Expect more warm weather before a major cooldown Sunday in Houston

After the city of Galveston broke both its the daily (Dec. 13) and monthly (December) record high temperatures, reaching 81 degrees on Tuesday, the Houston area’s winter “heat” has broken—for now. We’ll have to wait until this weekend for a major cooldown.

Today

A moderate cool front has moved into the Gulf of Mexico, and northerly winds today should finally bring some significantly drier air into the region by this afternoon and evening, clearing skies. Highs today should climb into the upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

Temperatures should fall into the upper 40s for most of Houston tonight, except for coastal areas, and Thursday should be another cooler day in the wake of last evening’s front. Highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees across much of the metro area. However onshore winds will return sometime later on Thursday, setting the stage for an unusually warm end to the week.

Friday and Saturday

As moisture returns, so will the humidity, and more potential problems from early morning fog. The region will also see some rain chances on Friday and Saturday, but I think we are only looking at fairly scattered, mostly very light rain.

High temperatures should rise into the mid- to upper-70s on both days under partly to mostly cloudy skies, and I think Saturday will probably be quite breezy as a strong wind establishes itself out of the south. Parts of Houston could see gusts around 20 mph. If you don’t like soupy weather in December, change is coming.

Temperatures will be anomalously warm on Saturday evening, 15 to 20 degrees above normal But look at what is coming! (Weather Bell)

See full post

A big cooldown comes Sunday, and our first look at Christmas weather

Good morning. Fog lies across much of the area this Houston morning, and the entire metro region is under a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 a.m. Aside from that conditions are just sticky for mid-December. Will they remain that way through Christmas? I’ll discuss.

Today

Conditions will remain mostly cloudy today, and warm, with highs in the mid-70s before the passage of a cold front sometime this afternoon or evening. Some light, scattered rain showers are possible. The front should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s tonight for most inland areas, with slightly warmer temperatures along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

As light northerly winds bring in drier air, Wednesday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs near 70, and overnight lows around 50 degrees. As cooler air continues to move in Thursday may only reach about 60 degrees under mostly sunny skies. The cold front’s effects will be brief, however, as onshore winds resume sometime later on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday

Warm (for December) and muggy weather returns to Houston to end the week, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s on Friday and Saturday, and warm nights. Both of these days should be mostly cloudy, gray, with a chance of light rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Rain accumulations don’t look impressive, but there should be enough moisture to put a damper on some outdoor plans.

The GFS model (of dewpoint temperatures) shows the forecast position of the front at midnight, as Saturday becomes Sunday. (Weather Bell)

See full post

Spring, already? Not quite, but this week will be a bit warmer

After three days of brutal, winter-like conditions, spring has arrived in Houston for another year. I kid, of course, but it sure is warm out there to start this week.

Today

Lows have only fallen into the mid- to upper-60s across Houston this morning, and some light rain and fog has developed ahead of a weak cool front that’s now moving through the region. This front is likely to stall along, or just off the northern Texas coast. With light northerly winds most areas should see partly to mostly cloudy skies today, with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows tonight will fall down to around 60 degrees.

Tuesday

As the front meanders back inland, Tuesday should see temperatures in the low 70s, along with some scattered, light rain. Fog will be possible in the morning with this moisture before mostly cloudy skies later in the day. The weak front finally gets pulled back east, off the coast, allowing temperatures Tuesday night to fall into the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

Despite some on-again, off-again light rain this week, forecast accumulations through Sunday are slight. (Weather Bell)
Despite some on-again, off-again light rain this week, forecast accumulations through Sunday are slight. (Weather Bell)

See full post

Houston’s flooding issues under the lens in a Texas Tribune piece

This week the Texas Tribune, along with ProPublica, unleashed their second in-depth piece on Houston’s flooding risk. This one, entitled “Boomtown, Flood Town,” takes a closer look at the Tax Day flood event of last April and a broader look at Houston’s flood risk in the context of policy, development, and future climate change. It’s a long, thorough read, and I highly recommend the piece. This supplements their work earlier this year about our hurricane and storm surge risk. I personally think that is one of the more important articles that exists on Houston’s vulnerability to hurricanes.

In the “Boomtown, Flood Town” piece, a number of issues related to April’s flood event and Houston development are addressed. As I said, I encourage you to check it out yourself, but in the meantime, here are some key points that I’m taking away from this

Problems

Houston’s flooding issues are important because more people die in Houston from flooding than in any other city. No other urban area in America has flooded as much as Houston in the last 40 years.

"Boomtown, Flood Town," from the Texas Tribune and ProPublica.
“Boomtown, Flood Town,” from the Texas Tribune and ProPublica.

See full post