In brief: Central and southern parts of Houston are seeing rain from an approaching tropical system this morning, which should pass near Galveston Island later today. Winds should be mostly modest, and we expect rains over the Houston region to diminish by late morning or early afternoon.
Tropical update
As of 7 am CT a low pressure system lies just off the coast of Texas, near Matagorda Bay. According to the National Hurricane Center, it is moving to the northeast at about 7 mph and should continue to track more or less along the upper Texas coast today. This will bring its rather poorly defined center near Galveston Island sometime today, likely during the early afternoon hours. Although there remains a chance this system becomes a tropical depression or storm, whether it does so largely does not matter for the greater Houston region today as it passes by. The system’s effects are now essentially baked in.
Wednesday
Most of the Houston region saw a quiet night, but areas southeast of Houston, including Pearland, Clear Lake, and League City, picked up 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. Additional showers are now spreading into the Houston metro area this morning as the tropical system nears our region. These showers are likely to persist through the morning hours before lesser coverage this afternoon. Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible, although most locations will see less than this. The impactful rains from this system are falling to the north and east of its center, so as the center moves near Galveston Island these rains should move on to east Texas and southern Louisiana.
In terms of winds, coastal areas including Galveston Island could see winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph today as the center passes nearby, with some gusts up to 30 mph. Water levels may rise 1 to 3 feet above tide levels, so some minor coastal flooding is possible.
High temperatures today will be dependent upon rain coverage in your location, but should range between 85 and 90 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
These are likely to be partly to mostly sunny days with rain chances of 10 percent or less, allowing the soaked Houston region a good opportunity to dry out. Each day should have high temperatures in the lower 90s with a good deal of humidity. Nighttime lows will be very muggy, with air temperatures likely falling only to around 80 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
A decent chance of rain, perhaps 40 or 50 percent, returns on Friday night or Saturday, but the day should still be partly sunny with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. I don’t have great confidence yet in Saturday’s rains, but these showers should be of the passing variety rather than something that persists for hours on end. Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with significantly lower rain chances. Expect highs in the lower 90s.
Next week
Most of next week looks warm and sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Temperatures have been cooler this week with the widespread showers. That likely will change next week as we experience more summer-like weather in Houston.
