Some humidity returns before another fantastic weekend ahead

Well, that was nice. Houston’s weekend, with lows around 60 degrees, sure marked a pleasant change from four months of summer. We’ll warm up again some now, but another front before next weekend should make for splendid conditions again.

Today

We’re starting to see a slight rise in moisture levels across Houston this morning, and along with that we’re going to feel some more humidity. Today should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs near 90 degrees as well.

Tuesday through Thursday

Houston will fall back into a more typical early-fall like pattern, with warm days with highs near 90 degrees, and muggier nights, with lows in the low- to mid-70s. With the moisture return we’ll have a chance of some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, maybe 20 to 30 percent most days, but I’m not expecting anything too extreme.

Precipitable water levels should be highest on Thursday of this week. (Weather Bell)
Precipitable water levels should be highest on Thursday of this week. (Weather Bell)

(Note: Thank you to Innovo IT Solutions for sponsoring Space City Weather in October.)

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The Texas hurricane season is probably over

Long time readers of mine will be familiar with the date of Sept. 24th, the point at which the historical chance of a hurricane striking Texas falls very nearly to zero. Just three hurricanes have struck Texas after that date in the last 160 years, the most recent being Hurricane Jerry, in 1989. (The storm’s landfall, on Oct. 16, is the latest a hurricane has ever hit Texas. It had 85-mph winds and came ashore along Galveston Island).

I’ve waited a few days later this year to make an “end of season” post because I wanted to follow the evolution of Hurricane Matthew (which now, clearly, will not come into the Gulf of Mexico), and because the upper-atmosphere pattern still has a September feel about it. What I mean by this is that the fast-flowing jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere really hasn’t dug that far south yet, bringing with it strong wind currents that are hostile to hurricane formation and intensification.

This GFS model forecast for upper-level winds next Thursday morning shows that the jet stream isn't far enough south to provide really strong upper-level winds along the Texas coast. (Weather Bell)
This GFS model forecast for upper-level winds next Thursday morning shows that the jet stream isn’t far enough south to provide really strong upper-level winds along the Texas coast. (Weather Bell)

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A winning weekend ahead

With a nearly perfect weekend upcoming, it would be easy to press the forecast auto-pilot button here, but I’ll happily provide you some details. Let’s dive in.

First, it dropped to 59° this morning at Bush Airport for the first time since May 7th! I’d say this feels pretty good.

Today & Saturday

These should clearly be the best couple days since spring here in Southeast Texas. I mean, both days look awesome. AM lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s (upper 60s to low 70s at the beach). Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Oh, and humidity will stay low. We’ve all earned this.

Sunday & Monday

It looks like Sunday will be another winner of a day. You’ll probably notice humidity creeping back into the picture a little more, but it’ll still be nice. Heading to the Texans game? It seems like a great day to watch a football game, but alas, it’s highly unlikely the roof at NRG will be open. It should be just few degrees too warm still. We’ll get there eventually.

The weather is still a little too warm to open the roof at NRG Stadium, but tailgating weather looks fantastic!
The weather is still a little too warm to open the roof at NRG Stadium, but tailgating weather looks fantastic!

 

Monday should be very similar to Sunday, with perhaps just a tinge more humidity but plenty of sunshine.

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Another cool front will bring a splendid weekend for Houston

Temperatures range from the low 60s north of Houston this morning, to the upper 60s in the city, and lower 70s near the coast. It’s worth noting that Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, did hit 65 degrees this morning. So in terms of “fall’s first front,” we can safely define that for 2016 at Sept. 29th. It came 11 days late.

Today

More cooler air is on the way. A reinforcing front will move through Houston today, and because conditions are already fairly dry I don’t expect any rain with this system. The cooler, northerly air should keep highs north of Houston in the low 80s, while closer to the coast highs should climb into the upper 80s. Tonight should be lovely, with far inland areas falling into the upper 50s, and even coastal areas falling into the mid- to upper-60s.

A reinforcing cool front is moving through Texas this morning (position just before sunrise shown here). It should push through Houston today. (Weather Bell)
A reinforcing cool front is moving through Texas this morning (position just before sunrise shown here). It should push through Houston today. (Weather Bell)

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