Thus far what was supposed to be a “wet” week has mostly been a dud in the rain department. However I still expect that to change on Wednesday, when there’s the potential for heavy rain.
TODAY
A weak front is moving through Houston this morning, however it’s going to stall off the coast, and not going to bring much cool air. Highs will be around 80 degrees today, and even with the frontal boundary we’re going to see moisture pooling over coastal areas. This will allow for a chance of light showers today, and the potential for heavy rain tonight and on Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY
Because of the front’s proximity to the coast, very high moisture levels, and favorable conditions in the upper atmosphere we’re going to see rain between late Tuesday night and noon on Wednesday. For Houston I’d guess the heaviest rain comes between about midnight and sunrise. Coastal areas could see widespread totals of 1 to 2 inches of rain, with lesser amounts inland. In addition we can’t rule out some isolated flooding where rain showers are heaviest. That’s always a concern when the atmosphere is this moist. Fortunately as high pressure moves in by Wednesday evening we’ll see an end to shower activity.
Rain accumulation forecast for tonight and Wednesday. (National Weather Service)
Good morning. A few areas have picked up some light rain this morning, but the forecast models that predicted reasonably heavy showers for the region this morning have largely busted. That does not give me great confidence in the forecast for the rest of the day.
TODAY
The big question is whether a capping inversion over the region will break, or not, today. As an atmospheric disturbance moves over Texas today this will create a fair amount of atmospheric stability such that, if the cap breaks we’ll probably see some significant showers and thunderstorms. According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center the primary threat will come from hail and wind damage, with a very slight chance of tornadoes. Right now any severe weather that does develop seems more likely to the north and east of Houston, rather than the south and west where the cap is weakest.
My best guess for rain totals today is less than one-half inch of rain south of Interstate 10, and the potential for one-half or more north. But after this morning’s bust my confidence is not high.
An atmospheric disturbance will bring a chance of storms later today. (NOAA)
A lot of people have been asking for when it might rain next, and now the forecast is becoming more clear. So here’s a quick weekend update on rain chances for the next few days.
MONDAY
If you’ve been outside today you’ve probably felt the increasing moisture levels, and seen some clouds. That’s atmospheric moisture returning to Houston, and high resolution forecast models show the possibility of locally heavy rain on Monday morning, from a few hours before sunrise through around 9 a.m. I’d characterize the uncertainty about amounts of rain as “high,” but there’s definitely the potential for some areas to pick up a quick inch of rain. Most parts of Houston, however, are more likely to only see a tenth or two of an inch of rain during the morning hours.
Another round of showers is possible in the afternoon, however the better chances for rain, and possibly severe weather, lie well to the northeast of Houston later on Monday.
Storms are possible Monday to the northeast of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)
Our lengthy stretch of stellar, stunning, <insert your favorite adjective here> weather will gradually wind down over the next couple days, as we return to more humid weather and some rain chances next week.
TODAY
We’re starting off today pleasant again. Temperatures are generally in the mid 50s region-wide, though a few spots in the city are around 60°, particularly south and east of Downtown. High clouds will continue to stream across the region today.
Satellite image this morning shows high clouds streaming across Texas. (College of DuPage)
As long as clouds aren’t too thick, we should manage around 80° or lower 80s again. Otherwise, we will be a couple degrees cooler. No issues though, with continued low humidity.
WEEKEND
After another relatively pleasant morning, Saturday should be similar to Friday, with sun and high clouds. Temperatures will again be contingent on how thick the cloud cover is, but we’ll likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday regardless; say upper 70s for now. I can’t fully rule out a shower tomorrow afternoon, but the odds would be very low. The best chance would be north and west of town.
Saturday afternoon dewpoints in the 50s means another day of comfortable, low humidity. (Weather Bell)
On Sunday, onshore flow will have been established pretty persistently. This will bring warm, moist air off the Gulf, and the humidity will edge upwards. There will likely be some clouds around, mixed with sun. A chance of showers exists, but it is a low chance. Temperatures will press back to near 80 degrees.
NEXT WEEK
Monday will carry a low chance of showers, along with clouds and sun and temperatures again around 80°. If you’re attending the Astros home opener, I’d probably lean 60/40 on the roof being closed right now. Hopefully we get it open for a few games next week though.
Forecast confidence plunges Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect showers and storms to become more numerous, but the key to unlocking rain chances is trying to time upper level storm systems that we just can’t do 4+ days out (I’ve seen the heaviest rain shift 12 hours and 100 miles around Texas between weather model runs the last couple days). But I think there’s a good chance some heavy rain will return to the forecast for parts of the area midweek next week (though not every single day). Behind that, we should briefly return to nice spring weather and low humidity for late week. These “nice” windows of weather are going to get shorter and shorter as our typical summer pattern develops. Enjoy it while you still can.
MS-150
As Eric told you yesterday, mild temperatures are expected right now. No changes there or on the idea of a tail wind being dominant. However, the bigger issue may be rain. Some models indicate thunderstorms next Sunday between Houston and Austin. This is very much a “let’s wait and see” forecast right now. All options are still on the table, so stay tuned!
