Hurricane season starts, but no concerns for Houston yet

We have reached June 1, which marks the official beginning of hurricane season. You’ve probably seen lots of coverage about how this seems likely to be an “active” season for the Atlantic—however if you actually read NOAA’s forecast it calls for a 55 percent chance of near normal or below normal activity, with a 45 percent chance of above normal. Essentially, that’s 50-50, and not really worth worrying about any more than any other year. Truthfully, if you live near the Gulf coast you should have a plan for when a hurricane threatens (evacuate? where? pets? documents? supplies?), and then put it into place when a storm develops. You can rest assured that we’ll provide comprehensive coverage of any tropical weather that potentially threatens Texas. To that end, we’ll be unveiling a site sponsor for the entirety of the season soon.

(NOAA)

Now, onto the forecast.

Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through Houston during the overnight hours dropping from less than a tenth of an inch to more than one inch of rain over western parts of Harris County. These showers have scoured some of the moisture from the air, and we’re likely to see a reprieve from rain through the morning hours. Whether we see some additional rain showers this afternoon will depend upon the extent to which our skies clear out after noon—sunnier skies will lead to warmer temperatures, and this would increase the likelihood of showers later in the afternoon and early evening. Look for highs in the mid-80s.

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On again, off again rainy days likely until early next week in Houston

On the last day of May conditions are warm this morning, with almost summer-like readings in the 70s. A few rainy days could keep the low-90s heat away from us for the next week or so, however.

Today

It will be another warm day, with highs likely reaching into the upper 80s this afternoon. This daytime heat should combine with moisture to produce a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. I’m not anticipating widespread coverage, but for areas that do see rain, that rain could briefly be quite heavy.

Thursday

This should be a wetter day for the region, as moisture surges into the area from the south. We should expect widespread showers and thunderstorms, again, with some localized deluges possible. Mostly cloudy skies should help keep highs in the mid-80s, and most areas probably will see on the order of 1 inch of rain, or slightly less.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Jetco Delivery)

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With summer looming, a primer on when Houston’s air quality is worst

For weather forecasters, air quality remains one of the trickier things to predict. Several factors go into making good air quality forecasts, because so many weather events influence air pollution. As Houston heats up and air quality becomes a greater concern this summer, we wanted to talk a little about what air pollution is, and the part weather plays in it.

Primary vs. Secondary pollutants

Air pollution consists of two types: primary and secondary. Primary pollution comes directly from a source, like car and ship exhaust, power plant emissions, fires, etc. Secondary pollutants, on the other hand, aren’t emitted directly into the air. Instead, chemical reactions in the atmosphere create these pollutants. Ozone, for example, forms when sunlight interacts with nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and other “volatile organic compounds”, or VOCs. Ozone in the stratosphere (think of the ‘ozone hole’) acts as an invisible sunscreen layer for earth, preventing UV rays from reaching the surface. However, ozone near the surface, or ‘smog’, acts as a respiratory irritant. The more sunlight we get during a day, the more potential there is for smog.

The many sources of air pollution. “Chemical transformations” are another way to describe secondary pollutant creation (Science Direct)

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A gray, somewhat wet week for Houston heading into June

Good morning. After some storms on Sunday night, Houston’s weather remained mostly calm on Memorial Day. As we enter June the region should remain in this gray pattern, with on-and-off rain chances for most of the rest of this week. This isn’t great weather for those who are looking for sunshine, but if you’re hoping to put off the start of Houston’s summertime slog of 90-degree days, you’re in luck.

Today

Despite the mostly cloudy start this morning, Houston might actually see some sunshine later today—if only briefly. Moisture levels aren’t that high, so I’m only expecting a few scattered showers to go along with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid-70s for most of this week.

Wednesday

As moisture levels pick back up on Wednesday, we’ll see somewhat better rain chances, and we can’t rule out of a few scattered, heavy rain storms during the day. Highs should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Jetco Delivery)

Thursday and Friday

By Thursday an upper-level disturbance should combine with fairly high moisture levels to produce a really healthy chance of rain across the Houston area. While we can’t rule out flooding given the time of year and moist atmosphere, it looks like these storms should produce 1 to 2 inches of rain to end the work week for most people, rather than an absolute deluge. We’ll be watching it closely regardless. Highs should remain in the mid-80s.

Rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Next weekend

The forecast for this weekend isn’t particularly clear, but the best bet is that we’re going to remain in this quasi-moist regime, with decent rain chances and partly to mostly cloudy skies. At this point I don’t think we’re looking at any significant flooding, but that remains a potential threat that we’ll have to look out for. This pattern may hold through the early part of next week before we finally see clearing conditions and characteristically warmer summer days in the low 90s. Honestly, there are worse ways to begin the month of June—such as with a tropical storm or highs in the 100s.

Posted at 6:45am CT on Tuesday by Eric