will require cooperation between city, county, state, and federal officials. The political environment for such cooperation seems poor at this time, but Emmett is correct that if the region does not act now, Harvey will fade into memory and Houston will remain as vulnerable as ever to flooding. Ultimately, making a lot of these changes will require pressure from citizens, civic organizations, non-profits, and those who take the long view that Houston should be a great, livable city for decades and centuries to come.

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Houston warms briefly before a very cold October weekend

Some warmth returns to Houston briefly on Thursday before a cool front sweeps into the region on Friday, bringing the coldest weather since February. While the greater Houston area is unlikely to freeze, inland areas have a decent chance of seeing overnight lows on Saturday and Sunday morning fall into the 30s. Let us hope the Dodgers’ bats go as cold this weekend.

Thursday

As a southerly flow resumes this morning, humidity will return to Houston, and highs will climb into the lower 80s under sunny skies. There could be some gusty southerly winds later this morning, especially closer to the coast. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

GFS model shows front moving through most of Houston by noon, Friday. (Weather Bell)

Friday

A strong cold front will approach the northwestern areas of Houston on Friday morning, likely pushing into the city around 9 or 10 am (give or take), and off the coast by or before noon. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage, but we’re not expecting any kind of significant rain accumulations, and rains should end during the afternoon hours. Highs should reach around 70 degrees on Friday before a steep dropoff in temperatures during the evening hours.

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Houston may reach record lows on Sunday morning

The record low temperature for October 29th in Houston is 39 degrees—and there’s a chance we just might beat that on Sunday morning. Yes, the air mass moving into the region this weekend looks just that cold. And after a chilly weekend, temperatures should rebound for pleasant conditions on Halloween.

Wednesday

After a cool start to Wednesday, with much of Houston in the mid- to upper-40s this morning, we’re going to have absolutely splendid weather with highs in the upper 70s across the region. Look for another pleasantly chilly night, with lows in the upper 40s inland, and 50s for the southern half of the region.

Thursday

Gulf moisture returns Thursday, setting the stage for a bit of a warmer day with a high in the low 80s, under sunny skies. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 60s. But then, yet another front will move into the area on Friday.

Friday

With just enough moisture moving onshore Thursday, a front moving through the area on Friday morning will bring a chance of scattered showers during the morning and afternoon hours. None of the models are overly bullish on rain chances, and people that do see rain probably will see a tenth or two.

Rainfall accumulation forecast for Friday during and after the front’s passage. (National Weather Service)

Conditions will clear later in the day under breezy northerly winds. Lows Friday night will fall into the mid-40s for central Houston, with colder conditions north, and warmer toward the coast.

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